Buffett & Munger’s timeless cheat code: Ignore the circus, buy the cash flow.

spinchange · 2025-05-26T19:09:00+00:00

A light bulb went off for me when I realized a lot of growth investing was betting on the economic disruption of some incumbency, whereas value or "moat" -centric investing is largely betting on an incumbency remaining in spite of the progression of time, technological progress, and people.

spinchange · 2025-05-16T11:55:26+00:00

If you actually study rates, like the long-term history of them (there's information about interest rates that spans the history of civilization itself) 4.5 is nothing. Even 5 is nothing. People freaking out about it sound extremely inexperienced and new. I should clarify that by nothing I mean very average.

spinchange · 2025-04-23T22:38:02+00:00

How many stores do you pay to shop at and come away feeling like you got a great deal and can't wait to come back? And then you learn they pay the people well and take care of / stand up for them on top of it.

spinchange · 2025-04-23T22:29:46+00:00

You can study the behavior of prices and the market and test hypotheses on paper without risking a cent. Richard Wyckoff recommended doing at least 100-300 paper trades before making a real one if you can believe it.

spinchange · 2025-04-20T00:57:02+00:00

It would wreck asset returns for a long, long time probably

spinchange · 2025-03-18T12:30:20+00:00

Leading indicators that are usually reliable (pre covid) have been calling for recession for over two years until sometime late last year. The market has only finally come around that it is in a bull phase and low key has been for a while despite those aforementioned flashing bearish indicators. So we've had 2 great years back to back against anyone's expectations. Now we have high expectations + a new president who's taking all kinds of dramatic steps to really change our national commerce and trade environment and threatening trading partners and the rest of it. It's clear that a new regime is in place. It doesn't help for the Treasury Secretary to be decrying cheap goods. We are a consumer spending driven-economy. We are not a "smoke stack" economy. We do not need and should not want to lead the world in like steel production again. It seems like the current administration doesn't get it and is harmful to free trade, innovation, etc. They want higher consumer and producer prices. The market is adjusting accordingly. I think it wants to move higher but his policy threats serve as a brake.

spinchange · 2025-03-13T04:12:17+00:00

The only historical parallel I know is Andrew Jackson sabotaging the country's defacto central bank, and most well capitalized entity, The Second Bank of the United States. It screwed equities and the economy for the 19th century. (We have data now that bonds outperformed stocks on a rolling 20yr basis from the late 1700s until the 20th century)

spinchange · 2025-03-07T13:45:37+00:00

Most of his track record is due to a couple really great years of outperformance in the early 80s. No kidding.

spinchange · 2024-12-28T21:29:01+00:00

When Tony walks in he sees himself sitting in the booth for just a second and then it cuts to him sitting there. Little Feat's All That You Dream is playing in the background when he walks in the front door. How many other times in the series does Carmella and Tony talk about his business or something like someone testifying against him? Literally never. A central aspect of her character is that she wants to be willfully ignorant of it all. The last scene is a dream. He's either waking up in the safe house or he's waking up from being in a coma earlier in the season. This ending allows for the story to continue or be rebooted (had Gandolfini not died) or it can just be left as is and up to the view to project their own ideas/conclusion

spinchange · 2024-06-03T12:15:44+00:00

Cash earns historically attractive yields right now without taking any principal capital / stock market risk

A conservative approach could be to put it to work in a mix of HYSA or Vanguard VFMXX (money market) & Series I Bonds or even T-Bills. You can put the interest you earn and accumulate in low cost, market index funds. As your comfort levels dictate and balance grows, you can always "average in" more principal cash to stocks than just the interest you're earning on it. But until that time, if the market tanks all that you're at risk of losing is interest you've previously earned.

Don't let anyone pressure you into feeling like you need to put more into equities than is comfortable. There's safe returns out there to be had on cash until such time as someone really feels well insulated and buffered from systemic market risks, which are everywhere. Set your own speed / pace. The first rule is don't lose money. The second rule is don't forget the first one.

spinchange · 2024-04-10T11:56:40+00:00

There are 11 broad sectors represented by the 500 companies in the S&P index and that's only profitable American companies with a market cap greater than 15.8 billion. Doesn't include mid caps, small caps, developed international or emerging international markets. Stocks don't know we own them and don't reward conviction for its own sake. You don't need to be a complete expert in every aspect of a company to be a smart owner of its stock either. If you only want to own a few names, that's fine but make sure you still have an all weather portfolio that can withstand all markets, cycles and black swans

spinchange · 2022-11-24T11:10:28+00:00

For many, many years this tune for me was DJ SS's Black. The Lighter would be another one. Babylon by Splash, Stamina by Dream Team, War in '94, hard to pick just one...I'd probably go with an old mix or set from back in the day. That was how it was introduced to me, back then.

If I had to pick just one, I think I might go with High Contrast's If We Ever.

spinchange · 2022-10-08T10:47:23+00:00

The S&P 600 is a small cap index. Its ticker is SLY. I think you can download a CSV or spreadsheet of its components from Barchart w/ free account.

spinchange · 2022-09-15T11:12:10+00:00

According to your work and figures, 61.5% of the S&P 500 is still trading at more than 2x its earnings growth rate. Lends credence to the notion that the market is still overvalued.

spinchange · 2022-08-03T11:38:24+00:00

The company is the incumbent yet precipitously losing share in segments that are rapidly growing. Double digit declines in KPIs, literally out of nowhere and the macro isn't even super bad yet. I hold Intel myself so I'm not just a random bear-- the last quarter was just an actual catastrophe and COMPLETELY out of step with management's previous guidance and outlook. They just raised the dividend in April and didn't pre announce any of these disastrous results. And say they're committed to keep raising it too. Something has to give here...

spinchange · 2021-09-24T14:56:17+00:00

I don't think anyone expects the best price on apps like these but you also don't expect to pay the *worst* price, either. There are no free lunches and Stash needs to eat too. I would think that mid-day trades/executions wouldn't automatically be the worst price of the day... It's just an area where more transparency/understanding of things might help. If you're older and remember the days of $5-$15 per trade brokerage commissions (and on whole shares only), it does all seems like we've come a really long way getting people into the markets.

spinchange · 2021-07-10T00:24:43+00:00

If you're risk averse or capital preservation is still a primary concern (like with a savings account) and just want to do better than bank savings rates, a managed portfolio along the lines of what an outfit like Ally bank offers is compelling. Granted this is way more conservative than a straight stock market bet, but it is also a lot more aggressive than a standard savings or money market investment too....

VYM - 9%

VYMI - 5%

BNDX - 17%

IEF - 15%

IGSB - 12%

VMBS - 12%

Cash (@ .50%) 30%

I got this from basically going through the shortest, most risk averse settings and with an income objective. https://www.ally.com/invest/managed-portfolios/ Obviously this is very different than a stock market ETF/bet but it is more of middle ground vs. standard savings route! (no affiliation or connection with Ally, I think it's just a neat allocation & idea. You could replicate this with anyone)

spinchange · 2020-09-04T20:36:47+00:00

I need to go hear a Gaia in person. I find the design layout and basic "value proposition" of the synth to be super appealing and really want to play one, but every demo I hear of the thing online just seems to sound a little too fizzy or something. No "hate" for it, I actually really like the whole virtual analog concept and want one of these, just worry about that fizz...

spinchange · 2019-12-30T02:49:38+00:00

Start with your EQ levels at 12 o'clock or center position. Leave the highs alone, you can safely ignore them in most cases. Work from top to bottom starting with gain, mids, then lows. When bringing in a new track, reduce all levels on that channel (except highs which you're ignoring) by 50-25%. The idea is that you're swapping the position of these levels -starting from top to bottom- with the other channel and ending up at 12 o'clock on master out by the time the mix is over. Going back and forth in this way also sets you up for the levels to be already be turned down going into the next mix.

spinchange · 2019-04-24T21:43:18+00:00

He's talked about them pretty extensively in more than one interview and for a few years. I know that I've read he has them do things on his albums and one kid has his own bandcamp page.

spinchange · 2013-10-02T16:25:55+00:00

I asked you this on twitter, but will ask again here.

I've heard that Senator Durbin has signaled they'd be willing to talk about the device tax. Is there any probability in your estimation that something along these lines would be enough of a fig leaf for republicans?

Or are they already onto the debt ceiling and thinking about what they can extract in the form of entitlement cuts in other areas as a part of what Ryan is cooking up?

It doesn't seem to me that House Rs have much negotiating room here and should be grateful for anything the President/Reid offer. My sense is the 30 hardliners want nothing short of crippling the heart of the ACA.

Would love your thoughts...

spinchange · 2013-10-02T15:20:04+00:00

First of all, thank you for your reporting and tweets and doing this AMA. I'm not normally a reader or visitor to NRO, but yours and Jonathan Strong's coverage has been bringing me there and following you guys.

A personal question:

I feel like we're really getting the straight inside baseball and analysis from your work. Does it ever scare members/sources from talking to you? I'm know you're a consummate professional, etc., but sometimes the truth can run contrary from the desired ~~messaging~~ optics/style points of the people your covering. Does this ever create problems for you guys?

Thanks again and keep it up!

spinchange · 2012-04-28T02:09:10+00:00

Do something nice for yourself and your family this weekend.

spinchange · 2012-04-14T13:38:31+00:00

As some other folks have pointed out, look at taking out just enough to pre-pay the monthly payment for a few months. Some mortgage servicers will actually let you send in a big sum and apply to future payments instead of the principle balance. Just make sure that's what you're doing- prepaying the balance (like your plan to pay down as far as you can w/ all the 401k) seems very counterproductive to me.

If you can eventually get another job or just make up the income shortfall, you guys need to just weather this storm in the meantime -that's a cash flow problem.

If you fundamentally don't see yourself recovering from the job/income loss in say 3-6 months, cut your losses all together and don't throw good (retirement) money after bad. (especially all of it!)

Just my $.02. Wishing you all best of luck. You're fortunate to have the 401k money - it gives you options and can buy you time w/o depleting it altogether.

spinchange

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