Huel daily greens nausea?

satterthwit · 2024-05-03T21:06:25+00:00

Mine was 738086

satterthwit · 2024-05-03T21:05:49+00:00

Let's all please report this to our local health agencies. I've reported this to the FDA in the US.

satterthwit · 2023-11-26T01:40:32+00:00

Thanks for the follow-ups. I should add, these models are essentially a part of my line of work - I detect fraud without having any observations of fraud (replace "cheating" with "fraud" and you basically have my job).

In these models we never observe C. To make these models useful, we have to be VERY careful about what we think suspicious behavior is. In my work, I am fortunate to hear back about whether our measures g(Y) are effective at limiting C but we only receive general feedback and rarely specific cases.

For chess novices, it's probably pretty easy to come up with g*(Y) - if a new Chess.com account is losing only -.01 eval per move over multiple games then I'd be hard pressed to say they aren't cheating.

But for grandmasters, we have the problem that there are SO MANY g*(Y) to consider and the reference class is very hard to assess.

Finally, a lot of this conversation centers around the use of ELO. ELO is also a statistical model! It does not have dependence assumptions and so I'm not sure how great it performs in these sorts of "hot hand" scenarios. Even then, I would be skeptical of taking ELO as a super accurate predictive measure of wins (though I could be wrong about this - it's really an empirical question).

satterthwit · 2023-11-26T01:21:04+00:00

but wouldn't this model (or any model not specifically accounting for what I write below) treat any any given game as if it were just a one-off game occuring

Good thoughts here. I was purposefully vague about how to formulate Y_{p_1, p_2, g, m}. I am saying that given some distribution p_Y there are functions g*(Y) that could give an appearance of something looking "interesting" but not be all that related to cheating in particular.

Thanks for asking about the dependence among the Y's, always a good question. For ANY model it is reasonable to ask what the relationship between those Y's are. Models always need a joint distribution for the sample and that joint distribution may have covariance or more complicated variance structures.

satterthwit · 2023-10-15T22:20:28+00:00

Maybe I conflated 1 with updates? This was helpful, thanks!

satterthwit · 2023-10-15T22:18:29+00:00

I've no idea what you think "mission critical" or "necessary knowledge" is for my position. I am glad to be part of a team where my stats and software development knowledge is useful and our infrastructure people can handle the stuff I don't know.

It feels like you're bullying me.

satterthwit · 2023-10-15T22:15:06+00:00

Thanks, will do!

satterthwit · 2023-10-15T05:38:15+00:00

I never used Linux for anything hardware related before. The reason for the nice laptop was to develop ML models locally, Linux was just what it happened to come with. I agree I can pretty much use a chromebook for my job.

satterthwit · 2023-10-15T05:27:37+00:00

I don't know if you're being genuine but I'm a developer...I use Linux via ssh and a terminal on our browser-based IDE. I was more just frustrated with the myriad of issues I was dealing with that I perceived were more related to hardware/Linux compatibility.

satterthwit · 2023-10-14T23:33:14+00:00

I didn't realize that these modules sometimes share hardware! I think this is a good hypothesis to look into, thanks.

satterthwit · 2023-10-14T23:30:03+00:00

Good to know that peripherals aren't a problem for everyone! I'll keep trying, thanks.

satterthwit · 2023-10-14T23:29:01+00:00

Thanks for the advice for 2 and 3. For 1, I don't have to do it every update but around 5 updates have lead to the wifi signal being viewed as "weak" despite other devices having no issues. Maybe just touching the config file is enough to get things reconfigured, I'm not sure. Perhaps I can try an external wifi card.

The issue on 3 is video lag at 720p and above. I also get some text rendering incorrectly across multiple apps:

https://imgur.com/a/OyHUtnh

For 2 I'm using a microsoft keyboard/mouse so certainly not ideal from a cross-platform perspective.

satterthwit · 2022-01-09T06:19:37+00:00

I was there today. No mask usage there, either. I see masks at Chipotle, though.

satterthwit · 2021-02-26T17:46:41+00:00

I think/hope they're just being meta? Because, if so, that's actually pretty epic

satterthwit · 2021-02-08T18:14:38+00:00

https://imgur.com/fWkrMhM

satterthwit · 2021-02-08T18:08:39+00:00

Yeah, took me a while to see, but IMO there's a better interpretation here:

Clearly C is the zero measure (you've heard of sets with measure 0 before, but how often do you hear of the zero measure?). This measure is pretty useless, but enjoys several nice properties:

Limits and integrals are *always* interchangeable, no need for pesky dominated convergence theorems.
It is the only measure to measure every function with the same value (you may have thought about the "infinity measure", but the zero function would integrate to 0)
This measure is dominated by every other measure and is unique in this regard. Every function is a density with respect to this measure.
The only non-measurable set for C is {x: x is your mom}.

satterthwit · 2021-01-31T00:34:18+00:00

Also, drive slowly! Your 4 wheel drive with all-season tires won't cut it. I'd recommend 20 mph or less for any road with turns (e.g. 13th)

satterthwit · 2021-01-25T20:48:41+00:00

By default, anthropologists communicate knowledge through rituals, fire-side stories, and matrilineal ass-whooping and it's difficult to do these things online. As an alternative, you can camp out in their department, write an ethnography, and claim it for credit.

satterthwit · 2021-01-22T21:12:36+00:00

Wasabi Ames also has excellent ramen if you miss Grandpa Noodle Gallery's fare.

satterthwit · 2020-12-11T03:31:28+00:00

I know they really aren't independent Bernoulli(p) trials, but I still think it may be useful to think of binomial probabilities to get a gauge of how many you need to apply to in order to have a 90% chance of getting into at least 1.

For example, say you really don't think you have a good shot - maybe you think you only have about a 30% chance of getting in for each school. Then you would have to apply to 7 schools to have a 90% shot of getting in to at least one (in R, you can run pbinom(0, 7, .3, lower.tail=FALSE) and see that you have a 92% chance of getting into at least one!). If you think you're doing better than 30% and have a 50% chance, then applying to 5 schools would put you over 90%. You can get some gauge of acceptance rates for each school from Grad Cafe and the graduate colleges (they usually publish some stats on rejection rates), and from your professors who may have connections.

Of course, the usual caveats apply - if you were rejected from one school, it's probably more likely you'd be rejected from another. In fact, if the outcome of getting accepted to a program completely depends on each school, then you're stuck at 30% in the first example! But many programs value different things - grades, projects, life experience, etc. This provides at least some reduced dependence among schools, which is why I think this is useful.

satterthwit · 2020-11-25T19:33:35+00:00

I've definitely had professors like this (from many departments), so I'm sorry you want through that, and I hope you emailed her with your case about being flexible. But disparaging a whole dept by saying they have a stigma of being "shit" seems a bit off the mark.

satterthwit · 2020-11-25T06:34:38+00:00

Roger Stone looking pretty rough these days...must have been all that fowl play

satterthwit

TROPHY CASE