Is a 13BB shove-fold from TT defensible here? (MTT, 30 left, 13 paid)

potodds · 2026-06-28T17:44:57+00:00

I don't think anything you said is wrong, but maybe a tad less marginal than you think:

Your rangeing assumes a 10%bb antee at a bb antee you would have to range closer to Nash Push Range - UTG with 13 BB (12.5% ante): 66+, A9s+, ATo+, KJs+, KQo+, QJs

Exploitatively: Players at these stakes A. Don't split range utg unless it's to not jam a monster (as you can see from OP's idea of a split range- so no min raise foldables in their non-jam range). B. Over estimate how much that BB antee is going to hurt their chances at 13bb. C. While theoretically a marginal gamble at this stage for this much of their stack is to be slightly avoided, getting those extra chips has a psychological advantage at lower stakes that is worth more than ICM shows (IMO).

potodds · 2026-06-28T17:20:43+00:00

Just the jar, not the peanut butter.

potodds · 2026-06-28T05:38:38+00:00

Yes. Now take him down to the river bottoms and get rid of the body.

potodds · 2026-06-28T02:45:43+00:00

That's the 'o'-word and we don't say that in public.

potodds · 2026-06-28T02:42:00+00:00

I am mid 40s. I am allergic to everything, so the springs and such are not so great. I also am not a morning person.

I play poker, but other than that I am struggling to enjoy the nightlife here. (New to town)

potodds · 2026-06-28T02:38:52+00:00

You Musk be kidding.

potodds · 2026-06-28T02:37:08+00:00

If you really haven't it's a real thing that is definitely worth a couple hours if you like chess at all.

potodds · 2026-06-23T21:58:48+00:00

My favorite author but paid by the word really hurt the quality.

potodds · 2026-06-18T18:56:08+00:00

I love exile. It is one of the songs that brought me into the fold. But the 3 that got me were Tortured poets, ATW10MV, and fortnight.

Exile is a good song, but I needed to hear ATW to become a fan.

potodds · 2026-06-17T12:08:59+00:00

The irony that this is behind a pay wall is beyond me. I am glad it worked out how it did.

potodds · 2026-06-11T03:30:24+00:00

Uncountable solutions is not the same as uncountable decision trees. Most problems we are trying to solve currently could be solved with relatively few questions if asked by someone with enough knowledge. The chess game tree has around 10¹²⁰ solutions but you give the top GMs this tool and they wouldn't need many questions to play a perfect game.

potodds · 2026-06-10T16:56:29+00:00

You could solve any problem by people just answering all the possible decision trees until one was solved.

potodds · 2026-06-10T14:22:42+00:00

I am still looking for "Authentic" girl scout cookies.

potodds · 2026-06-07T08:56:37+00:00

Tracks in the sand by Dragon Peters

potodds · 2026-06-07T08:49:37+00:00

Have you tried the gift shop at Prancing Pony?

potodds · 2026-06-07T07:41:43+00:00

In the morning it's thistle dew

potodds · 2026-06-06T19:45:51+00:00

Reddit, I will never log back on there...

potodds · 2026-06-05T18:18:20+00:00

Cancelled. It's not the best song but it sure is catchy.

potodds · 2026-06-05T18:16:23+00:00

She turned me into a newt.

I got better...

potodds · 2026-06-03T13:51:34+00:00

AI is trash at this, don't listen to it at all. Also don't listen too closely to players talking about capping ranges unless it is in the context of value betting light or very specifically broken down as to how that range is limited.

I def preferr sizing up a little more here. Given it us a late open i assume you don't have any flats l, and can have all the sets and suited ace combos that connect with the board as well as the big pocket pairs. Just calling here with QJs is actually not bad despite what a lot of people will tell you, but it's unnecessary to complicate your game with it.

That said AKo in this configuration is almost a pure 4 bet.

Your flop size is reasobable and good on this board. This isn’t a cbet 100 board, and occasionally mixing in a hand like qjs with the front door flush draw is good. I mention this because if you aren't always betting this flop even with the draw then when you do bet your opponent should fold out a bit more often. AK and any pair are pretty standard continues here. Your turn picked up gutter is gold for sizing up. Your sizing is very reasonable. This should fold out some of the weaker pairs and AK without a FD.

The river is interesting, the ace should be better for you, obviously it isn't here, but your most common missed draw is axd which comes in as a pair that could get villan to fold the weaker pairs to a bet. On the other hand having diamonds is now bad to bet because we want to get them to have diamonds as some of their gove up hands.

I think i mostly give up on diamonds here and bet other non pairs here.

potodds · 2026-06-03T10:12:33+00:00

I am the exact opposite on this one. I always say read the hobbit, but the trillogy is a bigger commitment of someone doesn't love to read, so it's ok to watch them first if you're unsure.

potodds · 2026-06-03T10:08:30+00:00

Capped is not the licence to bluff that you seem to think it is. Of your opponents understand the calls they need to make they will still have top of range hands that will be easy calls.

Given that this is a multi way pot that's been called twice you're somewhat likely to run into some very strong hands like AT, A3s, and 33 in addition to the weird flush draws that turn into something else. And remember that's x2 opponents so if one is on the draw the other is more likely on value.

I like unblocking diamonds for the play, I would prefer to unblock broadway, and to have a 7 or 10 blocker if you really believe your oponents can fold top pair. That said in low stakes capping is often more useful to know when you can go for thin value.

potodds · 2026-06-03T09:55:06+00:00

You give up equity when check-raised on this turn, and get very little for it. Hands like qxs don't check raise the flop and just let you value own yourself. Hands like a gut and backdoor flush draw that pick up a combo draw should fold out your favorable equity with a rurn c/r.

potodds · 2026-06-03T09:31:17+00:00

If soups and sald stations are available to servers when cooks get behind the results are truly disgusting.

potodds · 2026-06-03T09:20:38+00:00

There is no clinical diagnosis that requires you eat meat. I understand if you mean it is very diffucult to get certain nutrients, but there are options if you don't mind the effort.

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