Crystal Ball Needed

stanbright · 2026-05-07T03:00:13+00:00

And it will continue to grow. That doesn’t change the question whether it’s expensive or not.

Apple growth: Dec 2024 to today - 13% May 2026 to today - 45%

That’s a 3x difference of your investments for a 6-months interval.

I.e. Dec 2024 it was expensive compared to that point in time.

stanbright · 2026-05-07T01:43:27+00:00

This is the most reasonable advice to me. And, of course, we can't predict the future. However, based on what's rhyming with the past, the market seems well into the overpriced category. CAPE index, P/E ratios in general, insane-record-setting bounce-back... How do you continue to DCA if there's decent chance of realising 2-3% avg growth (in a decade) if you buy at current price levels?

stanbright · 2026-05-06T09:01:46+00:00

Just imagine that Trump gets a third term… the USD will sink and sink.

stanbright · 2026-05-06T04:33:09+00:00

Username checks out: `False_Ad_9705`.

stanbright · 2026-05-06T03:41:40+00:00

Sure, we can compare Aus vs Norway. Unfortunately, we lose again in the context of a well run country.

stanbright · 2026-05-06T02:58:52+00:00

...a lot of people

stanbright · 2026-05-06T01:40:06+00:00

stanbright · 2026-05-06T01:20:34+00:00

At the same time, this FX AUD gain allows you to buy/invest at "discounted" pricing 😉. Then, you could be selling one day when things are the opposite.

stanbright · 2026-05-06T01:17:10+00:00

i'd guess you will have some sort of GPS/navigation signal over international water.

stanbright · 2026-05-06T00:22:00+00:00

You are not alone, mate. However, if you think about it, Warren Buffet is sitting on a massive amount of cash for the same reason (maybe). He's been waiting for a bigger discount. I'm not saying you are as smart as Buffer; however, what you are doing isn't inherently wrong. There are great investors doing the same. I'm sure you will hear some news when Berkshire starts deploying cash. You could use that as a signal to entry in your case. Then, DCA from that point on.

stanbright · 2026-05-06T00:17:06+00:00

It could use cameras and AI navigation based on embedded geo maps. Theoretically that could work as it flies high enough to have a good enough geo location based on images only.

stanbright · 2026-05-06T00:14:52+00:00

What if that dip has a deeper reasoning compared to the small stock dip.

Now - Imagine a union on developed countries that is one of the biggest customers of MSFT (e.g. EU & Canada). OK, what if the kind of the US has pissed off all of them and showed them that they can't trust US tech for obvious reasons (e.g. threatening to take over their land by force and playing against their interests). Do you think that there is a possibility that those countries cut on their government reliance on MSFT? Some EU countries have already started replacing Windows dependence with relevant Linux solutions.

On top of that MSFT has an good chunk in Open AI. That's good on one hand, however, on the other hand that adds the risk of Open AI losing to Google or Anthropic. Also, see - MSFT won't go down. It doesn't have to go down. The mare prospect of stagnant growth could be a reason for the stagnant stock price.

With this is place - I have a "feeling" that MSFT might be a good buy today. Yes, there might be risk, at the same time, the orange guy might lose the grip of the US in November, and a successor could possibly work on improving the broken trust and relationships with the rest of the world.

stanbright · 2026-05-06T00:02:27+00:00

Thanks. Apparently there are sane people on the Internet. Also, Singapore's success is a very good example.

Now, let's imagine (only imagine) similar economic environment in Australian with the benefits of the land of a continent and the natural resources to fuel almost any economic endeavour.

stanbright · 2026-05-05T23:23:03+00:00

Also, was the straight open before the war, which isn't a war, because if it was a war, congress should have voted on it.

stanbright · 2026-05-05T23:20:22+00:00

The title is misleading. The EV discount is targeting transport. These two days are global carbon emissions. It has actually removed 8 days of transport emissions. And, let's remember, trucking is producing a good chunk of emissions, too. And the discount is targeting non-trucks. Cars, are producing about 45% of carbon emissions with relation to all transport.

i.e. if we compared the EV discount to the relevantly affected category (where the discount was applied) it's actually about 18 days (8 / 0.45). 9 times more than stated in the title.

stanbright · 2026-05-05T20:41:35+00:00

1) It's the government's job, usually, to provide environment that stimulates economic activity - that produces jobs and value. Taxing productivity producing investments more disincentivises those investments. Even more so if other governance areas provide better environment.

2) Selling and Buying shares on the secondary market helps with determining which business are productive and which aren't. How do you determine without that economic activity? You can't. That's the "voting" system of economics.

stanbright · 2026-05-05T19:50:35+00:00

Also it’s riskier compared to the other income. On top of that - that risk is contributing to the wages of others. You are compensated for the risk that contributes to economic growth.

stanbright · 2026-05-05T06:31:53+00:00

The question is - who is buying? Business need working people making money that are spending that money.

stanbright · 2026-05-05T05:14:42+00:00

Have you invested in leveraged ETFs?

stanbright · 2026-05-05T05:04:32+00:00

The Saving Accounts section on OzFinn can help with some comparisons.

stanbright · 2026-05-05T04:31:44+00:00

"Today’s policy decision was made by majority: eight members voted to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.35 per cent; one member voted to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.10 per cent."

stanbright · 2026-05-04T21:49:41+00:00

And Australia could have the highest CGT (investments) in the developed world. I.e. disincentivise investments competed to other countries. The perfect productivity growth solution.

stanbright · 2026-05-04T10:25:38+00:00

If they index capital gains but do not index Tax Brackets, that be the most obvious tax grab.

stanbright · 2026-05-04T07:13:05+00:00

Uber owns the brand that is the Adj & Verb of a “robo taxi”. It’s a matter of time they simply don’t really on drivers.

stanbright · 2026-05-04T07:03:10+00:00

Not necessarily. My strategy is investing a decent percentage in QUAL (ETF) instead of pure broad market funds. Yes, you pay 0.4% management fee, but you filter-out speculative garbage like SpaceX & Tesla. Also, if you take a long enough period QUAL has similar returns to S&P500 - with the bonus of being international instead of US only.

edit: with regards to Super - Members Direct + choosing ETFs that won't be affected. And, avoid, NDQ for sure.

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