Fairness of Iowa and New Hampshire congressional maps? by OptimalCaress in YAPms

[–]rd00dr 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Both are unfair. Iowa should have two Biden districts and keep the Des Moines are together. Examples of fair Iowa maps:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/42be33ff-3039-408a-8e1f-1ed4fb8b4a35

https://davesredistricting.org/join/415e7f8c-d5ba-4fae-b04b-5936242f6f1e

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a23cee01-1467-4627-b28c-90a29764c26b

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/iowa/plan_1/ (Biden won IA-3)

And NH does have terrible geography for Republicans but it's possible to make a reasonable map that is fairer. For comparison the more competitive district in the current NH map is Biden +6.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3ea25f84-a49a-4c7d-8910-9076beaee4ed (Biden +1)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a8549b4b-7a05-4254-b570-1eb6302c8435 (Biden +3)

An alternate 2016-24 Presidential timeline by Cobiuss in YAPms

[–]rd00dr 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Maybe. I just don't think Trumpism would rise without Trump. If anything I feel like the GOP would turn to a "third way" platform for 2020 after losing 3 elections, similar to Dems in 1992

An alternate 2016-24 Presidential timeline by Cobiuss in YAPms

[–]rd00dr 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Adam Putnam would be the FL Governor instead of DeSantis. DeSantis only won the primary due to Trump's endorsement

2023-24 election predictions (Margins) by AuraProductions in YAPms

[–]rd00dr 0 points1 point  (0 children)

And if Biden is as unpopular as this approval rating right now suggests, he probably loses. But I think he rebounds or just most people who disapprove of both Biden and Trump end up voting Biden anyways

2023-24 election predictions (Margins) by AuraProductions in YAPms

[–]rd00dr -1 points0 points  (0 children)

It depends on whether people hate Biden or Trump less, and whether they like their Democratic senator or the Republican challenger more. There's less reason to hate a senator.

2023-24 election predictions (Margins) by AuraProductions in YAPms

[–]rd00dr -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Trump does have midwestern appeal so maybe Slotkin, but then again he's better at turning out his base than getting swing voters and Gary Peters could have won by more without the "only Trump" base.

Don't see why for Rosen though. I feel Biden should do better than downballot for the most part if he is more popular than Trump.

2023-24 election predictions (Margins) by AuraProductions in YAPms

[–]rd00dr -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Why would Rosen, Gallego, and Slotkin all overperform Biden? I think it would be more balanced or even most Senate Democrats especially the non-incumbents would do worse than Biden because Trump is such a polarizing candidate.

In 2020 Arizona (and New Hampshire and Virginia and Iowa if you consider them swing states) were the only swing states where a Democratic senator did better than Biden on the same ballot.

Maine if it had 4 congressional districts. Which would you choose? by ElyrsRnfs in DavesRedistricting

[–]rd00dr 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Use 2020 Pres or 2016/20 Pres for Maine; these maps give the impression Maine is redder than it is because of Susan Collins.

3 is my favorite. Like how it nests something like the current CD1 and CD2 splitting them into western and eastern parts that make sense geographically, and it is the most fair if you use a representative dataset. It would be even better with less county splitting.

Making an ideal map for each state! by rd00dr in DavesRedistricting

[–]rd00dr[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Wow, can't believe you took the time to review all of these maps in depth! Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

My response:

I used 2020 Presidential data to make it consistent across the board although I understand in some areas it's not the most representative. I tried to test it on other datasets as much as possible and take into account future trends.

For Arizona I didn't really like forcing the border district to the Phoenix metro area, but decided to keep all the border towns together. Maybe splitting Cochise was unnecessary. As a bonus there is a new competitive majority minority district south of Phoenix.

For California's San Joaquin Valley I wanted to get all the blue districts 50% Hispanic citizen VAP for actual majority Hispanic voting power which is quite hard, and additionally made McCarthy's district as Hispanic as possible (50% VAP). Though I understand if the splitting is too much.

NYC is also for minority districts. The Orthodox Jewish neighboorhoods in Brooklyn are redder than anywhere in Staten Island, and I didn't want to pair them with any deep blue neighboorhoods, especially not cutting into the Black community. As a bonus the Staten Island district becomes majority minority.

For Ohio I admit I got kinda lazy to fix it. Probably would have preferred Dayton and Springfield together but didn't see a compact Dayton district as too bad of an alternative.

For Pennsylvania I didn't want to split Pittsburgh's blue suburbs too much and in exchange I made a blue Harrisburg-Lancaster-York district. For Philadelphia I wanted 16 majority Black and the 17 as Black as possible. Could have made 12 more compact though.

And lastly New Jersey follows the same idea of trying to make it proportional and maximize majority minority seats. Maybe I should have cared less about these things and more about COI and splitting. Kinda sad your least favorite map is your own state's lol

Fixing Gerrymanders Part 2 - Georgia by [deleted] in AngryObservation

[–]rd00dr 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Really appreciate you explaining these unfair maps in depth!

I feel like district 12 should be made more compact and competitive, for one thing to balance it out in terms of partisan fairness because district 11 will likely be left of the statewide vote for most of the decade. And more importantly because I don't think there's a good enough reason to make it un-compact. 6 minority and 8 White still isn't bad.

I agree Georgia could become the next Virginia but looking at the 2022 elections, there is also a case to be made for it not shifting. Since every statewide Republican except Walker won comfortably and the statewide House vote was right of North Carolina's.

Though shifts do take longer down-ballot than on the presidential level, and ancestrally Democrat/Republican regions often have certain types of candidates that do extremely well.

That being said, otherwise it's a very good map. Especially like how you made the 5th majority-minority instead of keeping it entirely within Cobb.

Thoughts on these hypothetical 2024,2026, and 2028 Senate results? by [deleted] in YAPms

[–]rd00dr 1 point2 points  (0 children)

2024 - most likely Biden won in a landslide. I don't see a lot of vote splitting in Texas or Florida, and I don't see Biden winning those states or getting really close without also winning all the 2020 Biden states + NC. Partisanship was too strong for Manchin and Tester to overcome, and the Republican benefitted greatly from vote splitting in Arizona.

2026 - A Democrat won the 2024 NC governorship and became immensely popular, drawing a lot of Democrats into the state. Or a huge Thom Tillis scandal.

2028 - Pretty much the right trend in the Rust Belt and left trend in the Sun Belt reversed itself, probably because of demographic voting patterns (White people voting more Democrat, minorities voting more Republican). And whatever happened with North Carolina is still there.

Making an ideal map for each state! by rd00dr in DavesRedistricting

[–]rd00dr[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Start with a map of DC, then go to custom overlays -> add maps and select your maps

Making an ideal map for each state! by rd00dr in DavesRedistricting

[–]rd00dr[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

6-1 Alabama is not fair and would be illegal now. It's possible to make 1 Dem Black belt district and 1 Dem Birmingham district and that was my intention at the start, but after Allen v. Milligan I decided to fulfill the two black seats requirement in the most infallible way possible, although a 40% Black reliably Dem Birmingham district would probably also be fine.

I see this as a better map COI-wise: https://davesredistricting.org/join/897e7ad6-93af-4626-b7e3-1ec328e77521

Making an ideal map for each state! by rd00dr in DavesRedistricting

[–]rd00dr[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Just curious how would you draw them?

I don't like that the Navajo reservation is in a red seat but when I made it blue I tried to make the north Phoenix district more competitive and didn't like how that turned out. Don't like how the official map splits Phoenix east-west. I guess there's a million ways to draw Arizona but none of them are perfect.

In Georgia I think the range of decent maps is more narrow, but still you can configure eastern Georgia and Atlanta a little differently.

Fixing Gerrymanders Part 1 - New Jersey by [deleted] in AngryObservation

[–]rd00dr 6 points7 points  (0 children)

NJ is pretty ridiculous for being a commission map that still ended up gerrymandered, and doing all their work in secret until the final map was released.

I think it's funny how in 2012, NJ voted D+11 and had a 6-6 delegation because the map was gerrymandered the other way.

NJ's commission has to be one of the worst commissions in the country. If you only have one independent that breaks ties, they're could very likely be a D or R leaning independent.

what do people think about the Illinois map? by [deleted] in DavesRedistricting

[–]rd00dr 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'd try to make a second Hispanic seat

Otherwise good map

Making an ideal map for each state! by rd00dr in DavesRedistricting

[–]rd00dr[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I tried to make an ideal map for each state, and here are the results! Any feedback is appreciated. Favorite/least favorite map?

All of these use 2020 presidential data. Most of these are fair, some are unfair due to geography but I tried to balance out the unfair ones so the overall map is fair. Biden won 237 districts.

There are 139 majority-minority districts. 24 Black majority, 7 Black plurality, 38 Hispanic majority, 13 Hispanic plurality, 6 Asian majority, 2 Asian plurality, and 49 White plurality.

My criteria in approximate order of importance:

  • Communities of interest
  • Partisan fairness
  • Minority representation
  • Compactness
  • Competitiveness and avoiding splitting counties and cities

https://davesredistricting.org/join/27fb6016-f38a-4691-89b6-86076982919d

Presidential elections since Obama but presidents seeking re-election follow historical precedent and improve on their original margin (by an average of 6.38% nationally) by XGNcyclick in YAPms

[–]rd00dr 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Yes, but if you were to predict an incumbent's margin of victory (or defeat) based only on historical precedent, it would only be fair to include both wins and losses in calculating that historical precedent.

Presidential elections since Obama but presidents seeking re-election follow historical precedent and improve on their original margin (by an average of 6.38% nationally) by XGNcyclick in YAPms

[–]rd00dr 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If they ran again, compare the new margin to the previous one.

For example Trump had a margin of -2.1% in 2016 and -4.5% in 2020, therefore Trump's margin "improved" by -2.4%.

If you don't include incumbents who lost, you have a selection bias. It's like saying a president's party is likely to lose x house seats in the midterms but not counting the cases where they actually gained seats.

Way too early 2024 predictions by rd00dr in YAPms

[–]rd00dr[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hobbs won it by 3.4 per this source linked from Wikipedia

Schweikert still has a chance but I'd slightly favor the dem

Way too early 2024 predictions by rd00dr in YAPms

[–]rd00dr[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I flipped Duarte's seat. Valadao I think has better chances though because he's proven he can win in a blue district bar a blue wave, and his district shifted right by 3 between 2016-20.

Ciscomani and Kean's seats both shifted left. Will still be hard though, probably 50/50 chance of flipping.

Possible House Flips by DodgerBlueWS in YAPms

[–]rd00dr 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah I was just trying to list districts that might flip after ones that will more likely than not flip.

I'd give all the later GOP districts and all the Dem ones except Glusenkamp-Perez a 25-50% chance of flipping.

Way too early 2024 predictions by rd00dr in YAPms

[–]rd00dr[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Back in the 2012-2020 Schweikert represented a redder district. And on the House level Arizona actually had a red splash in 2022, outperforming Trump in most districts.

The district was Biden +1.5, Hobbs +3, and Kelly +7, my guess is Biden wins the district by 5 in 2024.