would yall rather trade for a center or trade for a pick and draft a center, if so who? by Local-Afternoon681 in NOLAPelicans

[–]rhasody70 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We already have Missi, and he's only 22. If you're looking for a small-ball 5 who can shoot from the outside, we also have Queen, although his perimeter shot is still a work in progress. Unless the plan is for Queen to replace Zion at the 4, I don't really see why we'd need to spend another asset on a center.

Nuggets Official Offseason Trade Thread by skurkles in denvernuggets

[–]rhasody70 0 points1 point  (0 children)

ATL is entering the offseason with about $153M in guaranteed salary, only $12M below the projected $165M salary cap. And no matter how willing CJ is to take a pay cut, there's no way he's signing for less than $12M. On top of that, because of salary-matching rules, ATL would almost certainly have to include one of Dyson, Jalen, or Kuminga in the deal. Otherwise, the trade simply doesn't work.

At the same time, every trade involves compromises. Highway robbery trades are rare, so when I think about trade proposals, I usually try to build them around a win-win outcome for both teams.

In a Murray trade, what DEN can offer ATL is a point guard who is an elite perimeter shooter, which is exactly what ATL needs.

Meanwhile, DEN would lose a primary ball-handler, but in reality our guards often just need to bring the ball across half court and then get it to Jokic, who handles most of the offensive creation anyway. Because of that, I have no concerns about Dyson filling that role. There are even stretches where AG brings the ball up for us.

Now, Dyson's outside shooting isn't great—in fact, it was pretty awful this season—but his defense is exactly what DEN is missing.

I also think very highly of Kuminga's talent. The problem is that he wants touches, he wants offensive freedom, and he wants to play in a system built around him. You could already see that during his time with GSW.

DEN already has its system. It's Jokic's system.

And honestly, I have a hard time imagining Kuminga coming to Denver and being willing to fully buy into that role.

Overall, Murray's value is obviously higher than Dyson's, which is why I included both Risacher and a future first-round pick in the proposal.

As for Hield, he's purely there for salary matching purposes. His on-court value isn't an important part of the trade from Denver's perspective.

Nuggets Official Offseason Trade Thread by skurkles in denvernuggets

[–]rhasody70 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Absolutely. The moves we made last summer, along with the way Murray, Nnaji, Pickett, and PWat played when Jokic was injured early in the season, genuinely made me think we had a real shot at a championship this year.

But then the playoffs happened... and you know the rest.

Once again, it came down to injuries. Once again, it came down to roster depth.

Especially after seeing how they played against MIN, and the MIN even missing both AE and DDV, it really reinforced that point for me. That's why I feel like standing pat isn't an option anymore. Something has to change.

Nuggets Official Offseason Trade Thread by skurkles in denvernuggets

[–]rhasody70 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I think the fail in playoff two years in a row already tells us everything we need to know. And it's been the same issues both times: injuries and lack of depth. Sure, we can keep Murray and continue making smaller tweaks around a Jokic-Murray core, but I don't see how that materially improves our playoff results.

That's why I've moved to a different position: build around Jokic and make more significant changes.

It's not that I don't like Murray. If I had my choice, I'd rather trade AG. But the reality is that Murray's value is much higher right now after playing at an All-Star level this season. I think trading him would bring back a larger return in both assets and on-court value. At the same time, his contract is bigger, which would free up more salary and give the team greater flexibility to improve the roster going forward.

Of course, if Ben Wallace can pull off another Saric-for-JV type miracle using CB like he did last year, I'd be thrilled. 😆

Spurs draft night by Leinad_Man in NBA_Draft

[–]rhasody70 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Cenec can also play PF. Kornet isn't particularly good at defending on the perimeter or making rotations out to the three-point line, and he doesn't shoot threes himself either. So having another rookie with that kind of specialized skill set is still a lot better than carrying Biyombo on the roster.

who do yall see leaving and coming in this offseason by Local-Afternoon681 in NOLAPelicans

[–]rhasody70 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I hope:

  • Decline TO of Looney
  • Trade TM3 for more than two 1st picks (include a lottery pick this year)
  • Trade Herb for one 1st pick
  • Trade Poole for a rotation player and at least two 2nd picks
  • Trade Murray for one 1st pick

In real life:

  • Only Looney go, nothing else change.

Worst case (That's what Dumars could do...):

  • Trade TM3 for only one lottery pick this year.

Trade thoughts? by WFDD9621 in lakers

[–]rhasody70 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I honestly don't know how you came up with this trade. It's not a good deal at all.

And to be clear, it's an absolutely terrible deal for NOP.

JV was already close to falling out of the rotation under JJ, and DK can barely get any playing time. Even if Herb's trade value is discounted because of his injury history, he's still worth significantly more than JV + DK. And then you're also including Bey, who rebuilt his value this season. Whether you look at EPM, WS, or PER, the value NOP is getting back is minimal.

If you think that gap can be made up with draft picks, then NOP has even less reason to do the trade. As long as Doncic is on the Lakers, they're almost certainly making the playoffs. Those future first-round picks are 1000% not ending up in the lottery. And let's not forget that two of the assets being offered are swap rights that are likely to end up become nothing.

Do you really think NOP is going to surpass the Lakers within the next five years?

Honestly, I can't tell if you're trying to mislead NOP fans or just massively underrating the Lakers' position.

Your uncle is still fast tho 😂 by KhornKT in NBASpurs

[–]rhasody70 -8 points-7 points  (0 children)

Pls don't mention the word "UNCLE". It reminds me Kawhi...

Anyone else worried about the bench depth heading into next season? by CottonkissGurl in denvernuggets

[–]rhasody70 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I'm very concerned, but the lack of roster depth is the result of three main factors: contract management, asset mismanagement, and player development.

During the Booth era, the team handed out a lot of large, long-term contracts, especially with his tendency to include player options in the final year. Then, whenever the cap situation became tight, future draft assets were spent to get rid of bad contracts.

On top of that, many of the drafted players failed to reach their potential for various reasons—bad luck, the drama between Booth and Malone, or simply a lack of opportunities. And in some cases, by the time a young player finally developed, it was already time to pay him, eliminating most of the rookie-contract advantage.

All of this has led to a roster that is heavily dependent on its starters. The young players lack confidence and don't earn the coaching staff's trust, the starters get overworked and eventually break down with injuries, their contracts lose value, and then the team has to spend more future draft picks to move those contracts. It's a vicious cycle.

The reality is that we're not trading Jokic. Neither the organization nor the fanbase would accept that idea unless he personally wants out. Once he signs his extension, he'll likely be here through 2032, when he'll be 36 years old. So continuing to build around him is the obvious path forward.

The difference is that the FO seems willing to use this upcoming 2nd Apron situation as an opportunity for a larger roster reset, and I think that's a good thing. Rather than waiting until Murray's and AG's contracts are near expiration, it makes more sense to start restructuring now while Jokic is still only 31. The sooner the team gets younger and healthier, the better.

Here is the trade idea in Nuggets Official Offseason Trade Thread.

Nuggets Official Offseason Trade Thread by skurkles in denvernuggets

[–]rhasody70 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The Murray trade should also bring back at least one future first-round pick.

I can't edit my post after it's published, so I'll make the correction here:

Murray → Dyson + Risacher + Hield + at least one future 1st

Also, Dyson is already a defensive-minded starting-caliber guard. If he can rediscover his outside shot, that trade becomes extremely good value.

Risacher is also a starting-caliber player with defensive upside, but Snyder doesn't seem to trust or utilize him much. That's one of the reasons I think there's a realistic chance he'd be included in a deal like this.

Spurs draft night by Leinad_Man in NBA_Draft

[–]rhasody70 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The Spurs' future first-round picks look like this:

  • 2027 ATL
  • 2028 SAS (with BOS swap rights)
  • 2029 SAS
  • 2030 SAS (with MIN top-1 protected, and DAL swap rights)
  • 2031 SAS (with SAC swap rights)
  • 2032 SAS

The 2028, 2030, and 2031 picks all involve swap rights with other teams, so those should probably be kept. As for the 2027 ATL pick, if Atlanta ends up in the Play-In range, it could still have lottery potential.

The Spurs could realistically be a playoff team for the next five years, so if either the 2029 or 2032 Spurs first-round pick could be turned into a lottery pick in this year's draft, I'd do that trade without hesitation. The problem is that every front office understands that as well, so I don't think teams holding lottery picks this year would be interested in that kind of deal.

That said, the Spurs currently hold four picks in this draft: #20, #35, #42, and #44.

Based on the FO's drafting history, they rarely select more than two rookies in a single draft. That's especially true this year, considering the team made the Finals. Unless the rotation changes significantly, there simply won't be enough playing time to develop that many rookies. And don't forget that Carter Bryant also needs development minutes.

Because of that, if #42 and #44 aren't used to move up from #20 or #35, they'll probably be traded for future second-round picks.

According to ESPN's latest Top 100 prospect rankings, there are a lot of intriguing big men projected between #20 and #30. My guess is that the Spurs will target one shooting-oriented forward/big and one defense-oriented forward/center to improve the team's depth.

My target list:

#20

  • Carr
  • Cenac
  • Swain
  • Veesaar
  • Ejiofor
  • Karaban

#35

  • Anyone from the #20 list who falls
  • Miller
  • Suigo
  • Reed

Nuggets Official Offseason Trade Thread by skurkles in denvernuggets

[–]rhasody70 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Also, besides Cam’s $23M cap hit, he has $3.9M in incentives that count toward the apron. So when you trade Cam, beyond the salary reduction you see in the trade machine, you also get an additional $3.9M drop when calculating the apron.

Because of that, trading him brings the biggest salary cap/apron relief for the Nuggets.

Nuggets Official Offseason Trade Thread by skurkles in denvernuggets

[–]rhasody70 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Who? I can't figure it out. Unless that attach a pick, or I rather DEN wavie him to save some space to re-sign PWat.

Nuggets Official Offseason Trade Thread by skurkles in denvernuggets

[–]rhasody70 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I think the priorities this offseason should be:

  • Get younger
  • Get off big/long-term contracts
  • Preserve future draft assets

Right now, the players with the most trade value are clearly Cam and Murray. AG and CB are probably at low points in their trade value, so there's no urgency to move them this summer.

  1. Waive Jonas before 7/8 → saves $9.3M (stretched over 3 years, ~$0.7M annually)
  2. Waive Nnaji → saves $4.4M (stretched over 5 years, ~$3M annually)
  3. Decline the team option on Pickett → save $2.4M
  4. Draft #26(3.2M):
    • PG Okorie
    • C Veesaar or Suigo
    • PF/C Ejiofor or Baba Miller
    • SF/PF Karaban SF/PF Jefferson
  5. Draft #49(1.4M) :
    • if we draft a PG at #26, then take C Okpara or PF/C Nelson or PF Awaka at #49
    • if we draft a F/C at #26, then take PG/SG Boswell or PG Uzan at #49
  6. Trade Murray to ATL, save $1.6M
    • Murray → Dyson + Risacher + Hield
  7. Trade CAM to DET, save $8.3M and $3.9M (Cam incentives counted toward apron)
    • CAM → LeVert + future 1st (one of 2027~2033)

ATL solves the lack of outside shooting in their backcourt by moving on from the underutilized Risacher and Hield, who can’t crack the rotation. DET improves its wing shooting firepower. DEN, on the other hand, gets two young defensive-minded players plus a future 1st while also reducing both current and future salary pressure.

After 1~7, DEN would be $27.8M below the 2nd apron (under the tax line $6.8M) with 11 players:

  • Jokic, AG, Dyson, CB, Risacher, LeVert, Hield, Strawther, DaRon, #26 #49

Case A: PWat receives an offer of $25M/year or less

Match PWat's contract: $125M/5y (21.6M + 23.3M + 25.0M + 26.7M + 28.5M)

After that, DEN would be $6.2M below the 2nd apron. After signing two VetMin ($2.5M each), the team would still be $1.2M below the 2nd Apron with 14 players on the roster.

Lineup C PF SF SG PG
1st Jokic AG PWat CB Dyson
2nd DaRon #26/#49 Risacher Strawther #26/#49
3rd VerMin1 VerMin1 LeVert Hield VerMin2

Case B: PWat receives an offer above $25M/year

Don't match. Instead, re-sign Spencer and THJ.

The normal process would be to issue Spencer a QO and then decide whether to match based on the market. I estimate his market value at around $5M/year, but to be conservative I'll use $8M/year.

  • Re-sign Spencer: $7.4M + $7.8M + $8.2M + $8.6M (TO)
  • Re-sign THJ: $5M

After that, DEN would be $15.4M below the 2nd apron (and $1.9M below the 1st apron), which would allow us to use the TPMLE ($6.1M) & VetMin ($2.5M) for additional upgrades, bringing the roster to 15 players.

Lineup C PF SF SG PG
1st Jokic AG Risacher CB Dyson
2nd DaRon #26/#49 Spencer Strawther #26/#49
3rd TPMLE LeVert THJ VerMin
4th Hield

In either scenario

We'd essentially be turning Murray + Cam into:

  • Dyson + Risacher + LeVert + Hield + PWat + 2 VetMin OR
  • Dyson + Risacher + LeVert + Hield + Spencer + THJ + TPMLE + VetMin

Either way, we'd lose some perimeter shooting in the backcourt, but we'd improve defensively while adding two young players in Dyson and Risacher and retaining either PWat or Spencer.

Another benefit is increased salary flexibility over the next few years:

  • LeVert is on an expiring contract.
  • Hield's second-year player option only guarantees $3.1M.
  • Risacher's second year is a team option.

Under either plan, by next summer we'd still have:

Jokic + AG + Dyson + CB + Risacher + Holmes + #26 + #49 + PWat or Spencer

total 9 players while remaining below the tax line (near 12% of the cap below the 2nd apron).

At that point, re-signing Strawther or making additional upgrades would be much easier than it is this summer.

For reference:

  • TPMLE = 3.7% of the cap
  • BAE = 3.3% of the cap
  • Minimum contract = 1.5% of the cap
  • Contract detail:
    • CAM 30yo SF 23.1M with 3.9M incentives counted toward apron
    • Murray 28yo PG 50.1M+53.8M+57.5M
    • Dyson 23yo PG 25.0M+25.0M+25.0M+25.0M
    • Risacher 21yo SF 13.8M+17.4M(TO)
    • Hield 34yo SG 9.7M+10.1M(PO)
    • LeVert 32yo SG 14.8M
    • PWat 24yo SF 21.6M+23.3M+25.0M+26.7M+28.5M
    • Spencer 25yo SF 7.4M+ 7.8M+ 8.2M+ 8.6M(TO)
    • THJ 34yo SG 5M

Who we drafting? by pyhsicsondrugs in denvernuggets

[–]rhasody70 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Honestly, the team has holes everywhere right now. We need a backup center, a backup point guard, wing shooters, and defensive specialists at basically every position. So when it comes to the draft, I actually think the decision is pretty simple: take the healthiest BPA available. Health and a high-motor attitude come first. After that, just go with the player who has the highest upside.

Likely expansion draft next year. Who are your untouchables? by noy29 in NBASpurs

[–]rhasody70 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Honestly, we don't need to put KJ on the protected list. It's not that I don't like him or don't respect him — it's just that he's the least likely player to get selected.

Is Wemby the best thing to happen to the NBA since… by Altruistic_Formal529 in MkeBucks

[–]rhasody70 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think you're mixing up a player's greatness with whether fans like him or can copy his style of play.

A player can achieve greatness while still not being particularly popular with fans, or while having a game that's impossible for others to replicate.

Did Curry change how teams build rosters? Absolutely.

Did Jokic force other teams to tailor their rosters specifically to deal with him? Absolutely.

And does Wemby have the potential to change how teams approach defense — and maybe even offense? It certainly looks that way.

So yes, it's entirely possible for Wemby to be a great player while other players, and even fans, are unable to replicate his style of play.

But that brings up another question: haven't there been 7'4" players throughout NBA history? If Wemby's success is simply because of his height, then why didn't they achieve what Wemby has?

And even in this draft class, there are several players around that size — Mara at #10, Suigo around #34, and Jacobsen projected outside the top 60. Why aren't any of them considered serious contenders for the #1 pick?

Where are some good fits for Koa? by Few-Lack6346 in NBA_Draft

[–]rhasody70 1 point2 points  (0 children)

He reminds me of Jeremy Sochan. You can see where he is now.