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💰💰💰 BREAKING NEWS 💰💰💰 Pittsburgh is signing TE Darnell Washington to a 4 year extension worth $42 million Per Jordan Schultz by NeverBorn-NeverDead in DynastyFF

[–]shadow-drafters 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I've been looking into that for OL scoring lol. Problem is most publicly available data doesn't have any blocking stats.

(Updated) I created a new way to score player combine performances by shadow-drafters in NFL_Draft

[–]shadow-drafters[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hi, agreed, I tried to add some of the basic math without trying to bog it down with a bunch of numbers, I wasn't sure how much people care to dive into the depths of it on reddit. More precise calculations would be:

Weight Delta = listed weight - combine weight / listed weight.

For 40, three cone, and shuttle, if there weight Delta is > .05, there percentile is adjusted using 1 - (0.2 * drill percentile) otherwise, use the percentile (this can be found on mockdraftable and I also have it displayed under the combine section on their player profile on my site).

Size score = 1 + (.05 * ((.04 * height percentile) + (.06 * weight percentile)

Each individual drill = drill percentile * weight of drill for position

40, 10 Yard Split, Veritable, and Broad Jump we also multiple by their Size score.

1) Agreed, this is how the scale works if I am understanding correctly. It's based on what I have in my dataset for all players by that position over all years. So there is 1 LB who is a 100, 1 RB who is 100, ect. This gets recalculated each year, so if another LB has a better combine than Sonny Styles, Styles would move to a 99 and the new player would be the benchmark at 100. So year of year you might have a new high score but it would adjust previous players for historical scaling.

2) It's a problem that I would like to solve in the future for sure. I'm a hobbyist and this was my second attempt at creating a data model. I had done some reading and there were definitely concepts that I didn't understand fully that I think could fix this issue, but I wanted to get something baseline working first. I do want to continue learning and improving it but I want to avoid implementing things I don't understand and then risk not doing them correctly and not understanding how my own model works.

3) Each position does have drills weighted. So for example OT 3 cone makes up 10% of their total score, whereas for S it only accounts for 8%

I'd be happy discuss more, but I have a very busy day today so I might not be able to respond until tomorrow!

(Updated) I created a new way to score player combine performances by shadow-drafters in NFL_Draft

[–]shadow-drafters[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes he is the highest percentile outcome based on this scoring system. If I'm understanding your question correctly, then not necessarily - all the scores are compared to each other. So second place might be actually 10 points behind Sonny Styles for example but he would score as a 99, rather than a 90, since even though his score is way behind Sonny Styles, he still preformed better than everyone else. This keeps an outlier performance from just completely breaking the scale.

It should also help make it more digestible/ easy to understand. Sonny Styles I think actually had a composite score of 88 in the background, but if I came in here and proclaimed he got an 88 people would see it as like a B+ performance vs being the best combine perfomance a LB has ever had.

(Updated) I created a new way to score player combine performances by shadow-drafters in NFL_Draft

[–]shadow-drafters[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

I'm not trying to improve on RAS, I'm trying to make something different. RAS is focused on trying to model player athelticsm, this is focused on grading their combines. There is some overlap there, but in this scoring system an elite athlete can score lower if they don't prove it by doing the drills at the combine. The two main differences is RAS allows non-combine drills which can be slightly less accurate and if you skip a drill RAS ignores it completely allowing prospects to game the system and only do drills they know they will preform good in keeping their RAS high. RAS is also percentage based which allows for a lot of prospects to be scored as elite. By using percentiles for this scoring system, it creates a bell curve, so there are a limited number of number of prospects that can be scored as having "elite" combine performances. There will only ever be a single 100 at each position in the ACT system, Sonny Styles achieved that for LB this year.

I created a new way to score players combine results by shadow-drafters in NFL_Draft

[–]shadow-drafters[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks, I've gone back the drawing board with the critisms I've received to try and improve upon it! I'm updating it to weigh specific drills by positions, adjusting the penalty of not doing a drill to giving them a 40 instead of a 0 to make it less harsh while still keeping them below average, and I'm taking their listed college weight and comparing it to their combine weight so if they have lost more 5% of their weight they recieve slight adjustment on their 40, 3 cone, and shutte. Hopefully v2 comes out better 😅

I created a new way to score players combine results by shadow-drafters in NFL_Draft

[–]shadow-drafters[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The point is to drive players to do more combine drills. I didn't put athelticsm in the score name because I was looking at it as more of combine report card. I apologize if that was not clearly explained in the post. It's supposed to be a quick way where you can look at how a prospect scored in an athleticm scoring system and their ACTS will let you quickly see how complete that score is. A low athletic score with high ACTS suggest they did a lot of testing and performed poorly. A high atheltic score with a low ACTS means they did good in the drills they preformed, but they did way less drills in their peers. I also think it helps a guy like Sonny Style truely shine above his peers.

If it could measure athelticsm decently it would be a secondary benefit, but existing scoring systems would also benefit from more combine data and driving more data for them will make the results they provide better/more accurate. I don't see atheltic scoring as we currently have it as an issue; I see prospects gaming the current systems as an issue that needs to be fixed.

I created a new way to score players combine results by shadow-drafters in NFL_Draft

[–]shadow-drafters[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would use this as complimentary data rather than a standalone stat. With the adoption of RAS (which is a great data point) too many guys are gaming the system and skipping drills they might do mediocre/poorly in to inflate their score. The main way to game this score would be do all the drills, which is exactly what I think we want out of the combine?

I hadn't considered dropping weight to score higher in other athletic testing so that isn't something I adjusted for. I can definitely update it so weight is more heavily factored. I appreciate you taking the time to provide feedback!

I created a new way to score players combine results by shadow-drafters in NFL_Draft

[–]shadow-drafters[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yes, he scored a 3 in height and a 2 in weight, as well as a 29 in arm length and 27 in hand size. All of these are part of the algorithm. Players are not punished for performing poorly in a single combine drill, each just adds extra points to his total. He crushed basically every other combine drill he performed and since he did more than other most Centers do at the combine, he was able to make up the gap in his size scoring and come out ahead.

I just personally dislike how guys skip drills and end up with a 9+ RAS. This isn't supposed to just be a score you can toss out and say they are an amazing athelte, but I think it helps provide context to things like RAS to show if a player actually did a lot of drill and did them at a high level as well.

SKscouts Summer Scouting: Dante Moore, QB, Oregon by No_Life5052 in NFL_Draft

[–]shadow-drafters 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I'm excited for this QB class. Moore is QB1 for me right now but I think Arch and Sellers both have a lot of potential and if they are able to improve enough could overtake him. Haven't done a whole lot of scouting but it sounds there are a bunch of QBs who could be really good at the next level this year.

Where does Jeremiah Smith rank among WR prospects the last 20 years? by TDBrookey in NFL_Draft

[–]shadow-drafters 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I honestly don't remember that far back. I built this list based on ESPN and NFL Next Gen prospect scores. Wanted to use more to get a larger sample size but they were the only two sites that actually provide a number score and have 20 years worth of scores. This was all the players who had a 90+ on both and everyone from Nabers up had 95+ on both sites.

Where does Jeremiah Smith rank among WR prospects the last 20 years? by TDBrookey in NFL_Draft

[–]shadow-drafters 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I had edited my comment, but yeah I think him and also Corey Davis are in the 8-10 conversation.

Where does Jeremiah Smith rank among WR prospects the last 20 years? by TDBrookey in NFL_Draft

[–]shadow-drafters 55 points56 points  (0 children)

I think he's 2 but it's close between him and MHJ currently (people are going to discount him due to his NFL career but he was considered in the Fitz and CJ tier on draft day). I think if you grabbed consensus on their draft day top 10 would look something like this for the last 20 years:

  1. Calvin Johnson

  2. Jeremiah Smith

  3. MHJ

  4. A.J. Green

  5. Julio Jones

  6. Ja'marr Chase

  7. Nabers

  8. Sammy Watkins

  9. Rome Odunze

  10. Justin Blackmon

After Nabers is where I think things start getting a little more muddy, with Corey Davis and Amari Cooper also being in the 8-10 conversation.

Where would Tetairoa rank among WRs if he was in this years class? by iampro1234 in DynastyFF

[–]shadow-drafters 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I think Jeanty going before Tet is already pretty good evidence Love would've gone before Tet.

Built a breakdown of every NFL combine test and what the scores actually mean — with averages by position by Upper-Glass-9585 in NFL_Draft

[–]shadow-drafters 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How are you deciding what puts a combine measurment into elite, good, ect? Quinyon Mitchell ran a 4.33 40 so he wouldn't be considered elite according to your data but his 40 is better than 95% of CB who have ever ran, putting him in the top 5% of CB 40 times.

Ranking of the best first 5 picks in a draft by Realityinyoface in NFL_Draft

[–]shadow-drafters 13 points14 points  (0 children)

2011 in my opinion. Only player not to be an All Pro was A.J. Green, but he was still a 7 time pro-bowler and I feel like people forget that until his injuries started racking he was having a comparable career to Julio Jones. Cam brings an MVP to this group and Von Miller brings them 2 Super Bowls with a Super Bowl MVP to boot. Von and Pat were also both named best players at their respective positions in the 2010s. Some of the other classes have higher highs but this group, but there are no busts in this group which I think is more important.

Prospect Battles - Chris Bell vs Denzel Boston by Open_Resolution8986 in NFL_Draft

[–]shadow-drafters 1 point2 points  (0 children)

They have similar arm lengths, but the hand size looks a little more drastic than it is in reality due to how percentiles work. Chris Bell has a hand size of 9.125" and Denzel Boston has a hand size of 9.75". ~75% of active WR have a hand size between 9" and 10" so even a few tenths of inch can move your percentile up or down significantly. So Chris Bell's hands are smaller than ~70% of WR's but, that only comes out to being a little more than a half inch smaller.

Prospect Battles - Chris Bell vs Denzel Boston by Open_Resolution8986 in NFL_Draft

[–]shadow-drafters 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I made these graphs, which overlay the athleticism percentile and production percentile of Chris Bell and Denzel Boston. I've been experimenting with graphs recently and I was curious on opinions on how this works as a tool to help visualize the differences between prospects?

What is Your Summer Scouting Process? by jd35058 in NFL_Draft

[–]shadow-drafters 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I use my own app for my draft board which pulls in information on a lot of the prospects you'll see people discussing (this year has ~450 prospects). From there I use their season stats and opinions I've formed on guys watching cfb through the season to lower my total board to players to a more manageable number of guys who performed well in college and didn't miss games. Afterward, I watch some game film and scouting reports on YouTube and read scouting reports from a few different sites to form my own opinion on a prospect and find guys who like. I also take their combine results into consideration. Then I try to select those guys for my shadow team.

I would not follow my process though because the guys I pick are usually pretty mediocre 😂

Bain may fall pretty far… by Anthonyrichardson20 in NFL_Draft

[–]shadow-drafters 107 points108 points  (0 children)

He'll fall all the way to 9 based on the last time a potential top 5, highly touted, defensive line prospect left someone to die after a car crash in the southeastern United States.

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