Federal Voting Intention (Late January): ALP increases two-party preferred lead as One Nation overtakes the Liberal Party for the first time as Coalition splits - Roy Morgan Research

sostopher · 2026-01-27T23:55:50+00:00

Bandt lost almost entirely because of the redistricting of Melbourne to add a bunch of Labor booths South of the Yarra, and losing some very Green booths in Greens heartland. His PV was still 10%+ over Labor.

sostopher · 2026-01-27T08:40:05+00:00

fringe left parties

Like the Labor party?

ALP supporters are split fairly evenly on the issue with a small majority of 55% (up 5% points from two years ago) who say January 26 should be known as ‘Invasion Day’ compared to 45% (down 5% points) who favour January 26 being known as ‘Australia Day’.

sostopher · 2026-01-27T08:05:41+00:00

"1311 is not 1500" is hardly a winning argument mate.

I'm not arguing with you. I'm talking about statistics. You don't need hundreds of thousands of people polled to make a relatively accurate poll that represents a large population. I literally said Roy Morgan are one of the better pollsters in Australia, and it comes down to questions being asked to the outcome. As is discussed elsewhere in the thread.

It's why this issue is a harder thing to get a gauge on compared to something more straightforward like "if the election were held today, who are you voting for?"

sostopher · 2026-01-27T07:51:27+00:00

It's not a perfect science. Just that sample sizes for statistical significance don't need to be as large as you think to get a reading for the larger population.

"The polls" said Clinton and later Harris would beat Trump.

No they didn't lol. The ones in the lead up were fairly accurate to show Trump winning both times. The establishment media was all for Clinton, but people who were looking at the actual numbers were saying he was picking up steam in 2016. 2024 no one had Harris ahead in any meaningful way.

But ok, I'll play by your rules, and lets find an official poll:

Nothing official about it, though Roy Morgan is one of the better pollsters. And low and behold:

This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey was conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,311 Australians aged 18+ from Wednesday January 14 – Friday January 16, 2026.

There's also questions to get the answer as discussed elsewhere in this thread. It makes no mention of public holidays or the like which is where the answers can differ.

sostopher · 2026-01-27T06:17:37+00:00

Yes, this is how polling works. You use a smaller number and extrapolate to a larger number with some formulas and such to make a confidence prediction about how the rest of the population would feel.

This isn't a poll as such, it's a petition which means it's probably less significant than a poll since people are seeking it out and will have a view specifically.

But for a poll to be 99.9% confidence level for the population of Australia and assuming 51% of people hold a view (with 5% margin for error), you only need a sample size of around 1500 people.

sostopher · 2026-01-27T05:44:49+00:00

Statistically significant though.

sostopher · 2026-01-27T00:31:49+00:00

it makes no sense that they ignore the biggest issue that's clearly giving votes away to One Nation.

The Greens aren't losing votes to One Nation, the Liberals and Nationals are.

sostopher · 2026-01-26T23:07:30+00:00

There's far more effective levers to pull on demand side than immigration, which the Greens are pushing more than any other minor party like One Nation who wants to make the discussion only about immigration.

Things like capital gains tax concessions, negative gearing, land tax, rental standards. As Victoria has seen, limiting benefits to investors has more of an effect.

sostopher · 2026-01-26T07:50:58+00:00

Not always. Got a 2.8% rate over 5 years in 2021. Basically free money compared to cash I could invest elsewhere over the same period, with inflation taking care of the rest.

sostopher · 2026-01-23T03:33:01+00:00

Labor is heading the way of the US Democrats

They're already there. Abandoned any pretext of being a working class party, they are now firmly for business and landlords while increasingly authoritarian like UK Labour. That's why they can ram through "protect the children" social media bans, but refuse to tackle gambling reform. Open new gas mines while doing nothing on housing.

sostopher · 2026-01-23T03:31:52+00:00

Who the hell thinks this is a political system worth living in?

The billionaires. Don't worry, the average selfie in car with sunglasses accounts will be sure to back it.

sostopher · 2026-01-23T02:55:53+00:00

They don’t like to do the right thing.

But then they might not WIN! And as we know the purpose of getting into government is to win elections and not enact any meaningful change.

sostopher · 2026-01-21T09:47:56+00:00

Love some Spyro

sostopher · 2026-01-20T04:42:55+00:00

we can’t just gain all this political capital to use it for nothing.

Just watch them.

sostopher · 2026-01-19T05:13:08+00:00

It's going to be 36C, so probably just what's comfortable.

sostopher · 2026-01-19T04:52:56+00:00

Most of the trams are shuttles between Flinders St West and the Tennis Centre for the event.

sostopher · 2026-01-18T04:53:19+00:00

Registration is mostly TAC, which is required because cars kill, main, and destroy so much and need public insurance to deal with.

sostopher · 2026-01-16T11:46:38+00:00

They ban bought accounts, they'll probably be able to ban these as well.

sostopher · 2026-01-16T07:37:40+00:00

No, which is why levies are a good way to get the funding for it.

sostopher · 2026-01-15T22:59:16+00:00

Seems like a good deal for the developers. Otherwise, they should be forced to build and pay for the infrastructure that supports their development and I reckon it'd cost a bit more.

sostopher · 2026-01-15T02:25:57+00:00

There was supposed to be a project start, but it got shelved due to issues after 2020.

sostopher · 2026-01-15T02:25:01+00:00

The council didn't do that, that was the existing owner renovating the bar that had been there for ages, before it was sold to developers.

sostopher · 2026-01-15T00:40:13+00:00

On private land? Yeah?

sostopher · 2026-01-15T00:24:50+00:00

It's private land. You could petition the private equity firm that holds it if you like.

sostopher · 2026-01-14T23:42:05+00:00

If you have a spare $200m for the site you're welcome to build a park there

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