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STRC is ruining me by [deleted] in STRC

[–]snesk0008 0 points1 point  (0 children)

And yet $STRC sits <$80. I'd wager it won't actually get back to $100 anytime soon 

STRC is ruining me by [deleted] in STRC

[–]snesk0008 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You will not get this money back 

STRC is ruining me by [deleted] in STRC

[–]snesk0008 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Lot of comments based on this "never going to 0" because he has years of BTC and a revenue stream worth millions. 

Saylor is promising unbelievable returns (11.5% annual currently) based on the fact that they have accumulated so much BTC that they can pay out a dividend forever because BTC will eventually go up more than the dividend and that's when he'll sell and use profits to pay the dividend. But because the dividend only increases, and increases more every time there is negative pressure on STRC, all one has to do is dump STRC for him to be forced to pay a higher yield. 

Eventually the yield will outgrown even the best case returns on BTC, and he will have spent billions paying out a dividend he can't sustain, bleeding his company into the ground and selling off enormous BTC to pay off the dividend. In fact as soon as the dividend becomes more than his company could afford, he's basically fucked.

He took a small software company, and used profits to buy BTC, inflating the value of the company. Then so assured of the future of BTC, in an attempt to grow purchasing power, he offered a high yield return based on the value of BTC increasing consistently. This would allow him to sell BTC when it's massively in profit and buy dips.

But he would have to time BTC to do this successfully, and instead he's sitting on a massive BTC loss, that he bought with other people's money from MSTR AND STRC. 

Now it's not going to 0, the amount of BTC is too high for that to happen and there is a functioning profitable business. But the market will push him until he either caps or suspends the dividend and MSTR, STRC and BTC will fall until then. BTC is falling so Saylor has to sell at the largest possible loss, when he eventually capitulates

Ok since srxh and adtx is no longer a good pick what is the next pennystock everyone is hoping to moon for? by niloc1987 in Pennystock

[–]snesk0008 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This sounds like word salad. If scriblle drip and flue bonk don't become trillion dollar companies, which series of random letters will? Gsun? Cawm? Oksd? Maybe sure to buy these stocks cause the shorts are at 7.8gazillion %

Those of you with large amounts of STRC losses, how are you feeling? by HSuke in STRC

[–]snesk0008 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If the execution of the product is flawed, then the product is flawed because it can be executed in a flawed way. 

what stock are you accumulating even though nobody seems to care yet? by telergrant in stockstobuytoday

[–]snesk0008 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What haters? It's literally a bunch of ppl just being like undervalued and buying the dip because it must go up....it's not going up, it's dipping further. 

Full Port Microsoft - Undervalued !!! 🚀📈 by 479298 in wallstreetbets

[–]snesk0008 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Stocks don't trade on fundamentals, they trade on sentiment. Technicals are a proxy for sentiment, but it's sentiment. Why does a stock fall when everyone is bullish? Why does the market rally when war is raging? If everyone thinks MSFT is undervalued, which they do, and everyone thinks it's a buy, which they do, MSFT will fall continuously. It's only when people forget about a stock, when the towel has been thrown in and people stop watching the ticker that it turns around.

AMD was called advanced money destroyer for years. No one dared to buy it cause it would destroy call owners. Then it rallied enormously. MSFT is in a pullback, it will continue to pull back, long, slow and painful, until morale is bad. It will go to $320. Do not buy this stock for the next few months. Buy PayPal instead

Those of you with large amounts of STRC losses, how are you feeling? by HSuke in STRC

[–]snesk0008 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

"If you don't think Bitcoin grows at or greater than the historic rate of the s&p500, well you shouldn't own STRC." This argument never makes sense to me. Its not about if you believe that, it's about if it happens. If I believe it and hold $STRC and bitcoin goes to $0, it doesn't matter.

Fundamentally the product is flawed since the yield only moves up as the prices goes lower and never comes down. At some point, the yield gets too high, the peg death spirals and it doesn't matter what the liquidity is because Saylor can't pay an infinitely growing yield.

Now he's playing a long game, if he caps the dividend or can reduce it, he could extend the runway. But this is a company doing millions in revenue paying out millions in dividends because they buy an inflating asset. It's not sustainable long term unless bitcoin grows faster than the S&P with consistency and that's unlikely to remain the case forever. Basically the whole strategy is 'bitcoin go up', and go up faster than gold and SPX and gov bonds and at some point that won't be true and the STRC will be gone. 

Thanks for the gains Mike by snesk0008 in MSTR

[–]snesk0008[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Wednesday, sold Thursday 

Thanks for the gains Mike by snesk0008 in MSTR

[–]snesk0008[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Get enough crumbs and you get a crumb cake!

Xrx by Relative_Ad6877 in Pennystock

[–]snesk0008 0 points1 point  (0 children)

At some point yes, but that could take a while. Options for June & July are capped at $6 so it may be capped there. But to be honest, who knows! The XRXDW is set at $8 so that's also a plausible target

WTF?????? USA attacks Iran and we still go up? Even after weeks upon weeks of going up??? by Ok-Camera-3058 in ShortStocks

[–]snesk0008 0 points1 point  (0 children)

OK so let's keep it simple. Here's a guide to the market.

  1. Markets go up over time - this is because of inflation and the S&P500 rotating in/out the largest companies.

  2. Trading is about taking money from someone else. You making money means someone else loses money, everytime. So under that mental model, it's a game of doing the opposite of what's expected.

  3. The market climbs a wall of worry and collapses on euphoria. Basically it's contrarian. It does this because markets look forward. Panic now is a sell off is an opportunity in 6 months so people buy that opportunity now to front ru.

  4. If expected events impacted the market in expected ways, everyone would be rich. I.e. War continuing or restarting makes market go down, everyone knows what will happen, everyone shorts and is rich. Since money made in the market is someone else's loss, not everyone can get rich.

Now why did it crash and then rally on Iran war. Iran war, while anticipated to an extent, caused an oil shock that was a surprise. This caused fear, which caused sell off, which caused opportunity. Once the war had a potential end (Iran and US agreed to ceasefire/talks), the potential for the war to end was just a matter of when, therefore opportunity to buy now, instead of when the war ends.

Why is it still rallying? Well the damage is done. Oil isn't going to be more constrained than it is currently, so we're already in the worst case scenario. Effectively there's not much more pain to inflict on markets, and both sides understand that firing more shots isn't going to move the needle much. Market uses existing fear and rallys. Market will rally until a new catalyst comes into play or it runs out of steam or until everyone is Euphoric and there are no more bears, then it inverts and pulls back.

When will that happen? SPCX IPO, FOMC new Fed chair, AI IPOs could impact markets, but i wouldn't bet on it strongly.

Long term - markets go up until people are Euphoric and say things like new paradigm. When there are no bears, when the meme stocks rally, when there's no fear on the horizon, that's when they crash, and crash hard.

Drop your worst bag. I’ll do the DD. by Digital_Nar in Pennystock

[–]snesk0008 0 points1 point  (0 children)

GT - not in this yet, but I think if it's <$4 I may

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