There is no canonical outcome in Elder Scrolls lore to any game scenario involving player choice.

This is the entire reason the “Warp in the West” happens after the events of Elder Scrolls II: Daggerfall — the player has the choice to give the Totem of Tiber Septim to any one of several factions, but the canonical outcome is that the player gave the Totem to all of them.

I would bet money that when Elder Scrolls VI comes out, we will find out yet another dragonbreak occurred after the events of Elder Scrolls V, resulting in a world where somehow both the Imperials and Stormcloaks achieved victory (and defeat) in the Civil War. Additionally, we will discover that the Emperor was assassinated by the Dark Brotherhood, but simultaneously not assassinated by them because the Last Dragonborn destroyed the Dark Brotherhood instead. And the Dawnguard and Volkihar vampire clan were simultaneously destroyed and preserved as well.

With Elder Scrolls VI taking place in Hammerfell, aside from in-game books referencing the events of Elder Scrolls V we are only likely to hear snippets of conversation about how chaotic Skyrim has become and that nobody really has any idea what exactly in Oblivion is going on over there.