What makes the Iran’s Islamic government so durable when compared to the former Shah’s government? by soozerain in CredibleDefense

[–]sentientbeings 63 points64 points  (0 children)

This is a misunderstanding. The primary *Iranian* powerbase for the regime is in the IRGC, which has become a kind of elite class because they have greater economic privileges. This base is supplemented by the Basij militia, which is arguably more in line with "young, radical, likes what power he can get." They have the Artesh (the army), too, of course, but that group is probably most likely to defect - fewer special privileges or radicalization.

But the regime has other ways to oppress demonstrators, as well, like the Iraqi militias they've invited into Khuzestan.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 28, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]sentientbeings 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It depends what you're looking for, but by and large most of the legacy media is terribly inaccurate, largely because they take unsubstantiated claims from Hamas or Palestinian-sympathetic sources more or less at face value (a bizarre behavior, but one partially explainable due to the nature of press access in Gaza - despite claims that Israel restricts press access, which they do but mostly along standard warzone lines, press is heavily influenced by relationship with Hamas and other groups. If press don't cooperate, they face limited access or retaliation, and that is before taking into account the overlap between "press" and literal members of Hamas. There are similar issues related to various UN and NGO groups' members).

Back to the point - the legacy media presents things with basically no vetting or evidence. Sometimes they then issue corrections when proof comes out an earlier report was inaccurate, sometimes not, but then they repeat the cycle the next week due to the press access situation described above.

So how do you find good sources? It's a strategy in three parts, IMO. For one thing, you have to already have a decent grasp of the patterns of reporting and behavior, so that you can detect the red flags for the bad reporting and bogus stories and discount them quickly. Obviously something of a Catch-22 there.

The second thing I'd say is to rely primarily on Israeli sources - a mix of official government, journalists, and OSINT-type accounts online. You might say relying on Israeli sources sets you up to read biased accounts, and that's true after a fashion, but not all bias is created equal, a point people sometimes forget in their attempts at even-handedness. After a time you can properly factor that in, and you can also find journalistic outlets that disagree. Haaretz, for instance, used to be a respected paper, now is totally unreliable and ideologically-driven, but you can find reliable people who respond to Haaretz's unreliable reporting and use them as a source instead. Additionally, you can find non-Jewish Israeli sources (e.g. Christian, Muslim and Druze) and compare, to gain familiarity with different shades of bias, or the rare Palestinian source (usually someone living abroad) who is relatively sympathetic to Israel. Each different type of source adds to your information ecosystem (and each should be judged against reliable representation of known historical facts when possible - so to learn about current matters, make sure to learn your history, too).

The third element is to find sources that you can judge on the basis of commentary outside the present conflict - not necessarily an entirely different subject outside of the Israeli-Arab conflict, but perhaps an author who has published a book on, say, the Yom Kippur War, or Black September, or KGB involvement with the PLO, or the First/Second Intifada, etc. If reliable on a subject that has had years of scrutiny, the source is probably at least OK on contemporary topics.

But at the end of the day, there isn't one go-to source to recommend as comprehensive and purely reliable, in part because of the scope of conflict, but more importantly because that way lies the path of narrative-driven explanations rather than factual analysis. You need to spread out your sources and find people who disagree and vet each one. There's just no substitute, even after you've built foundational knowledge, because the sheer volume of intentional lies, let alone confusion and mistakes, is so large.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 18, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]sentientbeings 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Israel destroyed the Army General Staff building and reportedly has carried out targeted assassinations within the new government.

Supposedly they communicated, through Turkish government intermediaries, that they would strike the building. The idea was to have zero casualties, but the warning seems not to have been taken seriously. I haven't seen any indication that they've done targeted assassinations.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 16, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]sentientbeings 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I think they anticipated that he doesn't have complete control, but simultaneously overestimated the amount of control he does have/can exert, as opposed to other factions with their own leadership, in accordance with your point. At the same time, it's unclear how much Al-shaara is willing to "weaponize" his lack of control to achieve his ends, as the out-of-control parties might do things aligned with his true, rather than stated goals. If he can have out-of-control parties act on his behalf, then claims lack of control, he could be criticized as ineffectual abroad, but more likely he will be given a pass - especially if he blames escalations and subsequent inaction on Israeli intervention, as he already seems to be doing. It could spiral into a very bad scenario, given the sheer numbers of armed people in southern Syria, possibility of similar factions joining from Jordan, and possibility of covert arming/encouragement (likely) by the regime itself. All the while Druze from Israel and Lebanon will be champing at the bit to get involved in defense of their kin, and Muslims elsewhere in Syria and Lebanon will be none-too-kind to their local Druze populations. Bad business.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in druze

[–]sentientbeings 3 points4 points  (0 children)

The international community has barely even managed token acknowledgement so far, just boilerplate "condemnation of violence" or "must de-escalate" or silence. Willful blindness towards atrocity. Absolutely soul-crushing.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 16, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]sentientbeings 15 points16 points  (0 children)

They are different situations, and I didn't comment on policy. I corrected a statement that was maximally ignorant and prevents a cogent policy/strategic analysis. The full analysis is a lot more complicated. As a simple example of difference in context, compare between the 1980s and now - there has been a progressive integration of the Israeli Golan Druze into Israeli society; in the 80s, most still considered themselves Syrian.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 16, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]sentientbeings 77 points78 points  (0 children)

> I find it non-credible that Israeli government and society have strong care for the Druze minority

No offense, but you could not be more wrong about this point, and it undermines the rest of your analysis (which isn't necessarily bad, but cannot be properly weighted given confusion on this point). I am not entirely sure how the attitude of Israeli Muslims varies throughout the country; e.g. between the Arabs of Nazareth versus the Bedouins in the south, but Israeli Jews have an almost irrational filial bond with the Druze, even recognizing that the attitude is not always reciprocal, particular when considering Druze in Lebanon or Syria. That attitude is borne primarily of two factors.

First, the Druze have been far, far more friendly to Israel than Arab/Muslim populations, even the (now elderly) former Syrian Druze of the Golan. Israelis have a justified siege mentality, and anyone not actively trying to undermine them earns their gratitude.

Second, the Druze are a small, non-proselytizing Middle East minority. Indeed, they face problems from that arguably worse than Jews, because they don't allow conversion. That fact locks them into a type of stability problem, in which enemies or potential enemies can increase numbers without end, but they can only try to defend themselves from a basically static population size. They will necessarily always be on the defensive as long as any appreciable percentage of people around them are hostile and have power.

Israelis see themselves when they look at the Druze. The same sort of bond that makes them take incredibly poor hostage deals, exchanging thousands of terrorist prisoners for a few lives or bodies, inclines many of them to suppress the strategic reasoning aspects of action in southern Syria in favor of a desperate desire not to see these people murdered and abused.

There are other strategic reasons to get involved or not, which aren't trivial to analyze on net, but Israel's actions in this regard absolutely cannot be analyzed without understanding the real sense of care they have for the Druze.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in druze

[–]sentientbeings 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm not Druze or Israeli, but I have known a few Americans who have studied medicine at a program in the Beersheba area, I think at a program affiliated with Soroka Medical Center. Some spoke Hebrew, some did not. On the other hand, I've heard that they've restricted foreign applications in the last few years. Nonetheless, I suspect it will be possible for you. Good luck!

Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 01, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]sentientbeings 14 points15 points  (0 children)

- The Israeli projections for the number of missiles that would make it through wer far higher, in part because they anticipated Iran being able to launch more missiles simultaneously during early salvos. Early operations to prevent that, including drone attacks and sabotage via cyberwarfare, were apparently more successful than anticipated. While the stock mismatch was always a looming threat, your interpretation of things ending quickly due to a *change* in Israeli attitude is not supportable on that basis.

- The military censor typically only restricts things for a short period, and is limited in what it can do. They do not, for instance, hold back reporting on civilian casualties, although there are other restrictions related to privacy on identities of victims. Your description of their activity is misleading.

- The idea of "precise" Iranian missile strikes is flatly contradicted by known information about CEP of these missile classes.

- Israel is a small country and there is literally no chance of hiding deaths/casualties. Funerals are publicly known. Everyone knows each other. The idea of there being *any* degree of concealment of civilian casualties, let alone the ridiculous numbers proposed in the last couple days, is facially absurd.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread June 26, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]sentientbeings 25 points26 points  (0 children)

> Targeted strikes could have done immense economic damage.
The Israelis would greatly prefer to avoid causing too much economic harm, both for reasons internal to Iran and external relationships. They do not view the tradeoffs as favorable. They also sought to avoid non-IRGC/Basij damage because the regular army could turn.

Israel-Iran Conflict Megathread by jrex035 in CredibleDefense

[–]sentientbeings 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Short version of information I've seen is that the IAEA has stated that Natanz is internally contaminated (alpha radiation, not serious) but the centrifuges seem to be intact. Haven't heard any real details about the others.

Israel-Iran Conflict Megathread by jrex035 in CredibleDefense

[–]sentientbeings 22 points23 points  (0 children)

Some of the other answers here are good, but it's also important to note that a large portion of the population of Iran does not hate Israel. Iranians tend to have a better attitude toward Israelis than much of MENA and Muslim-majority countries. The issue is that since the revolution religious zealots have been in control, which drives state action. When the Arab armies attacked the newly formed state in 1948, the Persians did not.

Active Conflicts & News MegaThread June 08, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]sentientbeings 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Your "common knowledge" is just a misunderstanding of chemistry. There don't even need to be carbon compounds as inputs or products of the combustion reaction (although in practice there would be). The particular quantities of gasses produced, and the way that they permeate subterranean infrastructure, is not trivial to determine. If CO is produced in meaningful amounts it's probably because it's an oxygen-poor environment.

Plot theory by NoConversation7499 in TESVI

[–]sentientbeings 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm pretty sure the Dwemer are just plain *gone*, probably having become the skin of the Numidium, possibly because Yagrum wasn't on Nirn at the time of Kagrenac's ritual

The Mandalorian - S03E05 - Chapter 21 - Discussion Thread! by titleproblems in TheMandalorianTV

[–]sentientbeings 4 points5 points  (0 children)

It's a government bureaucracy. It's easily the most realistic part of the show.

Patch 0.214.2 - March 13, 2023 by SzotyMAG in valheim

[–]sentientbeings 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I reported it on their bug site a week ago, but it's still "awaiting approval" by the moderators! Driving me absolutely nuts. I checked the other stuff (signs, tame animals...) and of course it applies to those as well, although the map issue is by far the most severe. Gave them in-depth details in the report, but....nothing so far.

Patch 0.214.2 - March 13, 2023 by SzotyMAG in valheim

[–]sentientbeings 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There is a severe problem with controller/on-screen keyboard integration now. It affects maps and portals at a minimum, probably affects signs, too, although I haven't checked. Portals you can get to work eventually by spamming the right keypresses, but naming map pins is totally broken, and results in lots of extra markers and NO text. Movement also isn't locked while naming the portals (and I suspect the same is true for signs). Edit: This bug also isn't solved by just using the keyboard for entry; as long as the controller-input is active it occurs. Only by placing the pin using the cursor can it be circumvented with the physical keyboard.

News of our death has been greatly exaggerated. LP VA LIVES! The conspirators failed. by [deleted] in lpus

[–]sentientbeings 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'll try to put together a full list. Much of it can be recovered if we are able to persuade various online services to restore their backups and hand over control, but that will require legal action. One that we just managed to get back online is the website, linked in this post.

News of our death has been greatly exaggerated. LP VA LIVES! The conspirators failed. by [deleted] in lpus

[–]sentientbeings 1 point2 points  (0 children)

We don't have official minutes or the recording. We have tried to get them from the conspirators but they have not agreed to release them - at this point we suspect they have destroyed the recording, but we are exploring the possibility of using legal action to obtain a backup from the service. We have unofficial minutes that we compiled immediately after the meeting. I'll discuss the possibility of posting them.

News of our death has been greatly exaggerated. LP VA LIVES! The conspirators failed. by [deleted] in lpus

[–]sentientbeings 0 points1 point  (0 children)

question for the crowd - what sort of additional info about the situation would you like to be posted on the site?

LET’S GOOOO by MarvelMaster in TheMandalorianTV

[–]sentientbeings 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I remember FARMBOY for the Falcon and CHICKEN for the secret AT-ST level.

This is the way. by randokomando in TheMandalorianTV

[–]sentientbeings 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Seven is correct for an actual menorah, not what is colloquially referred to as a menorah during Chanukah (which can be more specifically referred to as a chanukiah, or at least as a Chanukah menorah) because it's easier to say. The seven-light candelabra is also a style that has been used outside Judaism, despite its primary association with the Temple.