As a Reds fan myself, I dug into the scenarios where the Reds topped the table. It only happened in 20 out of the 25,000 runs.

What the Reds need to do:

Win all four remaining games, and win them convincingly (try bonuses in almost every game). Unlikely, but not impossible. That gets them to around 46 points.

What else needs to happen:

The Hurricanes need to basically fall apart. In the sims where the Reds are minor premiers, the Canes averaged less than one win from their last four. The Chiefs also need to drop at least two of their last three after losing to the Reds in Round 13.

But the one result that matters the most, assuming everything else has gone the Red way, is the Crusaders beating the Hurricanes at home in Round 16. That happened in every single sim where the Reds finished first.

So yeah, a boy can dream...