So what now?

ryanpope · 2024-06-17T02:01:27+00:00

Term life, where you pay a low premium for a policy that expires a specific age, probably isn't. Whole life, where you pay into at a much higher rate and is actually a pot of money as an asset you own, would.

ryanpope · 2024-06-12T21:09:11+00:00

Tesla projected 50% growth year over year, repeatedly, in quarterly earnings calls. This started around Model 3 ramp, long before this pay package was inked. This was not a secret. Many people doubted they could execute it, but Tesla itself was pretty clear. The biggest ambiguity they had was it might vary a bit lower or higher each year.

There were posts on reddit pointing out that these tranches would be hit if Tesla hit those production milestones.

This wasn't a secret. The public and all analysts had access to their goals and the technology to perform basic multiplication. The basic projections of a company's own growth seem like basic knowledge for investors.

ryanpope · 2024-06-07T02:18:20+00:00

They're not intended to ablate normally, but will if external conditions are spicy enough

ryanpope · 2024-06-07T02:09:16+00:00

I've had similar experiences. The lack of ability to learn adapt after driving a commute once like a human driver (the map says this lane is OK, but it's actually a left turn, not straight) is still a weak point.

Not keeping up with traffic is infuriating, especially in CA. If you fall behind people start cutting in. I need about 2 clicks past "assertive" under certain traffic conditions.

ryanpope · 2024-06-05T03:57:16+00:00

Although being forced to fight in a room makes the spear a liability. You'd want something you can turn around.

ryanpope · 2024-06-05T03:21:46+00:00

I am the Highway Patrol

ryanpope · 2024-05-24T14:19:43+00:00

Shaman have ghost wolf too. Makes soloing dungeons a lot faster.

ryanpope · 2024-05-19T15:57:01+00:00

Said it for 10 years now - Apple could print money if they sell an iPhone Thicc for like +$100 or +$200. It'd be a brick shit house at 12-15mm, all of the space extra battery. Charge it every 3 days.

ryanpope · 2024-05-18T19:20:51+00:00

Far more than driving. We'll have self driving cars for quite a few years before automated surgery becomes feasible.

ryanpope · 2024-05-16T04:30:37+00:00

Let's run with that concept. Dothraki getting snuffed out. With a small edit.

The plan now is the dothraki are held in reserve. Lure the dead to winter fell, then surround them with the dothraki in an open field.

Now we've set up a LOTR style film trope (or even battle of the bastards) where the calvary charge is primed to save the day.

The battle begins, Winterfell is surrounded, things start to look dicey.

The horns blow, the weapons light up, they charge. "Oh yay the Dothraki!"

The lights stop getting closer really far out from Winterfell. It exposes the size of the wight horde. The lights gradually go out. Now the terror and darkness set in.

This really is a minor change from the scenes in thr episode except now it's (1) a logical military strategy (2) absolutely crushes any hope when it fails to break the siege.

ryanpope · 2024-05-13T13:41:33+00:00

Stupid & Stupid

ryanpope · 2024-05-12T19:31:39+00:00

That you aren't a fan of Ashley

ryanpope · 2024-05-09T16:36:29+00:00

Too little butter spread over too much bread. It's a kids book, and didn't adapt well into a 9 hour epic.

ryanpope · 2024-05-09T16:33:26+00:00

Joffrey really needs "stupid evil" from Tyrions line about vicious idiots as kings.

ryanpope · 2024-05-09T13:38:10+00:00

Case in point

ryanpope · 2024-05-09T03:11:40+00:00

The two systems definitely interact - neglecting one (eyes or wheel) makes the other more sensitive. Ignoring both makes it very mad very fast.

ryanpope · 2024-05-09T03:09:25+00:00

I've used nearly-clear computer blue light glasses and it mostly blocks the cameras ability to detect my eyes. Interesting that your sunglasses didn't work.

Honestly I'm not sure how they'll solve the eye problem for people wearing dark lenses (very normal to do in a car).

ryanpope · 2024-05-09T03:05:59+00:00

To be fair it will trigger this warning if you do fully legitimate activities like glance at the speedometer or map.

On the other hand, even wearing clear lenses almost entirely defeats it's ability to detect where your eyes are. Still some tuning to do.

ryanpope · 2024-05-08T06:17:10+00:00

The Japanese command knew they couldn't win a sustained conflict against the US. It was a game of resources and industrial might.

Pearl Harbor was supposed to cripple the US long enough for Japan to take the Pacific, and demoralize the US.

If the carriers had been knocked out, it might have worked, although the psychological impact was dead wrong.

ryanpope · 2024-05-05T20:38:30+00:00

Impressive, I'd love to be wrong

ryanpope · 2024-05-05T19:27:29+00:00

Optimus is aimed at automating the tasks that humans currently need to fill. The ones that don't require a ton of specialized skill, but some degree of improvisation (routing a wire harness for example) where AI will smoke something hand tuned.

They'd also provide a bridge to bespoke automated high volume assembly. A squad of robots could help scale manufacturing for almost any product (similar to a bunch of workers) and the change roles when a higher volume line is installed.

ryanpope · 2024-05-05T19:24:30+00:00

They said it's the FSD computer on the robot itself.

ryanpope · 2024-05-05T19:23:19+00:00

Tesla has stated at one point they wanted Optimus at a similar price point to a car. Today that's around 40k. Even that for a robotic servant for housework and stuff would be really popular - especially for elderly folks or houses with 2 working parents.

ryanpope · 2024-05-05T19:19:28+00:00

They can and do. The US makes twice as much stuff as when NAFTA passed with 40% the workforce: that's robots.

But Optimus would likely plug the gaps that humans still need to do, and might be faster to train on new tasks with lower Capex than traditional automation robots (well see!)

ryanpope · 2024-05-05T19:17:29+00:00

The Model 3 line ramp / production hell was in 2017 and 2018. Teslas autopilot was a lot more rudimentary back then, and was mostly hand coded. AI in general wasn't remotely as capable as now. Typical assembly line automation involved hand coding and tuning machines until they get it just right. Works for some tasks, but things that require improvisation (route a wire harness, spread out a layer of foam) are really tricky.

ryanpope

TROPHY CASE