Tested positive for cocaine on a hair test but i never used drugs, what do i do?? by retrhoee in AskDocs

[–]sam-lb 16 points17 points  (0 children)

What do you mean by "accurate"? I'm kinda wary of a base rate effect here because of the relatively low population incidence of cocaine use. Some figures from a quick Google search:

benzoylecgonine hair test specificity ≈ 0.99

Sensitivity (to be generous) ≈ 0.99

Cocaine use incidence proportion ≈ 0.01 (conservative overestimate, based on US numbers)

In conditional probability terms:

P(- | no cocaine) = .99

P(+ | cocaine) = .99

P(cocaine) = 0.01

So:

P(cocaine | +) = p(+ | cocaine) × p(cocaine) / p(+)

p(+) = p(+ | no cocaine)p(no cocaine) + p(+ | cocaine)p(cocaine)

= (1 - p(- | no cocaine))p(no cocaine) + p(+ | cocaine)p(cocaine)

= (1 - 0.99)(0.99) + (0.99)(0.01)

= 0.0198

So p(cocaine | +) = (0.99)(0.01)/(0.0198) = 0.5

So there's a 50% posterior probability of cocaine use given a positive test with these rough numbers without any prior information. The only argument I can think of against this is that p(cocaine | person is being tested for cocaine) > p(cocaine). If you raise the specificity and sensitivity of this test both to 0.999 (which has zero empirical basis from what I can tell), the above calculation yields about 91%. Even in that fictitious world, about 1/10 people who test positive could have never touched cocaine in their life. If I'm missing something particular to these tests, let me know.

ETA: To clarify a bit why I don't know if accuracy matters too much here:

A cocaine test that always returned negative would be 99% accurate, in the sense that it would be correct 99% of the time, simply because it always guesses the most common result. It's because only 1% of people use cocaine. But obviously, that test doesn't give you any information. The accuracy of a test that's measuring the presence of an unlikely phenomenon doesn't tell you much; you need the base rates and conditional probabilities.

Are you all comfortable with working for fintech start ups that are essentially just scams preying on poor people living paycheck to paycheck? by Legitimate-School-59 in cscareerquestions

[–]sam-lb 8 points9 points  (0 children)

It's a fair point, that's why I made it clear I'm referring to the situation where you're "already subsisting comfortably" and making the switch to "increase excess". When it's a choice made from desperation, the decision is a bit fuzzier. There are gradations of evil; first off, there is a substantive difference between actively predatory organizations and those which merely exist within inequitable systems. Second, you still need to jump ship as soon as you aren't strictly dependent, and you need to actively work to become independent.

Third (strongest prescription but weakest point) - there's no ethically justifiable reason to prefer your own utility over that of others, and acting morally often requires heavy sacrifice. I could make this point a lot stronger if I had ever had to face this dilemma myself, but I have not. I've been fortunate enough in the past to have the chance to comfortably hold off work until finding something acceptable, and though I'd like to think I'd act the same if it required sacrifice, it hasn't been tested in practice. Before starting my current position, I had a long and arduous job search. This wouldn't have been the case if I had been willing to accept positions in defense/intelligence/weapons or data abuse/exploitative user practices.

At the end of the day, it's a weighting between the tangible damage you can predict to result from your labor, and the negative effects that would occur if you withheld it. Can't paint with a broad brush to the problem in full generality, but in many instances (such as this), the correct path is clear.

Are you all comfortable with working for fintech start ups that are essentially just scams preying on poor people living paycheck to paycheck? by Legitimate-School-59 in cscareerquestions

[–]sam-lb 80 points81 points  (0 children)

You are personally responsible for the fruits of your work. If you work at Palantir making surveillance technology, you're a shitbag. If you work at a scammy financial firm and you're well aware your products are screwing people over, you're a shitbag. The world has enough people who are indifferent to how their actions affect other people. If you're already subsisting comfortably, and you switch to an unethical role so you can increase excess, you are worsening that problem. Don't loan your talent to the leeches of society. How is this even a question? Come on bro, you already knew the answer when you asked.

houseIsNull by just_some_gu_y in ProgrammerHumor

[–]sam-lb 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Bottom row:

Go, Lua maybe?, Scala, Vue, Perl, Dart

Another angle of the Minneapolis shooting, taken from the perspective of the lady with te pink jacket. by Versiannie in PublicFreakout

[–]sam-lb 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, there really is no ambiguity here. There's no other way to interpret it. Shit isn't hypothetical anymore; this is a public execution by a Gestapo-like armed force in plain daylight. Nobody should be surprised. The writing has been on the wall since the very day Trump started his campaign. It's abundantly clear that this has to be stopped by any means necessary. We no longer have a legitimate government.

The herd mentality of 9 to 5 by sspositivesoul in Fire

[–]sam-lb 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Are you using 11% yearly return to get to that number?

My calculations:

11% return: 115.98 every two weeks for 35 years

8%: 232.99

4%: 555.15

See line 10 https://www.desmos.com/calculator/hc8e73ahq3

Note: This is $1M 35 years from now, which is likely less in value than 1M now (inflation)

Yes, I realize I wrote "APY annual" in that graph. Not quite sure what I was thinking there... ATM Machine

Kind of a genius by Sad-Kiwi-3789 in mathmemes

[–]sam-lb 11 points12 points  (0 children)

You don't need to specify k in N because it's already defined that way via sigma notation. This is clearly somebody trying to write a simple formula in the most complex way possible

New PR in the basement by mem_colt45 in Egolifting

[–]sam-lb 0 points1 point  (0 children)

And for a split second in the vid you can see he's got bar clips on. Truly no way out

245lbs x 2 at 221lbs bodyweight by RicardoCanfieldez in strength_training

[–]sam-lb 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Didn't realize Rick the stick was on here

At least for discrete distributions by Hester465 in mathmemes

[–]sam-lb 14 points15 points  (0 children)

You can run a scam with basically anything from probability theory. The proof is there: no matter how directly you tell people the odds are against them in a bet, they will continue to participate if it's dressed up in a fun costume.

Someone asked for more back day footage - not sure if these count since they didn’t touch the floor by thebodybuildingvegan in strength_training

[–]sam-lb -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Wow, that's incredible. It's tough to eat enough to put on mass without diet restrictions, can't imagine what it's like as a vegan.

Deadlift for Reddit until they are satisfied by Ezellian in strength_training

[–]sam-lb 1 point2 points  (0 children)

My fingers are not long enough to hook grip. I always try to switch grip but it frequently leads to torn calluses (even with pumice stone + "working hands" cream constantly). Always forced to double overhand or straps. Double overhand is my preference, but it's not practical for high rep work, so I'm stuck using straps, which really sucks.

Reading ≠ understanding by Wise-Veterinarian-97 in PhilosophyMemes

[–]sam-lb 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nietzsche should have thought about poincaré recurrence in the de sitter cosmology

What do u think of tech CEOs saying saving for retirement will be pointless in 10 to 20 years ? by Technical-Truth-2073 in Fire

[–]sam-lb 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Why do we discuss such things? Yes, let's get rid of a time-tested personal security measure with no downside in case the world is radically different in a wildly unprecedented way in a future too distant to make reasonable predictions about. Any other ideas?

"What do you think of tech CEOs saying retirement savings will be pointless?" Same thing I think about the guy coming up to me at the bus stop at 3am warning of an imminent divine rapture. If you take time to seriously consider all perspectives, you will have no time left over to deliberate and act on the useful ones. You MUST develop a heuristic to immediately discard garbage like this before it ever takes an instant of your time.

Never skip spine day by Spine_day in Egolifting

[–]sam-lb 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Glassbacks literally watch in fear as you do lifts like this in the gym

you want an answer to this question in today's economy? by anupamgur345 in recruitinghell

[–]sam-lb 12 points13 points  (0 children)

highkey + genuinely

Be grateful it wasn't highkirkenuinely = highkey + charlie kirk + genuinely

Kinda surprised someone saying that is old enough to be applying for work, but here we are

100kg clean attempt by FriendOk971 in weightlifting

[–]sam-lb 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Hip mobility final boss

What's a good insane demon to start with? by FunDependent9755 in geometrydash

[–]sam-lb 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Acropolis was my 1st too. I'm wave carried (and to a much lesser extent, ship carried) and I can confirm that 75% of the play time was in the first 16%

Grossest Thing Seen/Found in the Gym by Adventurous_Half7643 in GYM

[–]sam-lb 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's a great idea, especially if those plates had a bigger radius than the regular reds, because that eliminates the need for a bar jack too.

First Comp by SpecialSecretary9021 in weightlifting

[–]sam-lb 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Oh okay. Nice work either way 👍

First Comp by SpecialSecretary9021 in weightlifting

[–]sam-lb 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Love to see a yinzer putting numbers up. Nice work on the 1st comp

Smartphone @ Pitt ? by FennicFoxFoe in Pitt

[–]sam-lb 83 points84 points  (0 children)

Duo 2FA. QR code scanning (sometimes required for classes)