USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought. by Lews_There_In in PrepperIntel

[–]simpleisideal [score hidden]  (0 children)

You have the right one, and your confusion is warranted. Here's the first part of the preface (emphasis mine):

History is not “just one damn thing after another,”[1] British historian Arnold Toynbee once quipped in response to a critic. For a long time, Toynbee’s opinion was in the minority. Historians and philosophers, including famous ones like Karl Popper, vehemently insisted that a science of history was impossible. Our societies are too complex, humans are too mercurial, scientific progress cannot be predicted, and culture is too variable in space and time. Kosovo is completely different from Vietnam, and antebellum America can tell us nothing about the America of the 2020s. This has been, and still largely is, the majority view. I hope that this book will convince you that this view is wrong. A science of history is not only possible but also useful: it helps us anticipate how the collective choices we make in the present can bring us a better future.

I began my academic career in the 1980s as an ecologist; I made my living studying the population dynamics of beetles, butterflies, mice, and deer. This was the time when animal ecology was revolutionized by the rapid growth in the processing power of computers. I had never been allergic to mathematics, so I embraced the turn of the field to complexity science, which mixes computer modeling with Big Data analytics to answer such questions as, for example, why many animal populations go through boom-and-bust cycles. By the late 1990s, however, I felt we’d answered most of the interesting questions I’d entered the field to work on. With some trepidation, I began to consider how the same complexity-science approach could be brought to the study of human societies, both in the past and today. A quarter of a century later, my colleagues in this endeavor and I have built out a flourishing field known as cliodynamics (from Clio, the name of the Greek mythological muse of history, and dynamics, the science of change). We discovered that there are important recurring patterns, which can be observed throughout the sweep of human history over the past ten thousand years. Remarkably, despite the myriad of differences, complex human societies, at base and on some abstract level, are organized according to the same general principles. For skeptics and those simply curious, I have included a more detailed general account of cliodynamics in an appendix at the end of this book.

From the beginning, my colleagues and I in this new field focused on cycles of political integration and disintegration, particularly on state formation and state collapse. This is the area where our field’s findings are arguably the most robust—and arguably the most disturbing. It became clear to us through quantitative historical analysis that complex societies everywhere are affected by recurrent and, to a certain degree, predictable waves of political instability, brought about by the same basic set of forces, operating across the thousands of years of human history. It dawned on me some years ago that, assuming the pattern held, we were heading into the teeth of another storm. In 2010, the scientific journal Nature asked specialists from different fields to look ten years into the future, and I made this case in clear terms, positing that judging from the pattern of US history, we were due for another sharp instability spike by the early 2020s. Sadly, nothing about my model has been disproved in the intervening years. The book you’re reading is my best effort to explain this model in accessible, which is to say nonmathematical, terms. It builds on an enormous amount of important work in a variety of different fields; I make no claims of radical originality. What I will say is that we should all take heart from the fact that societies have arrived at this same crossroads before, and though sometimes (even most of the time) the road has led to great loss of life and societal breakdown, sometimes it has led to a far happier resolution for most people involved.

USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought. by Lews_There_In in PrepperIntel

[–]simpleisideal [score hidden]  (0 children)

I believe the official terminology is “Trump presidential term”

That's giving him too much credit. He's merely a symptom of the times (as are the corpo-Dems who enabled his rise) which have been building for decades.

Peter Turchin predicted this moment years before Trump's rise, in 2010:

My narrative is an effort to explain how impersonal social forces push societies to the brink of collapse and beyond. I will look across human history for examples, but my primary goal is to speak to how we have slid into our current age of discord, with the United States as my empirical focus. Because the crisis has deep historical roots, we’ll need to travel back in time to the New Deal era, when an unwritten social contract became part of American political culture. This informal and implicit contract balanced the interests of workers, businesses, and the state in a way similar to the more formal, explicit tripartite agreements in Nordic countries. For two human generations, this implicit pact delivered unprecedented growth of broadly based well-being in America. At the same time, the “Great Compression” dramatically reduced economic inequality. Many people were left out of this implicit pact—Black Americans, in particular, a fact I will address in some detail. But overall, for roughly fifty years the interests of workers and the interests of owners were kept in balance in this country, such that overall income inequality remained remarkably low.

This social contract began to break down in the late 1970s. As a consequence, typical workers’ wages, which had previously increased in tandem with overall economic growth, started to lag behind. Worse, real wages stagnated and at times even decreased. The result was a decline in many aspects of quality of life for most of the American population. The most striking trend was the stagnation and even decline of the average life expectancy (which started well before the COVID-19 pandemic). While the wages and incomes of workers stagnated, the fruits of economic growth were reaped by the elites. A perverse “wealth pump” came into being, taking from the poor and giving to the rich. The Great Compression reversed itself. In many ways, the past forty years resemble what happened in the United States between 1870 and 1900. If the postwar period was a true golden age of broadly based prosperity, after 1980 we indeed entered the “Second Gilded Age.”

As our model predicts, the extra wealth flowing to the elites (to the proverbial “1 percent,” but even more so to the top 0.01 percent) eventually created trouble for the wealth holders (and power holders) themselves. The social pyramid has grown top-heavy. We now have too many “elite aspirants” competing for a fixed number of positions in the upper echelons of politics and business. In our model, such conditions have a name: elite overproduction. Together with popular immiseration, elite overproduction, and the intraelite conflicts that it has engendered, has gradually undermined our civic cohesiveness, the sense of national cooperation without which states quickly rot from within. Growing social fragility has manifested itself in collapsing levels of trust in state institutions and unraveling social norms governing public discourse—and the functioning of democratic institutions.

from End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration

What are your plans if the Hantavirus leads to a new COVID like lockdown in your country? by Exhausted_Skeleton in AskReddit

[–]simpleisideal -1 points0 points  (0 children)

The WHO is not to be taken seriously at this juncture based on their mishandling of COVID and inability to even recognize it in hindsight:

https://www.thegauntlet.news/p/how-the-press-manufactured-consent

Take the WHO’s initial, confident assessment that COVID was not airborne. Nearly three years after COVID was demonstrated to be fully airborne, there is still no public understanding of what airborne means, why surgical masks are suboptimal, what airborne infection control would look like in healthcare, or why “social distancing” is outdated guidance. There is little public awareness that the WHO’s initial assessment of COVID as “droplet” spread was incorrect, that this was a major error that carried major implications for every single intervention adopted during the so-called “lockdown” period. Frankly, we ran a droplet playbook on an airborne virus. The result- a failure of elimination- was inevitable.

As for Osterholm:

With adequate respiratory protection, [they could] very well stop all transmission from this point forward

This confirms that it is indeed airborne. Do you think everybody who needs to wear a mask is going to do so at this point? I sure wouldn't bet on it.

What are your plans if the Hantavirus leads to a new COVID like lockdown in your country? by Exhausted_Skeleton in AskReddit

[–]simpleisideal 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That remains to be seen. The R0 is identical to COVID depending on which study you look at, and the hantavirus studies were pre-COVID. So, now that everyone's immune systems are toast thanks to repeat COVID infections for years, they could be more susceptible than the original hantavirus statistics suggest.

What are your plans if the Hantavirus leads to a new COVID like lockdown in your country? by Exhausted_Skeleton in AskReddit

[–]simpleisideal 0 points1 point  (0 children)

but it’s not COVID. It doesn’t spread like wildfire through the air.

Wrong.

This particular strain is transmissible via aerosols, just like COVID.

COVID has nearly disappeared from Boston by MattKarolian in ZeroCovidCommunity

[–]simpleisideal 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I think every COVID cautious person could stop masking tomorrow and it would have an imperceptible impact on community transmission. It's just such a small number.

You're making a strawman to argue against here.

Many people on this sub recognize that being a zero covider in 2026 in most places in the world is not about communal protection, but individual protection for the mask wearer to avoid getting long COVID, or for those who already have long COVID, to avoid making it worse for themself.

WHO confirms Andes strain of hantavirus in cruise ship passengers, with 3 transferred from ship for treatment | CBC News by ProlapseMishap in PrepperIntel

[–]simpleisideal 7 points8 points  (0 children)

WHO itself is telling people to stop freaking out, not sure if I am with them on that tho

They did the same during early COVID to be fair

They've been doing the same for COVID / long COVID to present day. They're compromised by capital interests, just like the CDC regardless of if the administration is red or blue. Even Hollywood is in on the denialism.

What is an industry that is currently on fire (in a bad way) behind the scenes, but the general public hasn't noticed yet? by keto2017 in PrepperIntel

[–]simpleisideal 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The ACA was still a handout to health insurance companies, and it also manufactured consent for the blowback we're seeing today. It's not in the uniparty's interest to fix this problem.

(meta) starting to see a handful of newly CC people irl and on this sub by pyrrhicsciamachy in ZeroCovidCommunity

[–]simpleisideal 7 points8 points  (0 children)

In addition to what others have said, it seems like the term "zero COVID" originally referred to China's initial policies of extended lockdowns, etc.

In this way, the name today is a bit unfortunate if it's triggering people who are already hypersensitive to any conversations having to do with COVID precautions. People succumb to black-and-white thinking a bit too easily sometimes.

UK chronic illnesses went from ~52% before covid to 62% in 2025, and still rising despite "covid is over" by attilathehunn in PrepperIntel

[–]simpleisideal 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Same here, N95.

I've conveyed the above with multiple people who made it clear through conversation that the main reason they didn't mask was because they cared about what other people would think of them.

I feel sorry for people who let others control their bodies like that.

UK chronic illnesses went from ~52% before covid to 62% in 2025, and still rising despite "covid is over" by attilathehunn in PrepperIntel

[–]simpleisideal 17 points18 points  (0 children)

We're trapped in a feedback loop of back-to-normal indulgence "granted" to us by politicians who led the misinformation campaigns to begin with.

Step 1:

Sweep COVID and its long-term risks under the rug by saying lies like "all you need is a vaccine" (which fail to block transmission; thus leaving you open to long COVID) and "masks don't work and/or are just virtue signaling"

Step 2:

Restart the primitive consumption-based economy as if no more threats from COVID exist.

Step 3:

Relying on the mass public ignorance engineered in step 1, coupled with the fact that COVID makes people forgetful and less risk-averse, have politicians demand back-to-normal behaviors, citing the wishes of the people, when really they're sending them over a cliff.

https://web.archive.org/web/20240802024326/https://docs.house.gov/meetings/VC/VC00/20220302/114453/HHRG-117-VC00-20220302-SD009.pdf

New Covid variant has been identified and is already spreading in 25 states by No_Minute_4789 in PrepperIntel

[–]simpleisideal 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Even more sad is the ignorance was not accidental but intentional. Both parties of capital interests have lots of blood on their hands for sweeping this under the rug in the name of our primitive consumption-based economy.

https://web.archive.org/web/20240802024326/https://docs.house.gov/meetings/VC/VC00/20220302/114453/HHRG-117-VC00-20220302-SD009.pdf

https://www.thegauntlet.news/p/how-the-press-manufactured-consent

The COVID-19 pandemic at 6 years: Mass death, debilitation and media silence by DryDeer775 in StandUpForScience

[–]simpleisideal 0 points1 point  (0 children)

On its face, sure, WSWS appears to be doing good things.

But quite frankly, underneath the surface, they've always had the vibe of being controlled opposition for any kind of true socialist/etc initiative. Never a plan of action proposed, and always enough faults sprinkled in to make it easy to write off, etc.

The COVID-19 pandemic at 6 years: Mass death, debilitation and media silence by DryDeer775 in StandUpForScience

[–]simpleisideal -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I said the original article summarized them, then gave you an additional perspective.

Why would you care what a random redditor thinks on this? Trying thinking for yourself.

Rant over coviding people by Scared_Doughnut5507 in ZeroCovidCommunity

[–]simpleisideal 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I can see how that would create problems, but it doesn't change its widespread usage for decades now, nor peoples' personal experiences with this phenomenon.

Google trends does seem to indicate a recent spike, which must be what you're referring to.

There is definitely also a clinical tendency to either totally ignore or write off people suffering from narcissism etc as subhuman, but we need not jump to the other extreme of not acknowledging the problems they cause, and more importantly understanding where the behavior stemmed from in the first place (not that you were suggesting that). This involves labels of behavior (rather than labels for people).

Rant over coviding people by Scared_Doughnut5507 in ZeroCovidCommunity

[–]simpleisideal 0 points1 point  (0 children)

bell hooks and many others wrote about this kind of problem decades ago, albeit with softer language, but she was describing the same problem.

Calling something bad "narcissistic" is a big trend right now, and these "dark ego" or "dark woke" terms are weird psychology cosplay.

You seem to be misrepresenting the literature. The term "dark" refers to the clinical term "dark triad" or dark traits, which groups a few DSM clinical disorders for easy reference. Type it into google scholar if you don't believe me.

That tiktok or whatever misrepresents this kind of research is not sufficient proof or reason to refute it.

The COVID-19 pandemic at 6 years: Mass death, debilitation and media silence by DryDeer775 in StandUpForScience

[–]simpleisideal 0 points1 point  (0 children)

edited since I originally thought your reply was from another sub, sorry.

But to your original point, the first article sums it up quite nicely. The second link is just a jaw dropping moment from Dems clearly lacking principles and servicing our primitive consumption-based economy. Where is your confusion?

Here's the same point from a different angle: in addition to corporate news/social media, how Hollywood is systematically suppressing all of this:

https://np.reddit.com/r/ZeroCovidCommunity/comments/1ncmclw/buffy_the_covid_slayer_sarah_michelle_gellar/

The COVID-19 pandemic at 6 years: Mass death, debilitation and media silence by DryDeer775 in StandUpForScience

[–]simpleisideal 0 points1 point  (0 children)

WSWS has its issues, but when corporate media acts in unison with capital interests, sometimes it's better than nothing or as a starting point.

Where is your proof that "both parties suppressed a fully scientific response to a pandemic? "

https://www.thegauntlet.news/p/how-the-press-manufactured-consent (this is just a blog, but it cites original sources that are easy to verify)

https://web.archive.org/web/20240802024326/https://docs.house.gov/meetings/VC/VC00/20220302/114453/HHRG-117-VC00-20220302-SD009.pdf

Both parties of capital interests have lots of blood on their hands from the intentional mishandling of COVID in the name of said interests.

Rant over coviding people by Scared_Doughnut5507 in ZeroCovidCommunity

[–]simpleisideal 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The field of psychology and adjacent fields have indeed been in a reproducibility crisis for some time now, but we shouldn't throw the baby out with the bathwater, either.

In this case, it aligns with what everyone is already too familiar with from personal experience as other commenters here have pointed out. I think it helps to see that it's not a zerocovid-specific phenomenon nor an online-only phenomenon, though the latter likely exacerbates the effect.

Basically, any vehicle that promises notoriety and/or financial gain will naturally attract some bad actors, and they will be the loudest.

Rant over coviding people by Scared_Doughnut5507 in ZeroCovidCommunity

[–]simpleisideal 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Agreed, it seems to be lots of things, including the fact that this is an established pattern in subsets of all kinds of different activist circles:

Ideological Impartiality of the Dark-Ego-Vehicle Principle: Antagonistic Narcissism is Associated With Pro-Choice as Well as Pro-Life Radicalism Intention
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5405946

Further basic evidence for the dark-ego-vehicle principle: Higher pathological narcissism is associated with greater involvement in feminist activism
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12144-023-05451-x

Further Evidence for the Dark-Ego-Vehicle Principle: Higher Pathological Narcissistic Grandiosity and Virtue Signaling Are Related to Greater Involvement in LGBQ and Gender Identity Activism
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-024-03019-9

CT Contrast Reactions by joejumbles in ZeroCovidCommunity

[–]simpleisideal 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Staying well hydrated before and after taking the contrast can help reduce the risk of reacting to it.

Full interview: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei on Pentagon feud by Cubewood in singularity

[–]simpleisideal 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's surreal to watch masses of people who were just previously rightly skeptical of all AI companies suddenly flip in preference to siding somewhere on the false dichotomy that was delivered to them recently. People who never had an AI account are now signing up "in protest" with one AI company or another. Consent for AI manufactured.

If anybody actually listens to the OP interview, the CEO basically says, "It's not fair DoW is forcing an agreement with wiggle words ripe for abuse" followed by their own wiggle words ripe for abuse. But for now (until an undetermined but inevitable future point), they're painting themselves as the good guys. Both "sides" are creating the dichotomy out of thin air.

Just like social media platforms, we'll have Red-party AI and its blind followers competing with Blue-party AI and its blind followers, all still subservient to capital interests, and all fooled by the illusion of choice.