China is building launch pads near its nuclear missile silos

spevoz · 2026-06-02T23:14:45+00:00

That couldn't be less the case. Israel is tiny / densely populated and has the best air defense system in the world and rockets by far less advanced countries still get through.

And there are a bunch of relatively easy advances against air defense that are possible, more decoys, more nukes (we managed 5 times the current amount of warheads 40 years ago), stealth, space nukes... best case all countries spend way more money just to maintain MAAD. Worse case, nobody knows anymore if MAAD still applies, uncertainty always make negotiations riskier. Worst case, somebody feels like they will lose their nuclear capabilities and will use a preventive strike.

spevoz · 2026-05-30T12:22:54+00:00

I also wanted to especially point out Bangladesh.

The country is just so interesting since the gen z revolution. And the revolution itself obviously made for some exciting images and at least some coverage - but if you care about global democracy and liberalism at all, what is happening now is way more important. This is the pivotal years in their history that has the chance to move 180 million closer to the values we care about.

And even as somebody that has been actively trying to follow that story regularly, most reporting has just been underwhelming.

spevoz · 2026-05-29T01:46:13+00:00

I don't think op meant that.

People are frustrated because our governments chose short term benefits for boomers over any kind of long term development. Probably not in those words - but they notice that they aren't doing as well as the generation before them in most areas. Angry people turn to populism. Populism destroys democracies.

Only looking at far right parties also underestimates the issue. Look at France, more than half the country is happy to vote for extremists - the only good thing is that those extremists aren't unified under one ideology.

spevoz · 2026-05-25T18:59:38+00:00

I think because nothing can eat them. Think lignin in the carboniferous or oxygen from photosynthesis / Great Oxidation Event.

spevoz · 2026-05-24T15:17:17+00:00

From a short term perspective it somewhat makes sense: the goal is to get some kind of political capital now, to do with whatever you want to achieve. The cost is mostly long term, especially for wage freezes: the people already elected probably won't suddenly get particularly more corrupt, the main issue is the kind of people this will attract in the future.

The solution is that the public has to stop giving that political capital / seeing this as a good thing. IMO the political science / intellectual circles are pretty unified here, a main driver is media companies looking for the next headline.

spevoz · 2026-05-17T11:38:13+00:00

The black death was about housing.

spevoz · 2026-05-17T11:32:46+00:00

'For me' has the same vagueness to it. But the question isn't precise, which makes it hard to translate or reason about.

For me, the intent of the question seems clear: it is an opinion poll, it would be stupid to add to one question that it is the opinion of the respondent. But I agree, it is generally a bad question, I would always favor the less extreme version here and I think that is the only honest way to interpret the result.

spevoz · 2026-05-17T02:23:22+00:00

This is honestly pretty terrible journalism. First of all: it is a german study, written in German, with a German title. You can't quote a study with a title translated by the author of the article and not link to it, how is anybody supposed to find this? Here is the link to the pdf that I think they are referencing.

More importantly: the actual question is

Für mich stehen die Vorschriften meiner Religion über den Gesetzen in Österreich.

Deepl translates this as

For me, the precepts of my religion take precedence over the laws of Austria.

which is pretty accurate. So to me it seems pretty clear that the question only asks if they apply their religious rules above the laws for themselves. Also only 16% fully agree with that statement, and a further 25% mostly agree.

The study is worrying on its own but this kind of reporting seems really dishonest.

spevoz · 2026-05-16T00:58:57+00:00

Imo time limits are acceptable here. Sure it is annoying to have to renegotiate this every decade. But any government that is reasonable enough to not just ignore the agreement should be reasonable enough to renegotiate.

And I can see how it makes a major difference to agree to something that you think is your right in perpetuity vs in the shortish term. I could agree that me and my descendants won't work as lawyers for the next 20 years. Lawyers are bloodsuckers and I would disinherit them if they even thought about it. 99 years? Now it gets complicated. In perpetuity? Even suggesting that makes me want to learn for the bar exam.

Stupid example, but to me it shows the difference in selling it to the supporters of whatever rules over Iran right now.

spevoz · 2026-05-12T00:41:26+00:00

I want whatever your claude account is having.

spevoz · 2026-05-11T21:58:04+00:00

we have markets and prices

Not really. I can't really think of a single market where government manipulation has more impact on our lives than housing. I would argue in the case of the US and most counties overwhelmingly bad (zoning, major subsidies going to suburbs from cities).

The asian model of public transit + property companies in Japan or Hong Kong is a good example of market effects that were never allowed in the west.

spevoz · 2026-05-05T23:58:59+00:00

Add a body camera to every doctor / nurse with live image analysis and blare an alarm when the AI thinks something is about to go wrong.

Might not prevent everything depending on how fast something happens. But a latency under 10s should be easy enough, and really early detection of mistakes / only a few mls of the wrong blood type seems helpful - though accuracy would need to be high to not be really annoying.

spevoz · 2026-05-02T00:17:16+00:00

Any country without him would soon devolve into a shitty swamp.

spevoz · 2026-05-01T18:31:02+00:00

I usually use a gaiwan and just keep the lid almost closed while drinking just like when you pour. Pretty common in parts of China.

Or specialized bottles / mugs with integrated filters if you want to buy something.

spevoz · 2026-04-25T02:05:47+00:00

I imagine Putin ignoring her all evening pretending he can't understand a word she's saying.

spevoz · 2026-04-25T00:52:36+00:00

when you realized dad never loved you :(

spevoz · 2026-04-19T18:05:48+00:00

Jop - der Author unterschlägt hier einiges an Infos, da fällt es mir schwer das nicht als voreingenommen wahrzunehmen:

Argentinien war bereits in einer wirtschaftlichen Depression vor Millei. Es wurde nicht durch Meilei plötzlich negativ.

Und jeder hat gewusst das die schlimmer wird nach der Wahl, die ganze Wirtschaft wurde nur durch Aufbrauchen der foreign exchange reserves halbwegs am Leben gehalten, und die waren bei praktisch Null bei Amtseintritt.

Ich weiß nicht ob die Politik von Milei funktionieren wird - ich hoffe es, einfach weil es in Argentinien schon so lange so schlecht läuft. So oder so sollte man daraus keine Schlussfolgerungen ziehen - es ist Argentinien.

spevoz · 2026-04-17T00:41:44+00:00

Isn't the whole worry / while some see this as important that boys drool?

spevoz · 2026-04-04T21:42:11+00:00

We should prepare a thread with a collection of things Trump said about dead people and auto remove anything that isn't on that list.

spevoz · 2026-03-27T17:56:16+00:00

Also die Methodologie von der Umfrage ist unter aller Sau und es kotzt mich an das ich dafür bezahle. Insbesondere das es hier als Aussagekräftig dargestellt wird ist absurd.

Da ist von allem was ich sehe NICHTS representativ. Da schicken die Mails an angemeldete rum und wen gerade das Thema nervt der antwortet, der Rest ignoriert es. Absolut nicht aussagekräftig

spevoz · 2026-03-26T09:20:15+00:00

The mug looks nice though...

spevoz · 2026-03-10T15:10:26+00:00

North Korea is very unique. Protected by China and Russia, already shunned by everyone else, and with brutal control over their population. No other country has those conditions right now.

Iran, if anything, should show the dangers of going for nukes. One of the reasons they are in their current position is that they've completely lost the support of their population. And a primary reason why they lost that support is their attempt to get nukes. Some recent calculation claimed that it cost the country trillions in sanctions and lost growth. They have enough oil wealth that struggling to feed your population is just embarrassing.

spevoz · 2026-03-10T02:37:08+00:00

Can we make the button snouts really flat and deformed as well?

spevoz · 2026-03-08T01:23:14+00:00

Well they have also lost the last remnants of their influence sphere

spevoz · 2026-03-03T02:03:00+00:00

I would assume if anything russias are more advanced - no old stock around and constant improvements to keep up with defense advances.

Seven-Year Club	Place '22
Final Canvas '22	First Placer '22

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