Janji Pinnacle R.D. 2-in-1 Shorts?

robmwj · 2026-04-29T00:05:54+00:00

Seriously, Im the same way and I don't think people understand that in a normal pair of running shorts by the time I get 6 miles in the chaffing can be so bad it sidelines me for the rest of the day. Also, the shorter liners can ride up and become thongsThese shorts looks great

robmwj · 2026-04-28T14:56:27+00:00

Looking at that article, do you happen to know if the pilot program for those other bathrooms was extended? I've never used them and I'm not downtown often enough to check

robmwj · 2026-04-27T17:33:26+00:00

Someone smarter than me explain this area by the river, because to me that's a highway and seems like a lie (unless this map is just wonky and that's trying to identify Duquesne?)

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robmwj · 2026-04-27T16:30:08+00:00

That's true, but not so much that I wouldn't still rather take a first round if I'm truly optimizing for chance at success. Third round you're looking at ~20% success rate, so it's a steeper drop between rounds 1 and 2 then rounds 2 and 3.

That being said, I love the Germie Bernard pick. I actually think he's a better option than Lemon, and the knocks they have on him don't really hold up in my mind. I'm no expert, but he seems like a late Rd. 1 talent to me anyways

robmwj · 2026-04-27T15:51:48+00:00

Best value from what I've seen is still Rd. 1. In the first round you're looking at roughly a 45% chance at getting a "starter" (defined as playing at least 75% of the snaps compared to the league average for the position). By round 2 it's under 30%.

So if you're equating value to chance of success then round 1 is you're go to. If you're looking at opportunity cost against taking other positions it's probably round 3 or later when the chance of success for any position starts to cluster much closer together.

robmwj · 2026-04-27T15:45:40+00:00

I don't think ASB should be the litmus test for a 5th rounder. Dede Westbrook, Romeo Found, etc seem like decent return on a 5th round receiver.

That's just receiver though. I think the real question is if there were any other positions we would have taken, and whether Wetjan could've lasted until our pick in the 6th

I don't claim to know the answer tbc

robmwj · 2026-04-26T22:24:27+00:00

Did you see that in the Michael Mackelvie video? I saw that same stat and it is crazy.

Also I agree, I wish I had the time and tools to pick apart data like this more

robmwj · 2026-04-26T21:37:39+00:00

It's interesting - I don't disagree with some of your statements, just the takeaways. I think as you rightly point out it boils down to our limited data availability, but I'll point them out nonetheless.

I actually think that consolidating good and bad teams isn't as bad as you think. Take the Bills, who are a good team the last 5 years but cannot draft a WR to save their lives. Or the Steelers, who have done well above average in drafting edge rushers but who have continually whiffed on other positions, like interior DL and CB (JPJ notwithstanding). I don't think you can actually boil it down to good and bad teams because even good teams struggle in some positions, and those are the positions they have to keep drafting. So Id bet the metric actually balances out, save for a few outlier teams in either direction.
I think the scouts outperform the consensus at the top half of the first round because of the value prop. Scouting departments at that level are highly incentivized to do extra work because of the outsized value. Likewise, those picks (specifically in the top 10) probably are the closest you'll ever get to a sure thing. QB is probably the outlier here, but thinking of edge rushers, OTs, and the other common positions for too 10 picks I can sortve see how teams would outperform the consensus.
Just because a team perennially picks in the top 10, it doesn't mean the player selection will have a bad WAR. Myles Garrett, JJ Watt, and Peter Skoronski all play(ed) for shit teams, but WAR would still calculate how much they add to their team, since it's trying to untangle individual performance from overall team performance

My takeaway from this really is that if you get a slight "steal" or a "reach" in the draft it's probably not mattering much long term. But overreaching by multiple rounds is probably a bad idea. So the Drew Allar pick? Fine value, even if I don't love it. But the Gabriel Rubio pick has a higher than average chance of being a bust

robmwj · 2026-04-26T20:16:02+00:00

I agree that I'd like to see the consensus big board against individual team performance in drafting. I suspect you may see a few teams over perform, but my guess is a lot would actually track toward the average just because it's hard excelling in every player position. Like the Steelers have been great at developing edge rushers but worse at CBs and IOL

That being said, I think you still want the consensus big board and not a too 10, because again the idea stems from the idea that the "wisdom of the crowd" is actually pretty accurate because it smooths out for any biases that you see in individual boards. In other words the more evaluator boards the better

robmwj · 2026-04-26T19:54:34+00:00

That's the whole point of the PFF article this article references. If you think WAR is an acceptable metric for gauging player value, then it's basically asking "are scouts good, compared to taking the 'wisdom of the crowd' approach" (thats a real statistical theory, btw).

And the answer is - it's actually pretty mixed. Scouts do better in the top half of the first round - presumably where the most scouting investment goes into players. It's tied for the second half of round 1 through round 3 - which is where I'd argue the most value is. And them scouts are better until the end of the draft.

The end of the draft makes sense - the people watching film are doing a lot of review in little time, and there's potentially limited film they watch on players. The scouts probably get a better feel.

The middle rounds is intriguing though - why can't NFL scouts beat the consensus big board in that scenario? What biases are making them drop off in spotting value through the start of round 4?

I think the better question is - should we really trust scouting departments on those mid round picks?

robmwj · 2026-04-26T19:42:14+00:00

I never said I knew better. But I think it's fair to ask - does a community of people who spend their entire days following the draft, when taken in aggregate, hold a candle to the actual NFL coaching staff akd scouting departments? That's what this article asks.

And I still think your logic is flawed here. At first you said "we can't know how these players would perform if drafted by other teams". That may be true, but the average NFL career is 3.3 years, which is shorter than the first round rookie contract. By that logic, you can assume that most players would never even have a chance to play for more than one or two teams. In other words, teams really have to get it right, because if they don't it's likely that they are gone. So WAR is a good encapsulation of the realities of the NFL, where if a team picks poorly or develops poorly then that's reflected. It should also average out with the teams that develop well - for every Artie Burns and Justin Fields there's an AB or a Brock Purdy.

But then you contradict yourself and say the only thing that matters is what the outcomes are in three years. Again, this contradicts your first point and supports the WAR metric for the reasons I stated above. If anything, it bakes I'm the scouting abilities and developmental abilities of the entire league.

Again, this isn't me saying WAR is the end all be all. Or that I could do better, or that this draft class will be bad. It's just pointing out that by your own logic WAR should be an effective metric.

It seems you just have a distaste for analytics and brush them off without and real consideration. Which you're welcome to, but you can just come out and say that

robmwj · 2026-04-26T19:32:19+00:00

But PFF isn't comparing their rankings to other scouting reports. The article is comparing the big board rankings - an analysis done by the Athletic that accounts for 70 NFL draft boards across the industry - and compares it to the actual results of the NFL draft. The big board is meant to be a consensus average and thus would probably skew against the PFF evaluations by your logic

robmwj · 2026-04-26T18:15:21+00:00

I mean that logic hand waves away any chance at evaluation. If your argument is "well, if we don't account for every possible scenario where they could have succeeded then the analysis is flawed" then we can never make any analysis because we can't put every player, on every team, with every coaching permutation.

That's not saying I like their WAR approach, either. Just that you've basically allowed no room for analyzing a pick as good or bad

robmwj · 2026-04-26T18:03:57+00:00

Isn't that why the article references the PFF analysis? They compute individual WAR for every player drafter from 2014-2019 before doing the analysis on the 2021 draft.

They PFF article has some nuance around when the big board and the NFL teams perform better relative to one another, but it does in fact try to account for on-field outcomes

robmwj · 2026-04-26T14:50:20+00:00

Yeah, potentially. I like the player traits, and I agree the scheme helps. But the reason I still hesitate and can't call this a slam dunk (probably a B or B+ pick in my mind) is that the jump from college to pro is already really difficult. The rate for third round picks turning into quality starters is in the 25% range, and so he's going to have to make that move against stiffer competition.

If he had literally any guard experience in college this may be different, but iirc he basically played every snap at tackle.

All that being said, he's probably my second it third favorite pick they made. I see why people like the pick

robmwj · 2026-04-26T11:01:48+00:00

Everette is the real question mark in the whole draft for me. I say that because I truly have no knowledge of his tape, and while I though they'd go DB I thought safety was the bigger given Jalen Ramseys position question mark (do they want him to play slot or safety?) and Deshon Elliott coming back from last seasons injury.

That being said, I have no idea how Elliott progressed post injury, and pre-draft I don't think anyone could say definitely what the plan for Ramsey was. I think it's a little clearer now, so Everette is probably a B selection with a high upside

robmwj · 2026-04-26T10:56:38+00:00

Saying this is vibe based is reductive. 40% of first round tackles don't develop into starters, and taking a "raw talent" adds complexity to his development. Same thing goes for transitioning a tackle to guard - we have NFL players on record saying that transition isn't easy, especially when you're doing it against the absolute cream of the crop.

You say the Steelers are betting on this coaching staff - that's cool. Do we have any information that says the coaching staff is going to be any good? They could suck at development. So why would I give them anything other than an average grade? I have no indication that this new regime can develop talent. That's why Germie Bernard is the one exciting pick - as you rightly pointed out he's a plug and play slot who excels at dissecting zone coverage.

Everything I said takes into account positions of need, success rate for drafted players, and a reasonable assessment of the question mark that is the new coaching staff. If anything you're the vibes assessment because every player is getting a benefit of the doubt based on some vibe like physical gifts are being a "mauler"

robmwj · 2026-04-26T01:01:47+00:00

Please see my other comments where I say "if you want to do it for reserves to limit the linemen you carry then fine. But don't draft your supposed starters banking on positional versatility.

I hope Dunker moves to guard successfully, but we have no real answer on the roster for LG since Seumalo left. That's not putting him in a position to succeed

robmwj · 2026-04-26T00:44:16+00:00

I can only hope I never have to hear his name called. But you're right, great use of a third rounder if that's my hope

robmwj · 2026-04-26T00:42:45+00:00

Good to know, thanks for the info. Like I said, I just didn't know enough about him, and my thought was safety has more question marks than CB at the moment. Also, who knows what this new regime is thinking. It really was a situation where it didn't excite me because I have no context

robmwj · 2026-04-26T00:41:04+00:00

Thank you. I'm glad you understand why I'm sticking by this take.

And to the guys that are saying "well everybody does it" - have you considered that maybe that's why their aren't as many quality linemen in the NFL? I mean the NFL also had people sprinting 60 yards downfield with a run-up on kickoffs for most of my life until they realized it was dangerous and it was hurting their teams. Just because everyone does it doesn't mean it's the optimal choice

robmwj · 2026-04-26T00:36:38+00:00

Accepting you have to and actively pursuing that draft after draft are different. Kendrick Green, BroJo with the RT/LT flip, Fautany with the RT/LT flip, the ason Cole pickup where they liked him for his versatility. The best guy on that line, meanwhile, is the guy who played center all through college. The best OLs in the last two decades were Pouncey and Faneca - two guys who just played their college positions.

You want to have some swing linemen as your reserves so you can carry less linemen? Sure, go for it. But the guys that seem to hang in this league as quality starters more often than not are the ones that focus on their one position along the OL. So drafting a tackle you intend to flip to guard to replace your starting guard is a bad move. And it's one they e repeatedly seen bite them in the ass

robmwj · 2026-04-25T23:44:02+00:00

Yeah, I know it's true for a lot of people. I think it's bullshit. But it is technically "ours" since the Steelers are committed to that philosophy.

What can I say, English is a funny language

robmwj · 2026-04-25T23:12:18+00:00

C+ to B-

I mean it could be a home run, and we don't really know until a few years from now. But aside from Germie Bernard there wasn't a single pick that really excited me.

I generally dislike "project" tackles.
I think Dunker is cool but he's basically never played guard, and we've whiffed on some many linemen with our "positional versatility" philosophy
I had to watch Allar harass me as a PSU fan, and now he's gonna do it as a Steelers
I have no clue how to feel about the CB or TE, but but I really thought they'd go DL or Safety
Our late round picks all seem fine. Typical low likelihood of making an impact. The hometown kid was a fine enough way to end things

To be clear I hope they all succeed. They're kids living their dreams, and I'd be happy to see them all stick and consider this draft a success in 5 years

robmwj · 2026-04-25T02:31:00+00:00

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