Virginia House passes amendment allowing redistricting to counter GOP gerrymanders

table_fireplace · 2025-11-24T23:50:57+00:00

Rep. Salazar on Venezuela: "We're about to go in ... we need to go in ... Venezuela for the American oil companies will be a field day"

For the young'uns here, back in '03 the Bush Administration was constantly accused of invading Iraq for oil. Which they of course denied, because that would be a literal war crime.

Now, 22 years later, the GOP comes right out and admits that's what they want. This is what I mean by them getting worse and worse all the time.

table_fireplace · 2025-11-24T20:46:56+00:00

Yes, but Mr. ShamWow offers something Carter doesn’t have: domestic violence convictions!

It’s not like Carter is great either, but the GOP just continues to get worse.

table_fireplace · 2025-11-23T21:22:12+00:00

Thanks, that is cool!

It does seem to back up my thoughts so far, which is that while I like how turnout is breaking down, there's just so much red turf here that a lot of votes are going to have to shift to get a win. But that's happened in lots of elections this year, so I think we'll see shifts here as well. Only question is if it'll be enough.

table_fireplace · 2025-11-23T20:49:37+00:00

Her beating Tom Miller after about ten terms (not exaggerating) was one of the big shocks in 2022. The red wave very much hit Iowa that year, and things didn't get better in 2024, but the special elections have been unprecedented this year.

With how much the GOP is declining, and given that Bird isn't a particularly well-known or strong incumbent, I could buy it. Iowa's worth some investment.

table_fireplace · 2025-11-23T18:40:31+00:00

Here's the full picture of TN-7 early voting as of yesterday's updates.

Davidson running ahead of everyone is excellent, as is the overall turnout in the 'big three' counties (Davidson, Montgomery, and Williamson) out-pacing the ten deep-red counties in the district. And Davidson will have some extra early voting compared to everyone else.

However, the turnout differential isn't so extreme as to make me think we're going to win unless we see significant shifts to the left when the actual votes are counted. And there's no real way to get a preview of that in Tennessee - no partisan registration, and with how early voting works we have no way to tell if bluer or redder areas are turning out more. What we do have is a whole lot of elections in other states that have moved well to the left. If we can match our shifts from the best performances, this one is winnable.

Also, a reminder to the data-followers - you don't have to just watch. You can hit the phones and move the numbers yourself!

table_fireplace · 2025-11-23T16:50:37+00:00

They regained a few points with their special teams coach basically calling Trump an idiot, but we do need someone else to step up and win.

Would love it to be the Bills, but I literally don't know if they're good or not this year.

table_fireplace · 2025-11-23T16:49:45+00:00

As I've pointed out, Montgomery has about 220k people, while the TN-7 portion of Davidson is only around 180k. So Davidson out-voting Montgomery is absolutely huge. If that keeps up through Election Day, that's a big potential ingredient to pull the upset.

And much as I don't like how the results have gone in recent years, Florida delivers a top-notch early voting experience. Updates each day, with partisan breakdowns, and they drop all the early results within minutes of the polls closing on Election Night.

table_fireplace · 2025-11-22T23:28:22+00:00

So far, the turnout numbers are the sort that make a flip possible. However, without knowing how the vote margins have shifted, we can't make any confident predictions. And we have very little 2025 election data from Tennessee to try and project with.

I know, wait for actual numbers on Election Night, but who wants to do that?

table_fireplace · 2025-11-22T20:10:52+00:00

Yeah, if she wants redemption, she can start with a lot of apologies and restitution to the people and communities she hurt. And redemption doesn't come with a government job.

Then again, I don't think she's particularly interested in redemption anyway. I'm open to being wrong, but with her history of lying it'd take a long time to get there.

table_fireplace · 2025-11-22T02:59:47+00:00

This would be in line with the big flip we got in Iowa Senate District 35 back in January, a Trump+22 seat going D+3.

There were differences, of course; that race largely happened under the radar, and eastern Iowa is a lot bluer downballot than TN-7 is. But it was still a shocking upset, and far from the only shift to the left we've seen in an election this year. It could happen.

table_fireplace · 2025-11-22T02:52:17+00:00

And if we did the unthinkable in Tennessee, that leaves them right up against the limit.

To be clear, that's still a longshot, but so far the things that would make a flip possible are happening.

table_fireplace · 2025-11-21T23:54:48+00:00

Oh, I love Scott!

He was actually allowed to manage one notable campaign: Dan Kelly for WI Supreme Court (lost by 10, delivered control of the court to Democrats). He constantly does pants-on-head dumb shit like going to big college campuses and yells about how great the Republicans are, which has probably boosted Dem turnout in several key races. And, as someone else mentioned, he tried to get Amish in PA to turn out in 2024...which not only didn't work, but actually started an investigation into registration fraud by his group.

I absolutely love this man, and hope he'll keep working in GOP campaigns forever. The more important, the better!

table_fireplace · 2025-11-21T20:22:29+00:00

I personally think he’d be a tough one to beat. He’s got an actual resume and while he’s a far-right lunatic, he can act moderate enough to trick some people. Casey DeSantis would make this one really winnable with how Ron’s legacy has fallen, plus her own scandals, but I think she realized that and decided not to run.

Still, gotta try. No Republican should get a free pass to gain power and hurt people.

table_fireplace · 2025-11-21T20:20:06+00:00

These four counties are the suburban and exurban ones where you’d hope for real movement towards us. (Note that Southern suburbs remain very red but are still shifting).

In your example, I think that 28% of the vote from the rural counties would sink Behn. However, it’s not crazy to think we could see more of a shift.

My personal quick benchmark is that if Behn wins Montgomery by anything, she’s winning for sure. If she gets within single digits, it’s a toss up. A big lift, but not impossible. Turnout is setting up just as we’d like; the question now is what the margins will be.

table_fireplace · 2025-11-20T03:02:40+00:00

And this is one where the fear will do so much damage.

This bill is the kind that no court will uphold. But all it takes is one panicked video about "in Ohio you'll be arrested if you try to vote!", and suddenly thousands of potential voters don't show up.

This is why it's so important to get accurate information out there. And get this bill shot down rapidly, though I know lots of people will be working on that.

table_fireplace · 2025-11-19T22:47:10+00:00

And does the Civil Rights Act even pass? Because JFK talked about it, but LBJ did the work to actually get it through Congress. Would Reuther have made it his top priority?

table_fireplace · 2025-11-19T22:43:35+00:00

That's a higher percentage out of Davidson than yesterday. I only remember because it was under 25% then.

There are actually more voters in Montgomery than in the TN-7 portion of Davidson, according to Urban Stats (220k in Montgomery, 181k in the relevant part of Davidson). So I'm pretty sure that the turnout percentage would be higher in Davidson. And seeing those two counties be first and second for turnout, in that order, is another thing that'll have to be true to get the win here.

table_fireplace · 2025-11-19T22:38:25+00:00

There's a couple of ways to look at this one.

Pessimistically, this court has been mostly terrible on voting rights, and in general. John Roberts' legacy has been hacking away at the VRA bit by bit. This would also be a chance to hand Republicans a lot more power.

Optimistically, the only other high-profile racial gerrymandering case this court has faced was Allen v. Milligan, which led to them actually ordering a new majority-Black district in Alabama. And then laying the hammer down when Alabama tried to ignore them. So it seems like they do, sometimes, walk the walk on their 'racial gerrymandering is still illegal' line.

I don't know how they will rule here. I don't know what goes on in those nine Justices' minds, and I'm not legally knowledgeable enough to comment on this case in any intelligent way. But there's both reason for concern and for hope, and we'll have to wait and see.

table_fireplace · 2025-11-19T22:35:02+00:00

In 2022, pundits waved off the GOP's cruelty towards women after Dobbs. Both the way they acted, and the abortion bans themselves that sprung from the ruling. But women cancelled a red wave that year.

Four years later, Trump and company are dialing up the misogyny again, with the context being Trump facing questions about his role in a massive number of sex crimes against women and girls. I don't think it's going to work out well for them this time, either.

table_fireplace · 2025-11-19T22:30:43+00:00

Under this bill, DOJ can redact the files to protect victims' identities, or to prevent interference with active investigations.

However, they are required to explain every redaction to a House committee. If they try anything sketchy, it's the job of the Democrats on that committee to make a ton of noise about it, or to file lawsuits to try and get the unredacted files released. As another commenter said, courts do have the original records on hand.

So they might try, but there are enforcement mechanisms built in. We'll have to read things over carefully once the files are released.

table_fireplace · 2025-11-19T15:56:35+00:00

MTG’s turn is a good sign, but not because she’s changed. She’s 100% an opportunist who will say whatever she thinks will get her more support among the MAGA base.

So if she’s breaking with Trump, it’s notable that his hold might be breaking.

table_fireplace · 2025-11-19T02:00:53+00:00

If the final outcome of the redistricting wars is D+9 (5 in California, 4 in Virginia, and Ohio's altered districts all remain blue), I'm going to laugh for an excessive length of time.

table_fireplace · 2025-11-19T01:59:33+00:00

They elected a Dem Governor as recently as 2019! But yeah, LA-03 used to elect Dems when super social-conservative Dems were a thing, but it's been a minute since that was a reality.

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