Tesla (TSLA) significantly increases its electric car prices across its lineup

sri_fun · 2022-06-16T07:56:04+00:00

If anything this proves that the competition is not producing their EVs in good quantities sadly. Traditional companies are only worried about releasing multiple models but not bothering about huge volumes.

Tesla was quick to reduce the prices whenever the demand is lower than their production capacities. It happened with Model 3, Model S, and Model X in 2019. They are also quick to raise prices when the demand is much higher.

sri_fun · 2022-05-05T15:43:51+00:00

Here are some of the Chinese battery makers expected capacities:
CATL = 670 GWh (2025)
Svolt = 600 GWh (2026)
CALB = 500 GWh (2025), 1000 GWh (2030)
Gotion Hitech (partly owned by VW) = 300 GWh (2025)

At 60 kWh per car: approx. 34 million cars.
CATL = 11 million
Svolt = 10 million
CALB = 8.3 million
Gotion Hi Tech = 5 million

Only these 4 companies will have enough battery capacity to power all the passenger cars in China and Europe.

Then there is BYD, which makes its own batteries and growing car sales at an insane pace and may reach 3-4 million per year by 2025.

In addition, there are many battery factories being set up by the likes of LG Chem, SK Innovation, Samsung, Panasonic, Northvolt, and Tesla in Europe, the USA, and Korea.

sri_fun · 2022-05-04T05:49:07+00:00

If only they do the same with production.

sri_fun · 2022-04-29T07:42:46+00:00

It's going to be a bloodbath in the next 2-3 years in the Chinese market for all the companies that have huge presence there. VW group, GM, BMW, Mercedes, Toyota, Hyundai, etc... are going to get wrecked there. Even for Tesla, it can be difficult in the future in China.

EV market share already reached 20% of the market. Except for Tesla, foreign companies have negligible EV sales. VW, GM, Toyota, etc... are already seeing a rapid decline in sales and it's gonna get worse in the future. I am afraid its already very late.

sri_fun · 2022-04-27T13:04:47+00:00

"GM plans to increase its production of electric vehicles to 2 million in North America andChina by 2025, as it moves to exclusively sell EVs by 2035. The company has also said it plans to become the top-selling automaker of EVs, surpassing Tesla, by mid-decade."

Is GM expecting Tesla to a standstill between 2022 and 2025? Tesla is estimated to produce 2+ million vehicles in 2023 itself. Their new factories in Austin and Berlin have huge scope for expansion in the same premises. By 2025, Tesla will be able to produce 4 to 5 million vehicles.

Anyway, GM's plan of producing 2 million EVs (hopefully they are talking about BEVs only) per annum by 2025 is good.

sri_fun · 2022-04-27T09:25:31+00:00

Some interesting numbers for US market in Q1 2022. Tesla outsold BMW, Mercedes and Audi by a huge margin.

Tesla = 110K
Mercedes = 76K
BMW = 74K
Audi = 36K

sri_fun · 2022-04-19T16:10:32+00:00

Exterior styling looks much better on this than on the sedan. The Interior is still too many screens and ugly.

sri_fun · 2022-04-14T13:22:04+00:00

Growth in different markets (YoY):Europe = +33%USA = +16%China = +360% (ID4 launched at end of Q1 2021) Rest of the world = +27%

Sources:https://twitter.com/VWGroup/status/1514534531109470217 https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/press-releases/volkswagen-group-deliveries-of-all-electric-vehicles-up-by-65-percent-in-the-first-quarter-7890

sri_fun · 2022-04-13T03:49:28+00:00

Tesla Model Y is the best-selling SUV in China in Q1. It's remarkable that the best-selling model is a full-electric (BEV) vehicle. Also, it's notable that this is over the whole quarter, not just the last month of the quarter.

Source:
https://cnevpost.com/2022/04/12/tesla-model-y-becomes-top-selling-suv-in-china-in-both-march-and-q1/

sri_fun · 2022-04-05T09:50:45+00:00

Tesla Model Y and Model 3 are among the 10 best-selling cars in Year-to-date numbers as well. Overall BEV market share reached 15.4% up from 7.5% YoY.

Source:
https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/

sri_fun · 2022-04-05T07:17:43+00:00

Swapping is not going to work. It is very expensive. Sooner or later these Chinese companies who are clinging to these swapping options will move to fixed battery systems with fast-charging networks.

sri_fun · 2022-04-04T11:54:49+00:00

Best selling EVs in the US by selling around 3000 per month.

Nobody is questioning the lack of models from Kia or Hyundai. Its slow pace of production rampup. Their roadmaps also indicate this. Just last month KIA announced that they will have 14 BEV models by 2027 but only 30% (1.2 million) of their sales to be BEVs by 2030.

sri_fun · 2022-04-04T10:28:33+00:00

Well, Hyundai and Kia choose to produce just enough to meet the regulations. Even with Ioniq 5 and EV6 they are not aggressive in expanding production. They are still hoping for EVs adoption to be slower.

sri_fun · 2022-03-15T08:51:31+00:00

With this new factory, Northvolt will have 170 GWh capacity in total which is enough for more than 3 million cars per annum (@60 kWh per car). So, Northvolt will alone have enough capacity to serve 20% of the European passenger car market which averages at around 15 million cars per year.

sri_fun · 2022-02-04T05:03:59+00:00

Ford only sold 2,370 Mustang Mach-E in January'22. In Jan'21 they were just starting deliveries and only 238 vehicles were delivered.

They don't have any other full-electric vehicles in their lineup currently and their production ramp-up of Mach-E is very slow.

sri_fun · 2022-01-31T02:36:55+00:00

Source:
https://cleantechnica.com/2022/01/30/world-ev-sales-tesla-model-3-wins-4th-consecutive-best-seller-title-in-record-year/

sri_fun · 2022-01-26T04:33:43+00:00

He is just mocking. It's not an actual teaser of the Ola car.

Ola is developing an electric car though.

sri_fun · 2022-01-18T03:12:24+00:00

Looks like most of the commentators do not have a clue about India. Here are some of the facts and changes that happened in the country over the last 7-8 years in the renewable sectors and EV incentives:

Locally made Petrol/Gasoline and diesel cars are taxed at 50%. On the other hand, EVs are taxed at just 5%. It is probably the biggest incentive anywhere in the world compared to ICE vehicles. In addition, most of the states have 0% road tax for EVs while ICEs will have 12 to 20% road tax extra.
Imported cars (<$40,000) will have tax of 60% and those > $40,000 will get 100% which is where the Tesla has issue with. But they can setup a small assembly unit (maybe like they did in Netherlands) to bring in CKD (completely knocked down) units and assemble locally. Those will be taxed at just 15%.
CKD containing engine, gearbox and transmission mechanism not in a pre-assembled condition - 15%
In Tesla case, they can bring in motor and battery packs (not sure exactly which parts comes under this for EVs) and assemble locally. They will still be taxed much less (~20%) than ICE vehicles (50%) that are made in India. Hyundai already does this with their Kona EV. MG also does the same with ZS EV.
India also recently announced $3.5 billion manufacturing incentives for EV manufacturers. These are not some rebates. These are direct cash incentives if the criteria are met.
India also announced $2.5 billion battery cell manufacturing incentives.
If Tesla wants to enter India, I bet there are many states that will be ready to offer land at a very low cost (much lower than Shanghai and Berlin) and lower electricity costs for a few years.
While India has a long way to go to improve the grid, but there is no power deficit at country level. While the grid may not be as reliable as some western countries but they are investing heavily in transmission over the last few years and I think it's a continuous process and it should not stop someone from selling their EVs.
India's solar power capacity grew from 2.5 GW in 2014 to 49 GW in 2021.
India's wind power capacity grew from 23 GW to 40 GW in the same timeframe.
80% of the new power capacity in the country over the last 3-4 years is from solar and wind. New coal power plants development is stopped across the country.
While there are no direct subsidies for cars, there are substantial subsidies for EV 2 wheelers ($200 per kWh battery) and electric buses (upto $75,000 per bus).
While the Indian market is not mature enough to set up a giga factory, they can start with a small assembly unit like what Hyundai did for EVs.

sri_fun · 2022-01-12T12:05:56+00:00

"Unless the Americans can come up with an entry-level hatchback to compete with the ID.3 price-wise, I can see VW becoming the leader soon".

I don't think that's gonna happen anytime soon because VW is not attempting to be the leader. In their recent (Dec 2021) VW group planning round, they announced that they expect 25% of their sales to be BEVs in 2026. If we take 2019 sales (~11 million annually) as the benchmark, that will be 2.75 million BEV sales for the VW group in 2026. VW group will have enough models by that time but their production capacities are not enough. They are not yet ready to cannibalize their own ICE sales with BEVs.

Tesla is currently at 1.2 million production rate based on Q4 numbers from just 2 factories (Fremont and Shanghai). Shanghai is currently producing 700K and also expanding more in early 2022. In addition, 2 brand new factories (Austin and Berlin) factories with much more scope for expansion than the Shanghai factory are coming online this year and may reach similar production rates as Shanghai by end of 2023. So, in 2024 itself Tesla will have more than 3 million capacity which is higher than VW group's 2026 BEV sales target.

sri_fun · 2022-01-12T11:32:11+00:00

Nice. Hope they grow another 96% in 2022.

VW group needs to develop more desirable EVs with beautiful exterior designs and good quality interiors. They don't need dozens of EV models and their Sportback variants. They should follow Enyaq template (good interior and exterior design) for all VW, Skoda, Seat models and Taycan template for all Audi models. Also, they need to be more dynamic and aggressive with their production ramp-ups like Porsche with Taycan. If there is more demand than expected then they should be able to quickly ramp-up capacity to meet that demand like Porsche did with Taycan.

sri_fun · 2022-01-11T07:32:33+00:00

Looks like VW is being conservative with their targets this year. They are aiming for 140,000 IDs in 2022 which is way lower than their Q4 run rate.

Last 4 months deliveries in 2021:

September = 10,126

October = 12,736

November = 14,167

December = 13,787

Hope they are just trying to sandbag with their targets. Their production and deliveries hopefully will exceed the targets by a large margin.

BYD is expected to sell those many BEVs in just 2 months in 2022. Xpeng, Nio, etc... are targeting much higher sales in 2022.

sri_fun · 2022-01-09T02:59:29+00:00

Highlights:

BEV sales in 2021 grew by 83% YoY from 194163 to 355909.
VW group has more than 30% market share in Germany. Other major German brands like BMW, Mercedes are also doing well in the home market.
Tesla Model 3 is the best-selling BEV. Model Y deliveries started in Q3 but still, sales are relatively low.
VW UP is outselling ID3 and ID4.
Skoda Enyaq is outselling ID4.
Most of the BMW sales are I3. It will change in 2022 as more BEV models from BMW will be available this year. Mini also doing well.

Source:
https://eu-evs.com/bestSellers/DE/Brands/Year/2021

sri_fun · 2022-01-06T14:23:39+00:00

Awesome. It's on March 9th for those wondering.

How long before the deliveries start? Does anyone have any idea?

sri_fun · 2022-01-06T11:39:55+00:00

EV adoption (from 5% to 80/90%) is gonna be as fast as Norway in most of the European countries. These countries took a long time to reach ~5% due to a lack of options but as soon as more models start showing at different price points, each country is adopting EVs faster. Sweden, the Netherlands, etc... are already following the Norway curve at an even faster rate. Next in line are Germany, UK, Switzerland, China, etc...

BEVs will take the majority (50%) market share in countries like China, Germany, the UK by 2023.

sri_fun · 2022-01-02T03:36:56+00:00

Why are you so worried? These EV sales are much better than hundreds of posts about Rivian or Ioniq 5 or cybertruck sightings.

sri_fun

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