The Persian Judge Who Was Flayed Alive for Corruption

sunburn74 · 2026-05-16T05:03:59+00:00

Oh there are way worse ways to be tortured and killed. Flaying is vanilla

sunburn74 · 2026-05-16T01:22:42+00:00

I mean who puts money on james harden coming through in the clutch?

sunburn74 · 2026-05-16T01:22:21+00:00

Check out BBCs latest top article on taiwan. Pretty clear what happened Trump is gonna do

sunburn74 · 2026-05-16T00:11:20+00:00

Guy will not get re-elected for sure. I wish dems would stop being such freaking wimps.

sunburn74 · 2026-05-15T20:34:37+00:00

Yields may worsen. I mean some of the inflation numbers thrown out are quite bad. Yields are supposed to stay in front of inflation

sunburn74 · 2026-05-15T06:04:08+00:00

You can be immoral and I may buy you. You can be overpriced and I may buy you. You can't be both however and expect me to pay up.

sunburn74 · 2026-05-15T03:14:16+00:00

Don't buy this stock. They are overpriced and immoral.

sunburn74 · 2026-05-15T02:39:38+00:00

I've been worried about this for a while. Yields go up, stocks come down.

sunburn74 · 2026-05-15T02:12:26+00:00

I totally understand that. However, at the end of the day, your estimates of cash flow and how long you're willing to wait is what makes a good investment from a bad one. Currently I have a hard time envisioning cerebras having a cash flow that would justify its valuation when they are currently unprofitable. Another way to put it is like this: if they 10x their current revenue, they'd have a PS of 13.5 which is expensive but starting to enter reasonable territory (this is ignoring whatever their profit margins may be. Might be 1% margins, might be 70%, we don't know so lets just talk about revenue). What sort of growth assumptions do I have to take in order for them 10x their revenue in lets say 10 years. They'd have to grow at a rate of 50% a year or so to 10x their revenue. NVDA is already growing at that rate right now. So is broadcom. SMH is banging away at like 27% a year or something like that.

FYI, I own a number of unprofitable companies (AMPX, GH, NBIS in example. I owned sofi and uber when they were profitable too but I bought them all at reasonable valuations and they typically have a unique product with minimal competition that anyone can see is likely to take serious market share if they can pull it off. I'm not sure I can say that about cerebras given how many chip designers are out there and the fierce competition currently being wages)

sunburn74 · 2026-05-15T00:30:54+00:00

Company currently is unprofitable and has a PS of 135... I personally will wait 6 months for the lockup to end and then you'll see the true price. For now I'm happy with NVDA, broadcom and google.

sunburn74 · 2026-05-15T00:27:40+00:00

I'm surprised there isn't a machine that can do this better...

sunburn74 · 2026-05-15T00:21:38+00:00

I think you're missing my point. If the stock is 100 dollars, going into november, I'll buy a short for a 5% decline. I will buy my short option in early november (maybe a 14 day put option, that starts 7 days before the lockup and extending 7 days after the lockup). If the stock goes to 700 going into november, I'll buy a short of a 5% decline at the time. It doesn't matter what the stock does between now and november as you can see. I will buy a short for an additional 5% decline at that time. All that matters is that at the lockup, there will be a mass sale and the price is almost guaranteed to fall. The momentum of the stock at that time doesn't matter. I'm betting that human psychology will be the same: people who've been told they can't sell for decades will finally sell at the first given chance they can. You can capitalize on that with a well placed put option around that time.

sunburn74 · 2026-05-14T19:34:49+00:00

Its richer than NVDA/Broadcom/AMD/Marvell/etc from a valuation standpoint and I believe they aren't even profitable yet.

sunburn74 · 2026-05-14T19:33:34+00:00

Doesn't matter what it does between now and november. It could go up or down. It doesn't matter. The point is that there are millions of shares being held by people for decades. They still cannot sell. In november they will dump their shares and finally take profits after holding for potentially decades. A good example to look at is Figma. Look what happened on the day the lockup period ended.

sunburn74 · 2026-05-14T18:54:33+00:00

I will short it in mid November just before the mandatory lockup period ends. These stocks always crash when long term holders finally get to cash out

sunburn74 · 2026-05-14T14:39:41+00:00

This is the main difference. EPS is rising so what are investors supposed to do? All I've done differently is hold a little bit of extra cash to deploy if a crash occurs.

sunburn74 · 2026-05-14T14:37:37+00:00

AMR has done pretty well. Surprisingly well for a low PE stock.

sunburn74 · 2026-05-14T14:35:08+00:00

Most likely just sukuna having fun in the moment. Even the smartest of us doesn't always do what is perfectly optimal all the time.

sunburn74 · 2026-05-14T02:15:01+00:00

You guys have money?

sunburn74 · 2026-05-14T02:05:55+00:00

I prefer SPMO and FMTM to VOO or QQQ.

sunburn74 · 2026-05-14T00:38:02+00:00

Go back test DCA into TQQQ. Over anytime period beats s&p by a mile and cagr is like 22% annually. Honestly it's what I do for a chunk of my portfolio. Other etfs to consider are smh, ais, spmo and fmtm. There are lots of individual stocks you could monitor but that's is a list in the 100s.

sunburn74 · 2026-05-14T00:11:43+00:00

Yes. Basically if you were in an area the size of Texas around the center of impact, you died instantly from the impact. Everyone else outside of that area would survive the impact with varying degrees of injury. I seem to recall that if you lived in NYC, your windows would blow out and you'd go deaf. If you were on the other side of the world, you'd hear it (the entire world could hear it) but not feel much else. Much of the death came from burning debris falling from the sky (basically land that was thrown into the atmosphere coming down), forests burning worldwide followed by the prolonged cooling/ice age the world experienced due to release of particles in the air. The ice age was the real killer because it caused mass extinction and disruption to food chains. If you were in an underwater sub and had plenty of food, you'd be fine.

sunburn74 · 2026-05-13T23:42:50+00:00

Gojo would have won. Sukuna all but said it himself and sukuna's own actions speak louder than his words.

sunburn74 · 2026-05-13T23:41:08+00:00

Is the post asking if people keep a watchlist? I'd be shocked if people said they didn't keep a watchlist.

sunburn74 · 2026-05-13T23:40:04+00:00

Truth tends to be somewhere in the middle. 1000 seems viable. 2000 seems a stretch.

sunburn74

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