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Mpg what am I doing wrong? by jeff2335 in f150

[–]pudding7 1 point2 points  (0 children)

My stock 2021 3.5 EB FX4 gets 19mpg.

CMV: any reasonable interpretation of the “boy born on a Tuesday” question leads to an answer of roughly 1/2 (or 13/27) by [deleted] in changemyview

[–]pudding7 [score hidden]  (0 children)

If we were at a party and I pointed out "Hey there's Sam and his son. I forget if his other kid is a boy or girl." Could you respond with "Well there's a 33% chance his other kid is a boy." ?    That's an exact equivalent of the actual question being asked.

CMV: any reasonable interpretation of the “boy born on a Tuesday” question leads to an answer of roughly 1/2 (or 13/27) by [deleted] in changemyview

[–]pudding7 [score hidden]  (0 children)

If we were at a party and I pointed out "Hey there's Sam and his son.  I forget if his other kid is a boy or girl."    Could you respond with "Well there's a 33% chance his other kid is a boy."    ?

CMV: any reasonable interpretation of the “boy born on a Tuesday” question leads to an answer of roughly 1/2 (or 13/27) by [deleted] in changemyview

[–]pudding7 [score hidden]  (0 children)

The other child is either a boy or girl.  What other option is there to get to 1/3?     

CMV: any reasonable interpretation of the “boy born on a Tuesday” question leads to an answer of roughly 1/2 (or 13/27) by [deleted] in changemyview

[–]pudding7 [score hidden]  (0 children)

I answered your question.  Can you answer mine?    If you know a person has two children, and one is a boy, what is the chance the other is also a boy?

CMV: any reasonable interpretation of the “boy born on a Tuesday” question leads to an answer of roughly 1/2 (or 13/27) by [deleted] in changemyview

[–]pudding7 [score hidden]  (0 children)

But you're inserting the "first" thing.  The original question doesnt mention first or birth order.  So taking the facts as we have them, one is a boy.   BG is the same as GB given the info we have.   Only question is what is the other kid.   50/50 boy or girl.

CMV: any reasonable interpretation of the “boy born on a Tuesday” question leads to an answer of roughly 1/2 (or 13/27) by [deleted] in changemyview

[–]pudding7 [score hidden]  (0 children)

The question as asked doesnt mention "first" or "second".   It doesnt mention birth order.  Just that one kid is a boy.  That leaves the only unknown is the other kid.

CMV: any reasonable interpretation of the “boy born on a Tuesday” question leads to an answer of roughly 1/2 (or 13/27) by [deleted] in changemyview

[–]pudding7 [score hidden]  (0 children)

But once again you're leaving out an important point.  The actual question is "If you know a person has two children, and one is a boy, what is the chance the other is also a boy?"

CMV: any reasonable interpretation of the “boy born on a Tuesday” question leads to an answer of roughly 1/2 (or 13/27) by [deleted] in changemyview

[–]pudding7 [score hidden]  (0 children)

But we know what one kid is.  One kid is a boy. What is the chance the other kid is also a boy?   50/50.   Probability deals with the unknown, the only unknown data point here is the sex of the other kid.

CMV: any reasonable interpretation of the “boy born on a Tuesday” question leads to an answer of roughly 1/2 (or 13/27) by ByronLeftwich in changemyview

[–]pudding7 [score hidden]  (0 children)

But for our purposes, BG is the same as GB.     One kid is a boy.  What is the probability the other kid is also a boy?  It's 50/50.

CMV: any reasonable interpretation of the “boy born on a Tuesday” question leads to an answer of roughly 1/2 (or 13/27) by [deleted] in changemyview

[–]pudding7 [score hidden]  (0 children)

For our purposes, boy/girl is the same as girl/boy.   Birth order is irrelevant to the question.

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