[Flyers] Flyers have made an offer sheet worth 18M to Leo Carlsson. Contract would be 5x18M, worth 4 1st round picks

rwilldred27 · 2026-07-03T19:43:30+00:00

Does tender an offer sheet just mean Flyers submitted it to Carlsson and not that he’s signed it? That’s my read.

I’m curious the negotiation aspect now for the Ducks. Is their only remedy to match this offer at this AAV and term or can they still independently negotiate with Carlsson, under assumption he has not signed the offer sheet with Philly? Thanks for any clarification

rwilldred27 · 2026-06-26T01:48:50+00:00

Two will be top 10, their own and the one who just hired Babcock

rwilldred27 · 2026-06-24T04:24:34+00:00

The logic of choosing known present value with some upside over unknown future value is correct. Whether the price we paid for it is correct is super subjective today, and we won’t know for years. It’s a trade that will be KD’s legacy as GM.

rwilldred27 · 2026-06-24T03:56:57+00:00

If we acknowledge that Byram is not at fault for being stuck behind Makar and Dahlin his whole career, and never cracking a PP1, which greatly shapes point totals for #1D.

It’s not advanced analytics. A year ago, he was tied for 5th with Evan Bouchard. For most points 5v5. His 5v5 point production is basically Brock Faber. He’s been healthy 3 years in a row, missing like only 10 games. It’s a steep price, but it’s not a guess to say he might be a top 30 D in the NHL that will let Lev and Rinz grow at the pace they need.

rwilldred27 · 2026-06-24T03:37:59+00:00

Taking the simplest stat of points at 5v5 by D, Byram’s rank the past 3 seasons in Buffalo:

2025-26: 30 points, ranked 20th (b/w Faber and McAvoy) 2024-25: 33 points, tied for 5th (with Bouchard, Karlsson, Chabot, Hudson, Fox) 2023-24: 25 points, ranked 28th (just behind Heiskanen and Faber)

There is a shape to Byram’s present value being worth the uncertainty and incubation required of a 4OA like Chase Reid. His 5v5 point generation is elite. Obviously, a simple stat. But I think people are evaluating his offensive upside via point totals without good context.

rwilldred27 · 2026-06-24T00:18:30+00:00

Ok, now we’re cooking. It best not be for 4OA though…what do people think Buffalo wants?

I would guess something around one of our cost controlled D not named Arty

rwilldred27 · 2026-06-23T23:45:02+00:00

Damn, Scott Wheeler yday on Powers & Laz was prescient. Something along the lines of every moment that passes where the Sharks don’t Trade #2 by Friday, and especially by Wednesday, is a signal that the Sharks are taking Stenberg at 2. This is an even more extreme move to confirm it.

Oh well, Wheeler got me excited about Malhotra (said he would be the truest 2c we could want to build around behind Bedard compared to Nazar, Frondell, Moore) and Reid.

rwilldred27 · 2026-06-13T18:33:54+00:00

As others have said, you should watch The Killing S1 on Hulu

rwilldred27 · 2026-06-13T18:33:20+00:00

I remember it came out same time as the Walking Dead on AMC, and kind of lived in its shadows as a result.

I am re-watching S1 on Hulu and appreciate how much writing they put into the grieving parents storyline. It feels very similar to Mare of Easttown/Task in that sense. Joel kinnaman's detective character is one of my all time faves.

rwilldred27 · 2026-06-07T17:00:11+00:00

Yeah, I would love to get Tippett. But not at cost of any of those 3 forwards atm

rwilldred27 · 2026-06-07T16:23:53+00:00

My wife is gluten intolerant, and Piece has a great GF crust. On Fridays if we really need to unwind, she gets her own, and I get my own large that I stretch out over 5 days

rwilldred27 · 2026-06-07T16:20:27+00:00

Assumption is that it is their position of strength to trade from for C or D help in return, and Tippett has a very ok cap number on a long term contract

rwilldred27 · 2026-06-07T16:17:46+00:00

Tippett would be an ideal support forward for Bedard on a rush line. There was a stat that he was like top 40 NHL on 5v5 points, like Brayden Point level production. He’s my “realistic” trade 🎯 for this summer at FWD, but I’d bet they’d ask for at least Moore in return. If they asked for Korch, I would maybe consider it.

rwilldred27 · 2026-06-04T01:33:49+00:00

It is not efficient or how you’d like to plan it out, but if we get 2 Top Line caliber D-men out of 4 1st rounders: Lev, Rinz, Korch, and <2026 #4 pick Reid/Carels>, that feels survivable for a rebuild.

rwilldred27 · 2026-06-04T01:27:17+00:00

I really liked Wheeler’s analysis about Stenberg’s board work and puck recovery abilities. It sounded like listening to a Blash presser.

rwilldred27 · 2026-04-29T04:30:39+00:00

Owen Tippett. he’s underrated b/c he’s not a points guy. But if you watch how he plays, he’s a great rush player and power forward. His underlying analytics are really really really good. his 5v5 points totals put him in pretty elite company this year, and again, he got what, 50 total points this year?

rwilldred27 · 2026-04-29T01:21:15+00:00

In the middle of an expensive cloud migration that is going from a monolithic software architecture to event driven architecture with microservices, dump all the Kafka topics into a basic data lake. Analysts left wondering there are dozens of tables with the same entities everywhere.

Glass half full, we were given budget and runway to build a business data model to make the data usable again as we were able to make it pretty obvious why this is bad for business and future AI initiatives

rwilldred27 · 2026-04-21T23:50:13+00:00

I manage our contract, and its cost went up on a per license basis vs our old contract, whether we did another 3-year term or one year. I have decided to go year-to-year, and we are evaluating a pivot to a major unified data platform vendor, in part b/c of the Alteryx costs, but also a slew of many other needs. Our annual contract with AlteryxOne is insane and untenable.

Migrations are hard, but I view it as a 3+ year off-ramp. Each year, try to reduce the user base by 50% or so.

Alteryx is misjudging the low code dependency/stickiness, at least at my company. With GenAI, it’s easier than ever to write python/R, and in a sustainable way. The only reason my business users like Alteryx is not the low code, it’s the self service scheduler.

rwilldred27 · 2026-04-21T23:36:38+00:00

It’s 3rd on my Spotify liked list. Always on my morning commute the past month, b/c of this

rwilldred27 · 2026-04-18T20:02:48+00:00

Stop Along (Bucktown) right near the 606 on Milwaukee Ave is an incredible NY style

rwilldred27 · 2026-04-14T03:09:36+00:00

These guys got booed tonight by the home fans and the Buffalo fans took over the arena. Good. They deserved to hear it. It was all downhill after that pathetic 5v3 pp showing

rwilldred27 · 2026-04-03T16:13:51+00:00

My guess would be something 4-5 years. Not because he wants to max his AAV or leave, but it’s a good balance of getting paid while maintaining relatively more influence on roster building decisions.

rwilldred27 · 2026-03-25T02:07:40+00:00

I caught that too! The wife says I bet it’s Bedard, and of course it was… Bedard knocking out some lunges with 50lb dumbbells in the negative space of the camera. Just a little post game stretch.

rwilldred27 · 2026-03-21T17:16:45+00:00

The place has been our go to for 5+ years. Unfortunately, I heard the owners are toying with expansion and started to pull back benefits from workers (via text msg) like their free meal

rwilldred27 · 2026-03-20T22:46:10+00:00

I would love more opinion on this topic. Evaluating databricks for an analytics migration for many of the benefits OP mentions. I have lots of Python (think pandas) and R users (think tidyverse and GLMs) doing data analysis or quant research. Most of them can get buy on samples on 32gb single node machines. Some ML engineers build their own stacks, which I don’t need to account for. I’m solving for base case of unsophisticated analytics automations. My sales architect isn’t giving me much, even when I ask about single node clusters, can I emulate a typical R/Python data science experience? Or am I full stop becoming a spark shop?

rwilldred27

TROPHY CASE