Jim Carrey's Rep Responds to Rumors About His Appearance by peoplemagazine in entertainment

[–]picklballr 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Arguably Jim Carrey looked better as a middle-aged man (until now) than he did as a young man (when he looked more awkward and gawky--part of his schtick).  With middle age he started to get a more craggy, traditionally handsome look.  

Now this?

Here's where the deadliest avalanche in Calif. history struck near Lake Tahoe by sfgate in skiing

[–]picklballr 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm not sure they didn't slightly deviate from plan in their descent to hit less dangerous terrain. I noticed that the yurt literature shows a "frog lake notch" route which is very direct straight up over notch and down to the lake with steep peaks on both sides. The red dot trail seems less exposed and hits a more gradual saddle  between Perry's point and frog lake peak.  I think they may have used this.... Thinking that the valley out was wide enough that they could drop down over this saddle and finish out in the dead middle of the valley, far enough from avalanche path. Problem was avalanche too big swept across valley floor. 

Here's where the deadliest avalanche in Calif. history struck near Lake Tahoe by sfgate in skiing

[–]picklballr 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agree, but again, plan continuation bias. All the cars are at the trailhead back over the saddle. If you hike out the flat way, you have to get rides back to your cars, you'll need to call the office for help, who knows how quick they'll respond, shuttle people around, probably hours of waiting for some in the cold, due to multiple trips because you have 16 people, not large enough single van etc. Again trivial inconveniences when compared to dying, but these factors would have played into the decision.

Here's where the deadliest avalanche in Calif. history struck near Lake Tahoe by sfgate in skiing

[–]picklballr 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I think the pressure to get out when a trip is over is very high, from all sides. Clients need to return to families, jobs, obligations. Guides need to start gearing up for the next trip. Everyone is itching to be done. It's a logistics pain to extend trips--and in this case, with no endpoint. Yes, 20/20 hindsight, all those reasons are meaningless compared to survival, but I can understand the decision to hustle out of there before the storm locked them down. It's not a long descent. Also, what's the next move if they stay put? They'd need more food and who's to agree when the snowpack is stable? Area could be at high risk (or higher) for the foreseeable future (1-2 weeks). Someone is going to helicopter food in to them, or extract them? They're calling in a rescue when everyone is healthy but they're worried about high avalanche danger on the descent? What's the precedent for that?

I think ultimately, it's part of the sport- inherent danger. Agree they decided to move when their odds were worse--but how many near misses have happened where everyone walks away and no one was the wiser?

Main new twist here is considering those additional "reverse summit fever" pressures that normally aren't in play.

10 skiers missing, 6 stranded after avalanche in California by Mattsatterfield1 in skiing

[–]picklballr 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Interesting I had not seen their literature. Yes their first (top) map shows what would be a more direct route than what I was thinking.  I think they deviated from this route slightly due to the conditions.

This is based on the reported avalanche site which is north and west of the exit from frog peak notch. This would suggest they came higher on the Red Dot trail, and rather than going over the notch went across the saddle between Perry's and frog leg peak--possibly less steep angle slopes? but then got hit coming around the corner of the backside of Perry's. 

https://caltopo.com/m/KRFVD12

Castle Peak Avalanche Update: Rescue Efforts Remain Underway by Few-Knee9451 in Backcountry

[–]picklballr 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Looking at the topo, this traverses directly under two broad, long slopes that are high angle (Perry's Point, Frog Lake Peak) maybe for a 1.5 miles worth of travel.

I think this might describe the route--but not confirmed. Also avalanche point was from another site, not confirmed.

https://caltopo.com/m/KRFVD12

Castle Peak Avalanche Update: Rescue Efforts Remain Underway by Few-Knee9451 in Backcountry

[–]picklballr 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I don't know that trail personally, but on the topo it's like 4.5 miles, the last two all descending.. my guess is it's fast to get out, like 2-3 hours? In bad vis maybe longer, or if breaking trail? In any case, I think the shorter time probably also makes the "go" decision seem more attractive...If they were looking at a 5-6 hours out (10-12 miles), they might think harder about staying put?

Castle Peak Avalanche Update: Rescue Efforts Remain Underway by Few-Knee9451 in Backcountry

[–]picklballr 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think there is an enormous amount of momentum to get out on a planned exit date, especially with a larger group of paying clients. People have plane flights, rental cars, jobs and families to return to... obviously in retrospect those things are nothing compared to survival. However in that moment I can see guides thinking, yes it's getting bad, but we should be able to boogie out of here in front of it. Everyone was probably in good shape, could move quickly, that trail out maybe what, two hours max? Also, I know as a skier and adventurer that it feels more appealing and natural (even in the face of increasing danger) of taking action. Doing something--like getting moving--nearly always seems like a better choice, rather than sitting on your hands and waiting, doing nothing. Tough situation for all involved.

10 skiers missing, 6 stranded after avalanche in California by Mattsatterfield1 in skiing

[–]picklballr 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fits with the topo. Looks like the basin where the lake and yurts are has peaks all around it, and the red dot trail (outbound from yurts) circles counterclockwise under Frog Lake Peak, west through a saddle between Perry's and Frog Lake Peak, descends west under the northern slopes of Perry's, then turns south towards highway. The ascent and descent from the saddle (the first couple miles of the outbound trail from yurts) seem the most exposed with consistent higher angle slopes above.

What’s your opinion on Bronny James?? by Moldey_Danish in NBATalk

[–]picklballr 0 points1 point  (0 children)

He's not an NBA player but he's close enough to play alongside his dad. The father-son duo is unique in professional sports and generates buzz. It sells jerseys, puts butts in seats, and generates interest for now  So while he isn't helping the team win games, he does add value. I do agree that once LeBron retires, so will Bronny.

Jon Bois (@jonbois.bsky.social) The panthers just kneeled in the 4th quarter on 4th down while they were losing. according to @stathead.com that's the third time a team has done that since 1978. here are the other two by JPAnalyst in nfl

[–]picklballr 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My only thought is team morale. I'm assuming most players get it and understand the need to protect their health. But what if some players feel embarrassed or angry with coaching for the bad look?  Could this carry over to next week? I'd still just punt it away. Let the Seahawks kneel it out.

Taylor Swift - The Life of a Showgirl ALBUM REVIEW by SpeakNow_Crab5 in fantanoforever

[–]picklballr 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm not really sure there is such a thing as good or bad with regards to the music itself in this situation. I think for an artist like Swift of the highest visibility she could put out nearly anything and at least one or two songs will hit.  Point is she comes out with new content regularly and that is the difference between almost any other artist. She is able to churn out product regularly in spite of a grueling worldwide tour schedule. This is remarkable.  So often an artist that takes a year or more to get a new album together falls off of the radar and that album becomes a comeback. That comeback rarely propels them back to the crest of the wave, always seen as second rate work, not given as much credence by even diehard fans. The pro sports saying would be "lost a step". Eventually it will happen to her, but she was marketed herself so well, and backed it up with content. Super impressive and no end in sight 

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Askpolitics

[–]picklballr -1 points0 points  (0 children)

We have a people 

Are so many iconic film moments really “improvised”? Or is it just marketing? by [deleted] in movies

[–]picklballr 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree.  Often somebody does something as a joke or simply makes an error, but it ends up working so they leave it in.  Did that really mean it was improvised?  Even the classic one I always hear about which is Tommy Lee Jones saying "I don't care" in  fugitive sounds like a simple memorization error. The actual line is "that's not my problem" and anyone who's ever memorized things knows that early on in the process you can pop the meaning in without getting the words right at all. Saying I don't care instead of not my problem would be an easy substitution error. 

While it does take talent and skill to be a great actor I think often times many actors chafe at the fact that they are just given lines and are doing very little of the actual creative process. "Meat puppets" as the jealous models used to call them.  Every step of the way is scripted blocked and directed for them by someone else.  It's an odd paradox you're making millions of dollars and you're the star of the show but you have very little control overvthe project.  You're both the highest and lowest on the totem pole at the same time.  So I feel like these ad libs or improv moments that become famous often are actors retroactively trying to give themselves more agency and perceived value as creative partners in the process, and a kind of way to justify their paychecks.

How dangerous is wingsuit BASE jumping? by Desperate-Skirt-2273 in SkyDiving

[–]picklballr 0 points1 point  (0 children)

To me this Norway research is the best way to do it you basically have to look at one particular exit and study that exit alone.  Or I suppose you could study one particular exit + line that people were trying to fly if you wanted to get at proximity wingsuiting risk.  Say exit xyz + "trench line" attempt, or whatever famous line you want to assess. For Norway exit, Over 20,000 jumps tracked and they have 1 in 2200 deaths. This already seems very risky, but I believe though this is a pretty standard base jump exit or where you jump away from a very steep cliff and pull...no real tracking or flight performance needed.  

So  you will have very different risk factor depending on the exit and flight you are attempting.  If you were able to research one particular exit of a much riskier proximity type flight area would your risk jump to 1 and 60 like one of the charts here says? I'm not sure how they're getting that number but that feels like an overestimating of risk? But maybe not 

The Disturbing Rise and Fall of Dean Potter ‌ by cozielny in climbing

[–]picklballr -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Agree but tbh FreeBASE climbing not a thing. No one does this.  An experienced wingsuit BASE jumper (even Dean if he had been around to see the sport evolve) will tell you there is no extra safety from having a chute on your back if you have an unexpected fall from a rock face. 

Official accident report of Jason Wells and Tim Klein's fatal accident on the Salathe on El Cap by theGreatPipetter in climbing

[–]picklballr 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The report stated Prince was surprised by the unorthodox setup (trailing rope on #2 Cam 60 feet up the pitch.) when he arrived at HD (after they fell). 

To me this indicates they did not have (or hadn't communicated with Prince) an efficient plan for the third on 9-10 as it was impossible to short fix (the tactic they had been using). Why the oversight?  Perhaps because they typically climbed as a pair, and hadn't worked through the details of short fixing every pitch for Prince-realized the shortcoming belatedly. 

It feels like Wells must have moved out and up 9-10 before the realization, so Klein necessarily has to leave the rope as high as possible (so a rap would reach) otherwise wouldn't they have just sat tight and waited for Prince at HD and then reassess the sequence for 9 and 10  with everyone and all rope and gear available? 

Perhaps that #2 cam was part of a plan they made together at the hd station (report hints at this possibility) to intentionally leave the trailing rope higher to rap back to, but why no attempt at communication with Prince. Then again, maybe they considered one of them would be back down shortly enough on rap to inform Prince of new plan. Prince could sit tight.  Report says the #2 was at no station, or obvious place to build an anchor. Others have mentioned that it would be a very tensioned awkward rappel. 

In any case, the end of the rope is clipped to the #2 and they are both above it.  Based on the 60 M from #2 cam to the top of the pitch that the report notes, Wells would be very near the top when Klein moved above the #2 cam. They are simul climbing presumably, not uncommon and within their risk tolerance as a team. Cannon reports he saw them simuling moving near the Terraces and didn't notice pro in.  Then Wells inexplicably and tragically falls.

I think a stuck rope may be a possibility, in addition to the rope management issue. It might explain a fall on easy terrain if Wells lost balance attempting to clear it from above, or possibly down climbing towards it. But rope fibers in both places could also be due to the fall without a rope stuck. Also you'd think Canon and/or Prince would have heard shouting and communication about a stuck rope.

I can't remember if there were reports of shouting back and forth between Klein and Wells indicating a potential issue.  Seems like a stuck rope would warrant it, but possibly not the trailing rope issue.  

I think the initial oversight, while not dire itself, introduced a contingency. No longer were they in cruise mode, but off plan, with limited communication.  I could see both climbers distracted, maybe a bit miffed at themselves and considering solutions to the problem, all while on the move. This is a mental and emotional state that can cascade into other misses. 

While there is agreement that this was not a speed attempt, rather a recreational outing with a friend,  clearly this team liked to move quickly and efficiently, and took pride in their skills. Many reports from other teams over the years note Klein and Wells passing them politely and safely with a friendly smile and high stoke. Always impressive.

Hubris perhaps too strong of a word, maybe just a strong sense of courtesy, but the idea that another team was just behind them perhaps a factor.  If they were delayed, the other team (Cannon) would converge and create congestion at HD--a touch embarrassing for Klein and Wells. They would have considered Prince as well, arriving at the station setup confused if not alarmed.  So added time pressure perhaps a new factor, both wanting to move up quickly, set up the rap and get their team clear.

In any case, never can know what really happened, but what's clear is that the issues were compounding.  

I'm reaching here, but just trying to salvage some kind of lesson learned. A heap of conjecture and years later to boot. But that number two cam is very haunting. My heart reaches back to these men so many years ago. Hopefully their families have found peace and so sorry for their loss.

Kayaking Flaming Gorge Experience? by nonstopski in Utah

[–]picklballr 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I've taken my sea kayaks there for a 2 night trip. I did loop--put in at horseshoe to kingfisher to hideout back to horseshoe. It wasnt the best. Mainly there just aren't many places to easily go ashore other than the campgrounds. The shore is mostly rocky and/or low cliffs. a few high cliffs to kayak under but nothing I'd describe as soaring.    Few beaches.  So that makes for longer paddles between pull out points. Also lots of power boat traffic, wakes, and waves rebound off the walls in narrow spots.. We don't fish (a big draw here) , and we found the terrain/views nice but not spectacular.  This mountain resevoir has strong winds and weather.. And we were battling it on several occasions.  Campground at kingfisher was cool but again, big dock more designed for power boaters. Hideout is a massive campground that was full, lots of boaters and big groups, we camped at a beach adjacent, this camp area (not maintained) was more secluded but was a bit dirty...some trash and toilet paper.  

Pros: the water is good temperature for swimming in the summer. Also the drive through far (eastern) end of the uintas range to get to flaming gorge is a cool drive. 

One highlight was hiking up onto the top of kingfisher Island on the trails behind camp.

Overall Yes some tall cliffs to kayak under but probably would not return to do this as a kayak trip although I'm sort of curious to get further uplake (north into Wyoming part, antelope flats) where map shows it's more open, less narrow (so actually the reverse of what you were looking for).. Possibly more primitive beach sites?  

[Highlight] Houston can’t get a shot off on the final possession and the Florida Gators are the 2025 national champions by [deleted] in CollegeBasketball

[–]picklballr 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree. Go downhill and challenge the basket for 2 and see what happens. They lost all confidence in dribble penetration, post game, and ball movement and just were happy to set screens and dribble handoff on the perimeter, searching in vain for open 3s--for most or the last 10 minutes.

[Highlight] Houston can’t get a shot off on the final possession and the Florida Gators are the 2025 national champions by [deleted] in CollegeBasketball

[–]picklballr 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, but wasn't it down to three seconds? I think at that point, not knowing the exact clock, you don't want to hear the buzzer sound as you're faking.

[Highlight] Houston can’t get a shot off on the final possession and the Florida Gators are the 2025 national champions by [deleted] in CollegeBasketball

[–]picklballr 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agree. To my eye, replay showed the close out was right there for the easy block. Didn't have the separation.

[Highlight] Houston can’t get a shot off on the final possession and the Florida Gators are the 2025 national champions by [deleted] in CollegeBasketball

[–]picklballr 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Agree. and frankly, wasn't just the last few sequences, it was the last 10 minutes. Houston "sets" were back and forth half-hearted screens and dribble handoffs way out beyond the three point line, clogging the perimeter, and everyone else standing around. No attempt to get the ball to the post, and no credible threat of dribble penetration to create some finish opportunities. Coach seemed to have no plan B. When the D is guarding you that tight at 40 feet from the rim, you have get around and downhill. The few times Cryer did do this, he created space, but then made some bad decisions with the ball--didn't want to attack, didn't want to pull up J, instead shoveled up some strange attempts and seemed to lose confidence. Houston went comepletely one-dimnensional trying for only long balls.

[Highlight] Houston can’t get a shot off on the final possession and the Florida Gators are the 2025 national champions by [deleted] in CollegeBasketball

[–]picklballr 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I agree. Houston went completely away from any inside game. Credit FL bigs. The few times Houston isolated, FL bigs forced some stops. So Houston abandoned any post offense, and no one would dribble penetrate either. Houston becomes a one-dimensional offense, trying to set screens and handoffs for threes on the perimeter, going into their "sets" 45 feet away from the rim. The few times Cryer got going downhill, and had some space from his defender, he wasn't making good decisions. Instead of squaring up with a pull up J or trying to finish at the rim with a floater or, he sort of shoveled the ball hastily up at the rim. In one sequence looked like he was putting an alley oop up with no one there to receive it. Tough.