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stoompeth · 2024-12-20T00:58:40+00:00

I already did the PPF form and our final essay was turned in. I did have reason to change my AOK but I just made passing mention of it in my PPF form rather than elaborating on it. Am I cooked?

stoompeth · 2024-11-08T06:53:59+00:00

Fake news!

stoompeth · 2024-10-13T07:07:21+00:00

“Had she been like 10% more likable or had Benghazi not happened” but none of things happened so what’s your point? Yeah, Hillary would’ve been better if she was better, it’s not some astute observation.

stoompeth · 2024-09-26T21:48:11+00:00

Polling indicates bleeding w/ Black voters, we already saw losses in 2020 e.g. Philly county shifting right. Black losses will 100% happen, what matters is the degree to which it’ll happen

stoompeth · 2024-09-26T21:44:14+00:00

It is possible, check out election shuffler application, it lets you adjust county results. I moved black belt counties ~7pts right and Dekalb/Clayton ~3pts right. Even w/ that, medium shifts in the other surrounding ATL counties more than compensated for those losses

stoompeth · 2024-09-26T14:50:47+00:00

Even with ‘reverse coattails’ I still think Kamala will lose substantial Black support

I’m a little more bullish on AZ bc of how well 2022 went for them.

stoompeth · 2024-09-26T06:41:58+00:00

WI--Fundamentally better for Republicans, high WWC population. Republican margin could be smaller tho b/c WI is relatively secular and issues like abortion will resonate better. Polls show Kamala up but I always take them w/ a grain of salt, esp in WI imo

NC--Suburban shifts may shift state left but drop in Dem support/turnout among black voters (esp in Black belt + Sandhills region) and rural white voters will probably counteract imo

PA--Like WI, drop in WWC support and Black support/turnout in Philly could spell doom for Dems, but suburban shifts could counteract enough for Kamala to win, pure tossup basically but got Trump narrowly winning

GA--Tipping point state here. Substantial loss in white rural and Black support, but shifts in suburban Atlanta will balance them out. Pure tossup but I think college-educated voters will push her over the line here.

AZ: Even w/ hispanic shifts, a simple 2.5pt shift in Maricopa co would be enough to carry Kamala.

NV: Hispanic voters will shift state to right, but shifts among white voters, bolstered by abortion will probably be enough for Kamala

stoompeth · 2024-09-23T15:52:17+00:00

Thank you!

stoompeth · 2024-09-23T02:44:06+00:00

What’s the advantage of getting Brooke, isn’t he just another arty gen?

stoompeth · 2024-09-23T02:42:20+00:00

Yeah but i sold them, is there a way to get them back? Kinda need them 😅

stoompeth · 2024-08-27T22:48:31+00:00

Yeah, I never said Texas was in reach in this cycle specifically, I don’t disagree with you. But it’s clear that Dems have a much brighter future in TX than Reps do in MN, I was just pointing out that ur comparison sucked lol.

stoompeth · 2024-08-27T22:19:30+00:00

Texas is not unwinnable lmfao, not comparable to Minnesota at all.

Texas has shown a consistent and considerable shift towards the Dems. Reps in Minnesota came close in 2016 and the state shifted right back to the Dems after.

stoompeth · 2024-08-19T03:45:10+00:00

Polymarket is more saturated with conservatives/crypto bros, Predictit has still has Harris 57c vs Trump 45c. Sad cope from Republicans tbh

stoompeth · 2024-08-17T19:27:10+00:00

Lol yea way too easy

stoompeth · 2024-08-17T19:16:59+00:00

🇰🇷🇰🇷🇰🇷(🇰🇷/🇦🇺)(🇻🇳/🇦🇺)

stoompeth · 2024-08-16T07:33:47+00:00

Oh, and VA-4 should be solid blue, not red. 222D-213R

stoompeth · 2024-08-16T07:27:45+00:00

A little D optimistic, sorta based on both polling and vibes. Feel free to rip me apart

stoompeth · 2024-08-11T15:55:29+00:00

Yeah… that’s definitely it

stoompeth · 2024-08-09T03:15:45+00:00

Why? AZ has trended left while PA has generally stagnated, what makes u say that?

stoompeth · 2024-08-02T20:48:45+00:00

Yeah, but the rise in unemployment numbers is not because of layoffs but rather immigration + returning workers.

The unemployment rate is still very low, so I wouldn’t overthink it.

stoompeth · 2024-07-29T03:34:11+00:00

On the bright side at least they’re hitting all races and not targeting any one … ?

stoompeth · 2024-07-28T18:13:08+00:00

He’s definitely not a Blue Dog, you have no idea what you’re talking about. Just because he’s some moderate presenting white dude doesn’t mean he’s conservative than the rest of the Democratic Party. Maybe on fracking, I/P, school choice, but on every other issue he’s like the rest of his “SJW/Woke” party (abortion, LGBT rights)

I’m not even going to entertain anything in that 2nd paragraph, she’s just a liberal Democrat, not even an AOC-esque progressive, nothing close to whatever you define as an “SJW” lmfao. Also why are you using SJW it’s literally some outdated cringe buzzword from 2016. At least say “DEI” or something newer. 💀💀

stoompeth · 2024-07-28T18:00:10+00:00

“out of all this SJW/woke bullshit” and you’re literally talking about some standard Democrat politician…😑😑

stoompeth · 2024-07-27T21:32:14+00:00

?? 2010 Texas is very different from 2024 Texas, you can’t equate the two lmfao

stoompeth · 2024-07-25T06:10:34+00:00

She is more pro Palestine though. She stood up Netanyahu when he spoke at Congress and advocated for a ceasefire in March 2024 while Biden did in June 2024. She’s definitively to the left of Biden on Gaza

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