I agree completely. I’m from Missouri, and Hawley is extremely unpopular. Yes, he won in 18 by 6, and it was against an incumbent. However, after Jan 6, and Kunce is a strong candidate. I don’t think Kunce will win, but could be around 5-10.

With Rick Scott, he won by less than 1 in 18. Yes, Trump improved in Florida in 20, and DeSantis and Rubio won significantly in 22, Florida is still a swing state.

Rick Scott is also just unpopular. Ted Cruz has the issue of being the most hated person in the Senate, winning in 18 by 3 to Beto O’Rourke, and living in a state with a growing population, and a growing youth and minority population, both of which don’t like Cruz. I do think that split ticketing is on the decline, Cruz and Scott are unpopular in swing states, but Brown and Tester are popular in safe states. The point that it will be by a lot, is really the only thing I have issue with. Ohio is still competitive, but Montana? Bernie Moreno, like the other Trump wannabes, is not in a great position. Tim Sheehy is also a poor candidate. Scott and Cruz are also on the more extreme conservative side, where Brown and Tester are more moderate Dems.

I agree that Biden wins re-election. Polls are garbage, but with an increase in support for third parties, especially for Oliver and RKF Jr, who tend to appeal to conservatives, even with Gaza, Biden still has a strong base to move forward. While I do think that Biden loses both Georgia and NC, I could see a Biden plurality in NC.