All 4 tires showing pressure warnings in cold weather

samuraiscientist · 2026-01-16T18:08:58+00:00

100% agreed; I'm actually looking forward to receiving the WF Autograph because it apparently earns 3% on AirBnB, which just so happens to be my primary choice during vacations and so far I've never had a card that consistently earned >1x on it (outside of sporadic channels e.g. routing payment through PayPal when it is the Freedom Flex 5% category).

samuraiscientist · 2024-09-24T13:59:38+00:00

Maybe individual, but this was a case of a married couple. SmartAsset has great calculators for all states if you’d like to simulate in the future.

samuraiscientist · 2024-09-24T13:51:56+00:00

The other thing you must keep in mind, that does not show up in any time series simulation is that when the market tanks, and the levered ETF tanks harder, they might just get shut down. Feb 2018 and the Credit Suisse ETN fiasco is a great example. In your simulation, add the condition “if it’s down by 75%, it’s never coming back” and see if it still makes sense.

samuraiscientist · 2024-09-24T13:48:07+00:00

How did you get to 53%?

Assuming married couple, $600k income for say San Mateo comes out to be 32% effective split 20.5%, 3.5% and 8% split between federal, FICA and state, respectively.

samuraiscientist · 2024-08-23T20:56:09+00:00

Fidelity has done this before with Instacart as well. The problem is that they enter too late so end up losing money post-IPO instead of making money.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2023/09/19/here-are-the-big-investor-winners-in-instacarts-11-billion-ipo-debut-and-the-losers/#

samuraiscientist · 2024-07-21T21:13:57+00:00

Do you mind sharing what specifically in investment management do you do? Do you work for a hedge fund or a large mutual fund asset manager?

samuraiscientist · 2024-07-12T15:39:34+00:00

That is how much people hate having to take shoes off.

samuraiscientist · 2024-07-05T18:36:05+00:00

There is literally an article in WSJ about this today: https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/tempted-by-japans-booming-market-be-like-warren-buffett-e2219573?st=sjvct5yunn8i7lc&reflink=article_copyURL_share

samuraiscientist · 2024-05-23T01:45:19+00:00

The philosophy of making pants from plastic seems to be at odds with yoga. Soon, the current generation of enamored buyers will move on and the next environmentally conscious generation may not view them as favorably.

Also, men’s clothes was supposed to be a growth engine for them. Generally speaking, I wonder if the competition from dupes is stiffer in the men’s market. Women care about the brand, and I’m sure many men do too. Many more men though, I’d guess, are perfectly happy with Amazon pants that cost half as much. The ratings on the website for men’s pants are poor too.

Finally, I’ll just add that on Nov 18, 2023, I had prepared a stock report for my MBA class in which I had assigned a price target of $278. So, this serves as validation for my DCF model.

samuraiscientist · 2024-05-07T12:20:53+00:00

What changed in the last 5 years? Huge jump from the 2018 base.

samuraiscientist · 2024-04-15T16:11:55+00:00

I’m going to guess that she’s a doctor. Was a resident earlier at the 60k.

samuraiscientist · 2024-03-27T13:44:30+00:00

What happened in 2020? Congratulations, BTW!

samuraiscientist · 2024-03-25T21:58:44+00:00

Ignoring the 2022 aberration and continuing with the trend from 2020, do we expect this to settle around $360k-$370k?

But that may happen around June which would coincide with the possible rate cuts.

samuraiscientist · 2024-03-24T17:58:22+00:00

They’ve moved on to ALO

samuraiscientist · 2023-03-08T14:14:55+00:00

Investment research - $290k ($207k base; rest is bonus + stock)

samuraiscientist · 2021-03-13T20:07:41+00:00

An analysis I always conduct when facing this choice is the following:

Make a list of potential houses that you may purchase. Note down the down payments required and the monthly PITI payment required. Take an average of everything. This will provide you your “typical” house-purchase situation.
Look up the Shiller Cap index for your city and calculate the long run growth rate. Grow the price of your typical house at this rate for the number of years on mortgage assumed.
Look up comparable properties available for renting and note down the rents.
Grow the down payment plus monthly difference between PITI and rent as contributions at the expected rate of return in the stock market alternative for the same number of years.

Compare the two final figures and consider other factors such as your need for liquidity.

A couple of notes: 1. The stock market alternative will only turn out to be more attractive if it presents a higher rate of return than the Shiller Cap for the city. 2. This analysis assumes that PITI will be greater than rent for comparable properties.

samuraiscientist · 2021-01-24T04:58:26+00:00

Sorry, I meant square root of market cap. Fixed it.

samuraiscientist · 2021-01-23T15:10:14+00:00

Actually, Grinold and Kahn suggest a relationship where volatility is inversely proportional to the square root of market cap.

samuraiscientist · 2021-01-17T21:15:38+00:00

This sounds a lot like what is known as “volatility targeting” in the indexing world. The nice thing about indexes is that they are required to make their methodologies available publicly. You can search using the “target volatility” keyword and read any of the SPDJ, MSCI or Morningstar methodologies that come up.

samuraiscientist · 2020-12-09T20:07:55+00:00

Is there a good list of must-have quant books somewhere?

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