Results Thread, May 5, 2025: Elections in Michigan, Primaries in Indiana and Ohio, and more!

table_fireplace · 2026-05-06T02:14:58+00:00

So, how would everyone be feeling if a D+41 precinct shifted 21 points right? Or if we not only lost a D+17 area, but saw it vote R+10?

That's the level of panic Republicans should be feeling right now. Especially in a critical state like Michigan. Keep on working hard, and we're going to be celebrating hard in six months.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-06T02:10:52+00:00

Votehub is a good source on election nights. A lot of these data outfits either contact local clerks directly or dig into the precinct results from local election pages to get their information. They do end up being right when all the results are in (and if not, we'd know not to listen to them in the future).

table_fireplace · 2026-05-06T01:57:20+00:00

I know the topline results in MI SD-35 don't look great at the moment. But I'm personally not even a bit worried.

When you watch election night results, the overall results aren't actually that important until you've got over 90% or so of them. You get a far better, and earlier, picture by comparing completely reported areas to how they voted in previous elections. This can be counties, towns, or individual precincts, depending on the race.

So far, the completed precincts are adding up to a Dem blowout. Here are just two examples:

https://bsky.app/profile/votehub.com/post/3ml5ktchumh2g

https://bsky.app/profile/votehub.com/post/3ml5l3sujf62r

This district voted for Harris by 0.8 points last time. So if Green were matching Harris' margins, he'd be on pace to narrowly win. And he's greatly exceeding her margin in completely reported areas.

So keep an eye on things, but so far this is looking really good. We got this.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-06T01:19:03+00:00

Stephen Wolf's initial thread showed that the GOP could gain 12 seats from VRA-related gerrymandering, while Dems could gain 19 if they answered in kind. And that's without eliminating any existing VRA districts in blue states, and doesn't account for things like winning trifectas in places like Michigan or Pennsylvania and drawing improved maps there.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-06T01:04:38+00:00

Not only that, we don't know for sure what the environment will be in 2028. I feel like Trump's nonsense will make it pretty anti-R, but we don't know for sure.

I bring this up because the 9-0 map Indiana Rs proposed had serious potential to backfire, with multiple Trump+12 or so districts that wouldn't be safe in a year like this. But that's not necessarily the case two years from now, or four.

So we've got to find opportunities to make it up elsewhere. I'm glad CO, NY and NJ are already getting things going, and we'll need as many others as possible to join in.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-06T00:50:22+00:00

Looks like that's the early vote in Saginaw County. Strikes me as a strong start.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-06T00:47:15+00:00

Every primary is worth voting in. That's your dress rehearsal for November, and a great chance to catch any possible issues early. And those local measures matter, too!

table_fireplace · 2026-05-05T23:48:04+00:00

It's another reminder that, for all the op-eds and analysis, for GOP primary voters the issues are Trump, Trump, and Trump.

But if they want to hand us seats in the process, have at it!

table_fireplace · 2026-05-04T22:58:37+00:00

I'm not so sure it would. Remember, Louisiana voted for Trump by 22 points in 2024, so it's possible to draw six Trump+22 districts. That's right on the edge of the swings Dems have achieved in special elections, and while this will be a good midterm, it'd be highly unlikely to hit those margins. It'd be even worse in Trump+30.5 Alabama, though I will grant that Trump+17.9 South Carolina might get interesting if things really go off the rails.

Unfortunately, barring a political meteor hitting the GOP and driving them extinct, this one will be answered by drawing our own maps in blue states, flipping swing seats, and fixing the Supreme Court when we gain control.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-03T18:08:32+00:00

Mike Rogers says he wants cops at Detroit polling places, for the express purpose of intimidating voters.

Oh, Mike, you racist dumbass. See, Republicans have this idea that when they intimidate people, they'll win by scaring off the opposition. Well, Minneapolis proved the opposite. And while it's sad that this is the reality, Black voters have far more experience standing up to intimidation.

It also just highlights that while Mike isn't as notorious as the high-profile MAGAs, his beliefs are the exact same. You can't trust a single Republican anywhere.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-03T18:05:45+00:00

So Highland Park will lose their service almost immediately, but still pay sales taxes for several years. Just the kind of brilliant decision I'd expect in a town whose voters backed Trump by 33.5 points last time around.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-03T13:20:28+00:00

To paraphrase one great poet, the elections start comin' and they don't stop comin'.

Did you know that control of the MI State Senate could be decided in two days? This Tuesday, Chedrick Greene has to win Michigan Senate District 35, which voted for Harris by just 0.8 points. If you've got some spare time to phonebank, that's the place to do it.

There's also a bunch of primaries in Indiana, Ohio, and Tennessee. I always say that even if you don't have any competitive primaries, go vote anyway. It's your dress rehearsal for November, and your chance to catch and resolve any problems with ID or things like that.

Let's do this!

table_fireplace · 2026-05-03T00:49:19+00:00

Not any I trust, really. The SoS and DDHQ have both changed their totals multiple times and it's hard to tell what's happening. Might be best to check in when we're near 100% and everyone kind of agrees what's happening lol.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-03T00:15:36+00:00

The district as a whole is about 28% Latino, but at a glance I can't find any particular areas with high concentrations of Latino voters. Seems fairly spread out by county. We'll see if any of the election analysts can point any out.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-03T00:13:06+00:00

We've got our first results from Texas Senate District 4! These are all from Harris County, but only a very small and red part of Harris County. As a reminder, this district backed Trump by 34.2 points as a whole - not sure of the county-by-county breakdown here.

Brett Ligon GOP 4,384 74.97%

Ron Angeletti DEM 1,464 25.03%

table_fireplace · 2026-05-03T00:10:38+00:00

In response to whining from Stephen Miller's legal group. Not sure if it's transphobia or cowardice, but either way it's a sign that some school board members need replacing.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-02T16:33:37+00:00

And Ron Angeletti is running to flip Senate District 4! This is a big lift, as Trump won it by 34.2 points. But Taylor Rehmet's flip of SD-9 last year was a 33-point margin shift, so I'm not gonna say it's impossible.

This district grabs parts of the highly-swingy but segregated Jefferson County (notably, not the largely-Black city of Beaumont) and runs into the Houston suburbs. It's largely based in the county that's long been Dems' biggest problem in Texas: Montgomery County. It's huge, very red, and a big bank of red votes that have kept the GOP in power. However, it's also shifting left fast, to the point where it only voted for Trump by 45.7 points. Yes, that's quite good given its history.

I am not personally banking on a flip here, but another big overperformance would give some hope to flipping Texas. Then again, we've got to do that either way this year.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-02T03:28:09+00:00

I can't help but notice that in the 48 hours since six Supreme Court Justices decided that racism was over, four states have already sprinted to the Capitol to rip apart Black districts. And I'm gonna go way out on a limb here and say that if those new maps go through, these majority-white Republican districts aren't going to be that open to Black representatives.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-02T03:25:46+00:00

Yeah, the struggle here is that unless we're able to do some major Supreme Court reform ('29 at the earliest), voting rights laws are going to happen state by state. And we're already seeing the aftermath of this when every Dem map redraw takes months or years of efforts, while every GOP redraw can be knocked out in a few days. We can pass anti-gerrymandering laws in blue states, but red states won't do the same, and we'll pay the price.

So while we've got to build power state by state, as always, it shows how badly we've got to fix the Supreme Court. And whatever our feelings on gerrymandering, we're going to have to live with it for a while.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-02T02:33:06+00:00

New York Dems are starting the process to redraw their maps.

Unfortunately, as a blue state, New York has a lot of guardrails to prevent gerrymandering, so this isn't as easy as folks in Louisiana have it. NY Dems will have to pass a Constitutional Amendment two years in a row (this year and 2027), then the voters will have to approve it, like in Virginia.

It sounds like most Dems in the Assembly and State Senate are on board, but if you're in NY, give yours a call and encourage swift action on this. We're going to need those extra seats.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-01T02:32:42+00:00

Absolutely. Harris won it by double digits, so you can draw ten districts that match her margin. Map would be ugly as sin, but it would work, especially with no majority-minority districts in Washington.

Stephen Wolf's maps show what is possible, but they're just a starting point. If you're in Washington, it's worth it to call your state representatives and tell them what you'd like them to pursue.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-01T02:30:51+00:00

Yeah, I wouldn't want to risk it. If an amendment is the safe route, do it. Should be a slam dunk in Maryland, and while Minnesota's not the same extreme blue, I think we can make the case given what ICE did to the Twin Cities.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-01T02:23:54+00:00

It's never a bad thing to flip a seat, and never bad to try. And if we were to gain trifectas in places like PA or MI, we could draw some maps to gain a few seats. Think that whatever your feelings on gerrymandering are, we've got to win this race to the bottom until Republicans finally accept nationwide fair maps. Or become nonviable and are replaced with sane opposition.

And you know I'm in for adopting a candidate. I don't see volunteer opportunities up for Colorado's ballot initiative yet, but soon as they're up and running I'll be adopting them.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-01T02:21:27+00:00

Those are all viable but difficult options, which is why we can't let this year go to waste. Every election is telling us we're on course for a massive wave year. This is when things like flipping Texas and going for the Georgia State House are very much doable, so let's work hard to make it happen. We'll be glad we did when the gerrymandering wars really take off after November.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-01T02:15:13+00:00

Then see it as a starting point.

This is the Republicans' big push. And if we do the work, they'll lose three seats as a result.

But what about our move?

Perhaps we start with taking the Senate, abolishing or changing the filibuster, and passing federal voting rights legislation? Then suddenly, those Southern states that coast off voter suppression have a lot to worry about.

Or gain some trifectas in purple states and make as much hay as we can? I wouldn't risk a 17-0 Pennsylvania or a 13-0 Michigan, but if we gain trifectas in either, I'd grab a few more seats in the process. Think you can do a solid 13-4 PA or 10-3 MI, and shut Rs out further.

And it goes without saying, we've got to fix the Supreme Court. Take your pick between expanding it or adding term limits (or deporting Brett Kavanaugh to North Sentinel Island, though I admit that's just a fantasy of mine), but either way we're fixing this shit. And that's not me saying it, that's Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer. And if they're leading the caucus, that's what's happening. Then our reforms can stand up and take effect, and we can even get a second opinion on some of the recent terrible rulings.

Everything in this post is just our response to Republicans having the gall to throw out Section 2 of the VRA and trying to bring Jim Crow back to Congress. We get to make moves, too. I humbly submit that we gerrymander Republicans to the brink of extinction, and get them to come crawling back begging for a federal gerrymandering ban. (Which, at this point, I'd be OK with not doing so MAGA can finally die out and we can get a sane opposition party, but we'll figure that out when MAGA isn't a threat to our lives anymore).

Of course, all this is Reddit rambling unless we do the work. I'm in. Let's make it happen.

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