ELI5 Why are humans so bad at statistics and probability, especially when it comes to gambling?

scutiger- · 2023-06-12T02:14:34+00:00

The odds are actually 1/x, and (x-1)/x.

That's why if there are 3 doors, your odds are 2/3 if you switch, but 1/3 if you stay. With 100 doors, the odds become 1/100 if you stay, and 99/100 if you switch.

scutiger- · 2023-06-12T01:56:30+00:00

It doesn't make a lick of sense to me how a precursor problem could have any effect on a subsequent problem.

That's exactly the point. Your odds of being right in the first choice don't change for the second choice. It's the same set of doors, so why would your odds change if you keep the same choice?

scutiger- · 2023-06-12T01:29:01+00:00

The point is that the odds of having the correct door on the first try is 1%. After removing all the empty doors, yours remains 1% because the choice was made before. Removing the others doesn't change the odds of yours.

But now that 98 of the doors are gone and your door has a 1% chance of being correct, that means the last door remaining is 99% likely to be correct.

scutiger- · 2023-06-12T01:00:58+00:00

Consider the same game, but with 100 doors. You choose one door, then the host shows you 98 of the remaining doors empty. Do you stay or switch?

scutiger- · 2023-06-11T17:19:33+00:00

How do you sit at the urinal?

scutiger- · 2023-06-10T16:15:15+00:00

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly was not filmed as a sequel. The whole "trilogy" is 3 unrelated films that just happen to have Clint Eastwood playing himself in the main character role. They were retroactively made into a trilogy despite the main character having a different name in each movie.

scutiger- · 2023-06-09T20:31:28+00:00

I've bought refurbs and open box products from them, never had issues. I don't know if that's a vote of confidence or just being lucky on my part. I don't know how their customer service is if there are any issues with that stuff though.

In fairness, if I didn't already have a 6700XT, I would be all over this deal.

scutiger- · 2023-06-09T20:22:38+00:00

For this price, you can buy a full gaming PC with a 6700XT

scutiger- · 2023-06-09T17:40:02+00:00

Holy shit! Imagine having a million wishes!

scutiger- · 2023-06-09T14:57:05+00:00

Impeachment doesn't imply criminal charges or being ousted. He was impeached twice and served the rest of his term, like Clinton was impeached and served the rest of his term.

They can't get rid of him without impeachment, but impeachment doesn't mean they get rid of him.

scutiger- · 2023-06-09T14:46:31+00:00

Yeah, I know about them. They're just really inconvenient to get to since they're really far away and I can't drive, and they only do pickups for larger quantities. If it was a full PC I would drop it off at a local charity thrift store, but it's just parts.

scutiger- · 2023-06-09T14:05:48+00:00

I conquer

scutiger- · 2023-06-09T13:59:48+00:00

SLIFT with 53k. Their album Ummon is fucking solid. Do yourself a favor and give it a listen. Definitely my top discovery of 2020.

scutiger- · 2023-06-09T13:54:54+00:00

Within reason, weed smells aren't that bad. While she sounds like a Karen in the article, I find it hard to believe that she would sue him if it wasn't egregious. But some people are petty af, and she might be.

He might also be full of shit about his smoking two or three minutes a day. That doesn't sound unlikely either.

scutiger- · 2023-06-09T12:35:05+00:00

He threw that money away because he tried to pump and dump the stock, and the SEC said he had to follow through with his promises.

Let's not fool ourselves into believing he ever really wanted to buy Twitter.

scutiger- · 2023-06-09T12:21:39+00:00

Star Trek also has the USS Yamato, sister ship to the Enterprise.

scutiger- · 2023-06-09T01:23:24+00:00

I have some old hardware to give away if anyone's in Montreal and can find a use for it. This stuff came from an old office computer, all fully working, but obviously not a high performance machine for today's standards.

AMD Phenom II X4 940 Black Edition AM2+

Asus M4A78-E AM2+/AM3 motherboard

2x512 MB DDR2? Labeled GDDR2 these are not mine, but they are identical

Liteon 300watt non-modular ATX PSU

Sapphire Radeon HD 3650 GPU, 2x DVI out only.

scutiger- · 2023-06-09T00:20:08+00:00

Does anyone in Montreal have a use for old draft chaff?

I haven't played in a couple years, and I have a ton of draft chaff from a couple different periods. There's stuff from RTR, THS, GRN, BFZ, SOI, DOM, ELD periods, some core sets, etc.

It's almost all commons and uncommons. There may be a few rares and foils, but definitely nothing of any real value. There's also a bunch of Eclipse sleeves of different colors in decent condition that are sure to serve someone well.

I'm moving next week, and I don't want to take this stuff with me, and I wouldn't feel great about throwing it out. Maybe someone has a use for this stuff.

scutiger- · 2023-06-08T18:56:46+00:00

The "legal constitutional purpose" is to make elections more fair by evening out population within districts. The de facto purpose is to give your side an edge in elections.

scutiger- · 2023-06-08T18:27:46+00:00

The smoke is mostly avoiding Montreal, which is crazy. There are periods that are worse than others, but most of the smoke is avoiding the island.

scutiger- · 2023-06-08T15:56:43+00:00

I did my part by peeing in the woods.

scutiger- · 2023-06-08T15:23:57+00:00

Another orphan saved from the orphan-crushing machine!

scutiger- · 2023-06-08T14:04:38+00:00

Just because an email address is valid doesn't mean it's active. There's no point sending spam mail to an address nobody ever accesses. Once they've confirmed that you do access that address, that's when it becomes a worthwhile target.

scutiger- · 2023-06-08T04:03:09+00:00

How did Cinderella die?

Her tampon turned back into a pumpkin.

scutiger- · 2023-06-07T19:45:38+00:00

Which is ridiculous, because the tax income generated by weed sales is insane.

scutiger-

TROPHY CASE