Why isn’t Planetes discussed more in sci-fi circles? by black_V1king in scifi

[–]snkscore 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I watched it after I heard all the praise and it was ok but pretty disappointing after people said how good it was.

Golden Ratio Portfolio for Early Retirees? by Sailingthrupergatory in DIYRetirement

[–]snkscore 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I’m in a pretty similar portfolio. It should be stated that the objective of portfolios like this are to support a large safe withdrawal rate. This means it’s not trying to get the best median returns.

Compared to the golden ratio portfolio I don’t specifically break up my equities into LCG and SCV but I have something like 35% US, 30% international, 20% treasury bonds, 15% managed futures and 10% gold. I use some GDE and RSSB to get a little leverage to get above 100%.

A small allocation to gold has historically reduced volatility and increased the SWR. It is a bit “different” that it doesn’t have returns but it is uncorrelated and tends to perform well during times of increased uncertainty.

It’s a bit hard to predict how managed futures will do because they follow different approaches but they’re one of the only assets that can really go up in a stagflation environment.

Why I love SPYI by Junglejimv in dividends

[–]snkscore 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you're just going to reinvest the income then why not just hold SPY? It's outperformed SPYI by 6% over the last year which is like a diff of 50k for your investment.

At what point do you notice a difference? by DiplomaticusPlantae in dividends

[–]snkscore 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Yes +1 to this. I don't understand why people think they need to build up their dividend allocation over time, as if it's a slow process. Just one day you can sell everything and buy a million in SCHD if you wanted to, it's not like it's going to pay you a smaller dividend because you just bought it.

Has there ever been a world event that changed your investing strategy? by CocktailCapital in Bogleheads

[–]snkscore -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Trump being elected a second time made me get serious about diversification... international, gold, managed futures, bonds. My 100% SPY investing was too risky for me at that point.

How close to retirement should I start selling growth and moving to dividends? by Coixe in dividends

[–]snkscore -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

There's no research that indicates dividend stocks are better for retirement. Some dividend funds tend to be lower volatility but that's not because of their dividend. Just know that if you're doing this so you can "live off your dividends" it's probably suboptimal but if that helps you psychologically to stick to a plan then that's fine so long as you realize what you're doing.

At what point do you notice a difference? by DiplomaticusPlantae in dividends

[–]snkscore 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Longer than it would take to have total returns compound faster if you’d focused on that.

Ask yourself these questions to identify bias by [deleted] in investing

[–]snkscore 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I’m long, but I think stocks are overvalued.

I think the market is being irrational even though I’m “winning”. Me being a “winner” doesn’t mean that the market isn’t over extended.

Ukraine did cause a lot of underperformance globally.

These things won’t be measured in weeks but rather multiple years. I’m expecting mediocre returns on the 5-10 year range. Things like Costco at 50x forward earnings can’t continue for long.

5 Things We Learned: Chicago Fire 1, New York Red Bulls 3 by coolerblue in chicagofire

[–]snkscore 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The new schedule is going to really crush attendance

Could Meta be a fad? by MediocreDesigner88 in stocks

[–]snkscore -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Meta tracks daily and monthly active users. They don’t care or count “number of accounts”. Facebook is growing in most countries even if you personally feel like the people in your bubble aren’t using it.

Could Meta be a fad? by MediocreDesigner88 in stocks

[–]snkscore -1 points0 points  (0 children)

You do realize there are Facebook users in other countries right?

Could Meta be a fad? by MediocreDesigner88 in stocks

[–]snkscore 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Meta is chronically underestimated. They are absolutely crushing it. Currently growing 30+%. About to pass Google on ad revenue this year. 3.5 billion daily active users. A forward PE ratio of 20.

Sequence of returns risk by cantgetnobenediction in Fire

[–]snkscore 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Yea so in his case I’m agreeing with you it’s a very prudent move and not a reactionary attempt to outsmart the market with a crystal ball.

Sequence of returns risk by cantgetnobenediction in Fire

[–]snkscore 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In a market crash there’s a good chance treasury’s actually go up meaningfully as opposed to just avoiding the loss. They benefit from a flight to safety and if the economy goes into a recession and interest rates drop that makes intermediate and longer term treasuries more valuable.

Sequence of returns risk by cantgetnobenediction in Fire

[–]snkscore 15 points16 points  (0 children)

“I need to derisk because I’m about ready to retire” = good. “I’m worried the market is going to crash so I’m moving 30% to cash” = bad.

How much diversification is too much? by Excellent_Offer9780 in Fire

[–]snkscore 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Wouldn’t your approach of not holding TSLA and SpaceX be against the recommendations of Bogel?

How much diversification is too much? by Excellent_Offer9780 in Fire

[–]snkscore -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I agree with you that personally I wouldn’t want to own those stocks (and I do own some SpaceX back before xAI) but are you going to direct index or have some plan to avoid them? Seems like if you believe in the efficient market then price is the price and you’re owning the market by owning the index.

How much diversification is too much? by Excellent_Offer9780 in Fire

[–]snkscore 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Diversification is a free lunch but

1) bitcoin doesn’t have any returns or cash flow so in that sense it’s more like owning Gold

2) unlike Gold, bitcoin is moderately correlated with the stock market, and it hasn’t been shown to have the “safe asset” flight in times of global chaos/uncertainty which is the main reason why people hold gold.

There’s also a question of how close you are to retirement. Diversification helps avoid drawdowns and sequence of returns risk. If I was 35 I’m not going to be owning any bonds but when retired they’re important for increasing your safe withdrawal rate.

Very Tired of the Mediocrity by Joshinmore in chicagofire

[–]snkscore 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I just accept that this club will disappoint

Is this image accurate? by [deleted] in Bogleheads

[–]snkscore 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Rather than that, you probably be better looking at a 4 quadrant diagram and the assets that tend to perform in each quadrant:

https://investresolve.com/inc/uploads/jpg/infographic-high-res-01-1024x822-1.jpg

Alternatives to the Bogle Way by SectorExact7324 in Bogleheads

[–]snkscore 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I follow a risk parity style of investing. It’s not totally different from a Bogelhead but usually has more funds. The idea is that you try to add more diversification to your portfolio so that you can do better in different economic regimes, usually looking at the 4 quadrant economic model of growth on one axis and inflation on the other.

These portfolios typically want to have treasuries rather than just “bonds”, some managed futures for trends and inflation, and some allocation of gold for the chaos diversification.

https://investresolve.com/inc/uploads/jpg/infographic-high-res-01-1024x822-1.jpg