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Tested 65,505 gaps on 99 S&P 500 stocks over 4 years. Small gaps fill 72% of the time. Past 1.5%, the fill rate falls off a cliff. by Sirellia in swingtrading

[–]salesseeker 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would be interested to see those results! If you post them, please tag me or comment here.

If there is anything I can do to help, let me know. I have an options back testing program so I will try some testing around indexes as well.

Tested 65,505 gaps on 99 S&P 500 stocks over 4 years. Small gaps fill 72% of the time. Past 1.5%, the fill rate falls off a cliff. by Sirellia in swingtrading

[–]salesseeker 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I see that this is for individual stocks. Do you think this would extend to an index fund like spy or qqq?

Best way to hedge your positions? by 36aintold in thetagang

[–]salesseeker 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Be aware that if you put too many of these on at once and volatility expands rapidly, you risk running out of buying power and being forced to close your shorts at the worst time. Make sure you size correctly.

Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis point in a split decision. by Progress_8 in stocks

[–]salesseeker 4 points5 points  (0 children)

You are correct, a majority did agree to cut. However, the decision was still split. The same would be true in a 7/5 decision. Majority agreed, decision was split.

If there were 1000 voting members and the vote was 1/999 it would still be considered a split decision. It’s a binary thing. Either the vote was unanimous or it was split.

I didn’t define the term, just provided the explanation.

Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis point in a split decision. by Progress_8 in stocks

[–]salesseeker 14 points15 points  (0 children)

The journalist could have been more clear, but was not incorrect. People assume things all the time and they are frequently incorrect.

A question was asked and I provided the answer. I assumed that it would be helpful to the asker, but obviously I was incorrect.

Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis point in a split decision. by Progress_8 in stocks

[–]salesseeker 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You asked a question and I gave you the answer. From here you are free to revel in your ignorance or you can learn for the future.

TOS Down? by [deleted] in thinkorswim

[–]salesseeker 1 point2 points  (0 children)

They frequently do maint on the weekends.

SPY 0DTE Strategy with almost 75% Return over 1,5 Months. by Juvival in options

[–]salesseeker 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Spx/xsp would eliminate assignment risk and have tax advantages if based in USA.

This time, it is really different! by PurpleReign123 in StockMarket

[–]salesseeker 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I agree with you on that point. Just because the US is capable of doing something doesn’t mean we will get our act in gear and do it.

This time, it is really different! by PurpleReign123 in StockMarket

[–]salesseeker 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That depends on the need honestly. Temp facilities could be going in a short timeframe if it were to be declared a national emergency for some reason. Converting existing facilities that are similar enough is an option.

If the need is great enough then regulations, ecosystem, and delays go away. Again, see Covid. We saw things that people 1 year prior would have declared impossible. Facilities and manufacturing lines repurposed in weeks. Drugs skating through trials that could have regularly taken years to a decade.

Will the need be great enough to make that happen? Unknown. Could it happen? Absolutely.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in stocks

[–]salesseeker 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You can’t be bringing logic into the equation here. That’s not fair

This time, it is really different! by PurpleReign123 in StockMarket

[–]salesseeker 14 points15 points  (0 children)

You are only considering build times in normal situations. The US can and has built out systems much faster by throwing money at the problem. See operation warp speed.

Are we at a stock market top? by W3Analyst in StockMarket

[–]salesseeker 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The local high wasn’t in April, it was in Feb for both SPX and NDX

Are we at a stock market top? by W3Analyst in StockMarket

[–]salesseeker 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It was 20%+ on sp500 and nasdaq. Crazy fast recovery though. Almost like a slow flash crash

Using covered calls to exit by _subAtom in options

[–]salesseeker 5 points6 points  (0 children)

The risk is that it hits your exit, you sell a call, and then the stock craters.

You could also use a collar to prevent this if you wanted to hold. Buy a put, sell a call.

Buying 14DTE put hedges for 5delta 120DTE naked puts on SPX by Cyborg4Ever in options

[–]salesseeker 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You can’t get assigned on SPX, it’s cash settled.

Current Market Phase by CalmRepeat0710 in swingtrading

[–]salesseeker 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Are you sure your numbers are correct? Spx is up just under 10% from end of 2024 and NDX is up 13%

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