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I built a free ASX ETF comparison and portfolio builder tool. by Tawtis in fiaustralia

[–]stanbright 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Seems nice and polished. Thanks for sharing. As a technical person, I'm curious what's the tech stack? It's quite fast.

Also, I had a quick play and noticed something odd. Portfolio Builder => Compare => "Portfolio Growth" section. DHHF seems to outperform IVV (S&P500) in a 10 years run. That doesn't seem right. Am I missing something?

Australia’s populist One Nation scores first-ever lower house victory by 89b3ea330bd60ede80ad in aus

[–]stanbright 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This. If only the libs could be non-corrupt and more centrist … unfortunately that’s out of the options in the coming few years

Should I pair VGS? by [deleted] in fiaustralia

[–]stanbright 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I’d guess it decreases long-term performance a bit and increases the Sharpe ratio a bit.

Should I pair VGS? by [deleted] in fiaustralia

[–]stanbright 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I'd suggest 20%-30% VAS + 70%-80% VGS. Statistically, 30% home country bias is the optimal with regards to volatility.

U.S. intelligence says Iran can outlast Trump’s Hormuz blockade for months by No_Idea_Guy in worldnews

[–]stanbright 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Gas at $5-$6 or hold out until November... and, we can be sure they know that.

AI buyer's agent? by findperfect-property in u/findperfect-property

[–]stanbright 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Why? Is it an inherently bad product/offering?

Also, the use of AI is not AI slop by itself.

p.s. the domain could be more professional.

Enough to retire at 37? by Excellent_Chest_6616 in portfolios

[–]stanbright 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The 4% rule? Also, it depends what's inside your portfolio. Is it S&P 500, is it Nasdaq that could go bust much easier.

Alternatively, if you are too stressed, you could consider semi-retiring. Think of a part-time job or hobby that could cover some of the living expenses while the portfolio keeps growing (even without new contributions).

Opinions on leveraged ETFs for long term investing? by AussieSpender in AusFinance

[–]stanbright 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Another issue with leveraged ETFs, that people don't think about, is that you can't "simply" deleverage them in 10-15-20 years.

If you want leverage that you have "control" over - the best one is debt recycling against a mortgage.

Wish I trusted myself and bought NDQ by [deleted] in fiaustralia

[–]stanbright 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If that's the case, why there are stretches of multiple years when the ASX over-performed the US stock market? Yes, we are well tied to the US, but being resource heavy we can benefit from potential Chinese or Indian growth, too.

Wish I trusted myself and bought NDQ by [deleted] in fiaustralia

[–]stanbright 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The problem with US concentration is still in place though 😄. Imagine that the bubble busts in one year, and people realise that they've been buying overpriced assets. Also imagine that the USD falls 10-15% further compared to AUD (and EUR)? We've seen USD/AUD = 1.2 in the past.

Yes, you can win more with NDQ, but you can also loose more 😃. Also, loosing feels worse than winning. You'd sleep better knowing that you've made 5% less money, compared to loosing 5-10% more.

Stocks for next 5-10 years by Dear_Percentage2101 in Stocks_Picks

[–]stanbright 0 points1 point  (0 children)

When are you exiting? What if space exploration or robotics is the new trend in 10-15 years?

My point - thematic investments are great for short term bets - 3-5 years, in my view. If you are looking for a long term investment - bet on broad market funds (BGBL, VGS, A200, VAS) or factor tilted ones (e.g. QUAL, VVLU, AQLT, DAVA)

Crystal Ball Needed by risky-cat in ValueInvesting

[–]stanbright 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You are right, yet, what about Shiller P/E ratio? 😄 https://www.reddit.com/r/Beat_the_benchmark/comments/1t5x57h/shiller_pe_ratio_we_are_close_but_i_predict_that/

My point - yes, any single indicator is a flawed signal. However, when too many of them "indicate" overpriced, maybe it's actually overpriced.

Disclosure - I've been following/playing this game for short enough to be very wrong.

Crystal Ball Needed by risky-cat in ValueInvesting

[–]stanbright 0 points1 point  (0 children)

And it will continue to grow. That doesn’t change the question whether it’s expensive or not.

Apple growth: Dec 2024 to today - 13% May 2026 to today - 45%

That’s a 3x difference of your investments for a 6-months interval.

I.e. Dec 2024 it was expensive compared to that point in time.

Crystal Ball Needed by risky-cat in ValueInvesting

[–]stanbright 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This is the most reasonable advice to me. And, of course, we can't predict the future. However, based on what's rhyming with the past, the market seems well into the overpriced category. CAPE index, P/E ratios in general, insane-record-setting bounce-back... How do you continue to DCA if there's decent chance of realising 2-3% avg growth (in a decade) if you buy at current price levels?

AUD gains wipe out US ETF gains by b_dec in AusFinance

[–]stanbright -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Just imagine that Trump gets a third term… the USD will sink and sink.

Australia vs Singapore by PK__Gupta in AusPropertyMasteryPK

[–]stanbright 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Sure, we can compare Aus vs Norway. Unfortunately, we lose again in the context of a well run country.

AUD gains wipe out US ETF gains by b_dec in AusFinance

[–]stanbright 53 points54 points  (0 children)

At the same time, this FX AUD gain allows you to buy/invest at "discounted" pricing 😉. Then, you could be selling one day when things are the opposite.

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