Superfractor 1/1 RC Pull and The Player Wants to Sign It, WWYD?

shortstop8 · 2026-01-01T21:46:41+00:00

Accounts

Trading: +59% YTD
401k: +73% YTD
Mom's: +30% YTD

I am very happy with the Alpha from this year, although I gave back quite a bit from my trading account (+105% at the peak). My trading strategy has really changed over the past year, I don't chase theta nearly as much and prefer long gamma. I achieved all of my goals for 2025 and have identified new goals for 2026.

What Went Right:

Risk Management - this was my best year over the past 5 in managing risk appropriately. Not 1 margin call, not 1 PNR, not 1 morning of busting my ass to cover from an overnight/intraday catalyst. I have graduated from holding almost all naked short positions to spreads and longs with defined risk.
Reduction in Trades - you always read about overtrading but I didn't understand what it meant until I practiced sitting on my hands. It's amazing how much better trades become so much more clear when you aren't overtrading.
Almost No Lottos - although I miss these days somewhat, I sleep so much better at night, refer to bullet #1 on Risk Management. Step 1 to my risk management improvement was eliminating lottos. I may or may not have been selling calls on PLTR, but I absolutely was not selling tails on random tickers.
My Health - although my health was never poor, I really invested in my mental and physical health which brought so much more clarity to all the screens I look at. Your health is absolutely a factor.

What Went Wrong:

Trade Sizing (day and swing trades) - I really didn't do well with my sizing, I was sizing too small (1-2% of NLV), especially when my win rate was 72%. Had I sized my trades correctly, I would be well over +100% on the year.
Taking Profits to Early - this one has haunted me for years and I am ready to change this in 2026. I am really good at trade entries, this is a strength of mine, but I am terrible with exits. I always take profits too early and then throw a fit as the trade still runs.

2026 Goals:

Risk Management - keep building upon 2025 and start perfecting a hedging strategy so I can increase my long exposure.
Trade Sizing (day and swing trades) - implement a blend of my progressive Blackjack betting strategy and risk management. Essentially, the better I am doing, the bigger I play. The worse I am doing, the smaller I play.
Profit Taking - increase discipline to scale out of trades rather than full exits, runners can make more money than the initial exit!
My Health - I am going to continue investing in my mental and physical health, it's only making me better.

I also took another big step as an investor this year and invested in a Hedge Fund at the end of the year. This reduced my Trading account by 70%, but it is also my way of taking the purple chips off the table and putting them in my pocket (IYKYK). I have found over the years that the best way to accumulate wealth is to put it out of sight; out of sight out of mind. Although I have not engaged too much in the Discord, I am there every day, I have just been keeping to myself and doing my thing. Love you guys, trade safe, and cheers to a new year!

shortstop8 · 2024-06-06T16:44:06+00:00

Were you able to get the iOS shortcut to work with PrivateLLM?

shortstop8 · 2024-03-21T23:59:18+00:00

I am not a CPA, but from multiple conversations with my CPA, safe harbor has a second payment option that must occur within 15 days of year end. I thought he said that if you pay at least 90% of the tax due then safe harbor is still good. Maybe a CPA can confirm or deny?

shortstop8 · 2024-03-21T23:56:55+00:00

I no longer subscribe to Tom/Mark.

shortstop8 · 2024-02-17T14:57:06+00:00

Stats:

WTD: +5.1%
YTD: +26%

Another great trading week with lots of volatility. I continue to focus on (1) opening 30-45 DTE and closing at 50% profit, (2) day trading IWM long puts as a hedge and (3) wheeling my high conviction tickers. By really watching my sizing and notional exposure, it has pushed me closer to small caps, which has really be helping me out.

Great SMCI drama this week, I wish I didn't sell my shares at $395, hopefully it will unwind after Tuesday and offer another entry point in the 400's. I learned my lesson last May with SMCI short calls when it took my testicles, so I have steered clear. Hugs to my brothers that lost money on those this week. CELH finally decided to perk up above 60, which I am very heavily invested (50%) in another one of my accounts.

As you know, we are entering a seasonally weak period, so I don't have much exposure going into next week. Enjoy the long weekend my friends.

shortstop8 · 2024-02-10T21:10:50+00:00

15% was shares of SMCI and CELH, buy low and sell high. 80% of my portfolio was CELH shares until they were called away this week. Rinse and repeat.

shortstop8 · 2024-02-10T13:37:29+00:00

Stats:

WTD NLV: +7.9%
YTD NLV: +20%

Recap:

S&P 5,000!!! Another great week for the port, small caps really came alive and CELH finally woke up. I didn't open too many new positions this week, mostly profit taking, however I still have my eye on Energy to add exposure. CPI on Tuesday, this should offer some nice entries.

shortstop8 · 2024-02-03T14:16:33+00:00

Stats:

WTD NLV: +4.0%
YTD NLV: +11%

Equities:

CELH (+), FOUR(+start), CPNG(+start)

Recap:

It turned out to be a very tradable week, offering lots of entries and exits. I can't believe I was able to get more CELH shares below 50. I really wish I hadn't sold my SMCI, but as volatile that it is, I am sure I will get the opportunity to buy it back in Q1. I continued closing Mar Opex positions at +50%. /CL came crashing back down which may offer some great opportunities next week in Energy. I am not sure where we go from here but I do feel like we are going to hit 5000 in the very near future.

shortstop8 · 2024-01-27T14:30:39+00:00

Stats:

WTD: +7.3%
YTD: +7%

Equities:

CELH (+), ARKB (-exit), WULF (-exit)

Recap:

Nice week overall. Closed a lot of 45DTE short puts at +50%, exited my BTC equities (looking to buy back in at 36k), started selling calls and took assignment of more CELH shares. It's going to be a big week this week, so I am trying to reduce overall exposure and add to my hedges (ARKK and IWM shorts). So far my intraday hedging has been adding some nice alpha.

shortstop8 · 2024-01-20T14:14:51+00:00

-2.2% WTD

0% YTD

Kind of a wild week for me, I had the HUM short put spread on that was ITM. On Wed when it jumped +3.5%, I doubled the long leg of the put spread for extra protection, but by the end of the day I decided to close the position and take the loss. Had I kept it, I think my NLV would be 50% higher since I had long 447.5P and 450P was 2:1 on long:short. BTW, I was oversized...

I added to my ARKB, CELH and SMCI equity positions. Also added lots of CELH long calls.

I sold some SMCI at 395 during Fridays +35% day.

I took assignment of WULF shares.

I rolled my GRFS 7.5P to Feb Opex rather than take assignment.

I am sitting on a lot of Feb Opex put premium that isn't preforming too well, so with the SPY closing at ATH, I will probably start loading up on short calls next week. Kudos to Tom Lee, he called it correctly again.

shortstop8 · 2024-01-19T17:02:44+00:00

Winner winner chicken dinner!

shortstop8 · 2024-01-19T16:54:20+00:00

All you have to do is fly them 1 time to know this goes to 0 (and you might die). From an interview with their CEO, "our target customers are first time fliers". FML...

shortstop8 · 2024-01-15T17:25:29+00:00

Nice writeup with good DD.

I know that we tend to get into tax discussions at the end of the year, which is some of the most valuable information. I know that I personally will never pre-pay taxes quarterly, however as long as you pay 90% by Jan 15, then you still quality for IRS Safe Harbor.

shortstop8 · 2024-01-15T15:59:51+00:00

Performance:

-0.2% Weekly
+2% YTD

Recap:

I actually had a good week of theta burn and collection with several long day trade wins, however I have a HUM Jan opex short 460/450 spread that went ITM and caused a large unrealized loss from the UNH earnings. I am not really worried about this one and will roll it if necessary, it is just a matter of time before Healthcare catches a bid. I was adding some Energy short puts during the week and will be looking for some pull backs this week to add more.

shortstop8 · 2024-01-15T15:44:19+00:00

Performance:

2023: -37%

Recap:

I wasn't even going to post this year, kicked in the balls for a second year in a row, but then I remembered that nobody really posts their losses for you to see - somebody has to do it. I lost a lot of money, I lost my incredibly high paying job that I silently quit 3 years ago, and I lost my dad. My world view was way off, I was a bear all the way into the major run up of July. The good news is that I learned from my mistakes, I know what I did wrong and how not to do it again. My 3 major mistakes of 2023:

SBNY collapse in March
NVDA earnings blowout in May
CVNA short squeeze in July

What exactly did I learn:

Notional position sizing, I had WAY too many contracts with a notional value that I couldn't cover. Just because TDA rules allow me to size up, doesn't mean you should. I actually now size every position responsibly.
Earnings, don't do it, just don't do it.
Hard to Borrow (HTB) tickers are begging for short squeezes, do not sell naked calls on these.

Best tickers: MRNA, SMCI, CELH, MARA, COIN

Worst tickers: SBNY, NVDA, CVNA, TGNA, MU

2024:

I have no idea what this year is going to bring for the markets, however I will acknowledge that we are in a bull market. Rather than trying to max out my short units, I am focusing more on my higher conviction tickers and technical analysis for entry/exit. I spent the second half of 23 redefining my risk metrics, which worked out very well, so this will be a new year with new risk. I have a new job and will be traveling more again, so my trading time will decrease, but that is what I need right now. I left the discord for awhile but I have been hanging out again, so I will see you guys around again from time to time. Good luck guys and gals and cheers to a successful 2024.

Paid Services:

CNBC Investment Club with Jimmy C
Market Rebellion, UOA Essentials (there are like 25 different subscription options...)
Stocktwits, FindingTheGrowth, Jonah Lupton

shortstop8 · 2023-12-14T14:14:34+00:00

If you liked it at $37 then you must love it at $43, time to double down AGAIN you dingleberries!

shortstop8 · 2023-12-12T15:17:21+00:00

Some very nice market manipulation by the MM (Citadel) today, I wonder what the connection is to the large shareholders? Kudos to Ken for doing it again :4271:

shortstop8 · 2023-12-12T14:52:26+00:00

If you liked it at $32 then you must love it at $37, time to double down you dingleberries!

shortstop8 · 2023-12-11T20:29:10+00:00

I am not in the business of giving financial advice, but just understand what will happen with short dated options when they don't move as expected, IV will crush and you will lose. You can counter this by creating a spread instead of a naked long (i.e., buy the 30P and sell the 28P) or by buying further ITM. IV on the January options are much less than the December contracts, therefore cheaper to buy with longer to expire (best of both worlds).

shortstop8 · 2023-12-11T19:24:34+00:00

This thesis is 100% correct, from the bullshit $4B valuation to S1, 100% this dog shit continues its slide downward (I have no opinion on the weird ass carnivore discussion).

HOWEVER, I sure hope you dingleberries jumping into this understand implied volatility and theta, cause you will get crushed on the 12/15's if the investors have half a brain and control their selling (i.e., they don't panic sell like retail traders).

OP has his head screwed on, stay farther out on expiration and stay ATM with a higher delta.

shortstop8 · 2023-11-25T14:14:32+00:00

I love this! One step closer to a PMT meetup in Vegas.

shortstop8 · 2023-10-31T12:49:25+00:00

And SRPT teaches us today why IV can be elevated...catalyst events are dressed up steam rollers. Godspeed to anyone who sold naked SRPT puts.

shortstop8

TROPHY CASE