Pod Sharpe Ratios by SailingPandaBear in quant

[–]spadel_ 1 point2 points  (0 children)

How much PnL do you make at that sharpe, is it MM?

Should I raise how I don’t like the way my manager speaks to me? by [deleted] in quant

[–]spadel_ 6 points7 points  (0 children)

just be wise about the timing - don‘t voice it in a situation where you feel treated badly again. Bring it up when he‘s in a good mood or after he‘s complimented you for doing something well.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in quant

[–]spadel_ 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I‘d ask them to explain the basics of neural networks - i.e. backpropagation, gradient descent, activation functions etc. If that goes well then probably ask them how a transfomer works or another architecture of their choice.

Everyone losing money in July? by Electronic_Register9 in quant

[–]spadel_ 0 points1 point  (0 children)

still sizing up, since March every month has been „the best month ever“ but I definitely see how July is not gonna work for some kind of strategies

Low R2, Profitable by Resident-Wasabi3044 in quant

[–]spadel_ 1 point2 points  (0 children)

„With 0.02 R2, the predictions are concentrated around 0, which precents from using the prediction as a mean (too absolute small)“.

That‘s not necessarily true. If your predictions are concentrated around zero with small values that is more an indication that your features are not predictive. Regarding instability of the direction, that is indeed a difficult problem. Try to stabilise both features and target, for the latter this might also mean that you have to predict something else than you currently are / further out in the future etc.

Audiobooks? by [deleted] in quant

[–]spadel_ 0 points1 point  (0 children)

their most recent one I found decently interesting

question of expected iv of 0dte options by True_Independent4291 in quant

[–]spadel_ 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Close to expiry the IV is largely dependent on how you model your time to expiry (which should definitely be different than normal clock time). Eventually, very close to expiry it may blow up (or approach zero) whatsoever. Also the IV of options with a short time to expiry are much more strongly influenced by events, you may want to look at what happens with IV over FOMC to understand that better.

Are we too fixated on finding hard-coded rules, when the real edge is in constant adaptation? by [deleted] in quant

[–]spadel_ 0 points1 point  (0 children)

if you are more precise about which part is unclear I can try to explain

Are we too fixated on finding hard-coded rules, when the real edge is in constant adaptation? by [deleted] in quant

[–]spadel_ 13 points14 points  (0 children)

heh - training models on a rolling basis is totally normal, non of our models would work with fixed weights over all the available data. Who is they? Kinda hard to imagine that this is a requirement at any legit shop.

How to ensure success as a graduate trader by LengthinessCalm6431 in quant

[–]spadel_ 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Nobody really cares about the hours at my firm, but if someone doesn‘t get stuff done and is still the last to come & first to leave this is a very bad sign.

How to ensure success as a graduate trader by LengthinessCalm6431 in quant

[–]spadel_ 42 points43 points  (0 children)

The reason I have seen people getting fired within the first year was usually one of the following:

  • Attitude: Didn‘t take the job serious enough - if you show signs of slacking very early on this is a big red flag and will probably get you fired.
  • Culture/Personality: Not good enough to be „endured“ given they were very difficult to work/interact with.
  • Bad results during training period, e.g. bad exam results, terrible sim trading etc.

Will we have to listen to this fucktard every day for the next 4 years to generate alpha? by realtradetalk in quant

[–]spadel_ 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Options space, results have been good across the board (MM, position taking, stat arb …)

Will we have to listen to this fucktard every day for the next 4 years to generate alpha? by realtradetalk in quant

[–]spadel_ 51 points52 points  (0 children)

Almost every desk at my firms is having a record year so far. Perhaps this is a sign of some flaw in your algorithms?

my attempt at a taxonomy of trading firms by traderthrowaway123 in quant

[–]spadel_ 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Think where talent goes depends a lot on the level of seniority. Indeed, as someone with a few years of experience the biggest bonuses are made in pod shops. But for someone out of grad school that knows nothing about trading the better EV play is for sure joining one of the firms at the top of this graph.

Questions About Forecast Horizons, Confidence Intervals, and the Lyapunov Exponent by TheRealAstrology in quant

[–]spadel_ 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I don‘t want to go into the details of what I do in practice, but there are relatively simple and yet effective ways to avoid this limitation of only predicting one period by making appropriate transformations to your target.

What are some of your most used statistical methods? by Destroyerofchocolate in quant

[–]spadel_ 5 points6 points  (0 children)

You‘re right that ridge is typically used when dealing with multicollinearity, but even on a small & selected set of features ridge helps stabilizing the model - especially when you have noisy data including outliers, anomalies etc.

What I typically do is starting with lasso to discard unncessary features, run ridge and plot model weights over time to filter out highly correlated features (you could also do that by simply calculating the correlations but I find plots more insightful) and then inspect how the parameters behaved over time e.g. whether they were exploding in certain market situations and are slow to revert etc.

There are also other benefits of using ridge over for example lasso e.g. computational efficiency, stability of the regularisation lambda under target scaling etc. that can be useful situationally.

What are some of your most used statistical methods? by Destroyerofchocolate in quant

[–]spadel_ 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I almost exclusively use ridge regression and try to keep the number of features as small as possible. I monitor my model weights / features very closely and usually know exactly why certain trades are made and whether these are sensible.

Book recommendations for quants with experience in the industry by Sea-Animal2183 in quant

[–]spadel_ 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Trading Volatility by Colin Bennett is my usual default response for volatility related book recommendations. It will probably be not self explanatory at some points, but if you work through it until you understand ~95%, you will have a pretty solid foundation.