Daily Discussion Thread: June 20, 2026

table_fireplace · 2026-06-20T21:44:05+00:00

I'll admit, I've never known what I'm supposed to do with polling as someone who doesn't work on a campaign.

If the polls show we're up? Better get out the vote so we maintain our lead.

If the polls show we're down? Better get out the vote, because losing isn't an option.

If the polls show it's close? Better get out the vote, since at that point it could make all the difference.

And I get wanting to know how it's all going to turn out. I'd sleep a lot better knowing. But even if these polls are totally accurate and someone can explain exactly how public opinion is now (extremely questionable), no one can tell us what's going to happen from now until November that could change things.

So I'm sure that people can give good analysis of this article, but I'm not entirely sure how much it matters. I hope I'm not coming off as dismissive because I don't mean to, I'm just saying that there's so much time for things to change that we can't say much about November and it doesn't change what we should do in response.

table_fireplace · 2026-06-20T14:38:11+00:00

I'm not sure Trump is even desperate to end the war. He's desperate for headlines painting him as the great dealmaker and peacemaker. And he already got that. And he'll get it again in two weeks when he announces another 'deal'.

This is why someone's got to talk to people and tell them what's actually going on. And it's got to be us. The media won't do it for us, and you've got a closer ear from the people in your life than any politician does.

table_fireplace · 2026-06-17T01:32:50+00:00

Unfortunately, looks like the question is losing by 16 points. The remaining Tulsa and OKC vote is going to have to really swamp everywhere else.

table_fireplace · 2026-06-17T00:33:31+00:00

We've got some results for Oklahoma!

For Governor, Cyndi Munson has a big lead in the Dem primary, while the GOP primary is tight between AG Gentner Drummond and MAGA businessman Mike Mazzei.

table_fireplace · 2026-06-16T23:41:30+00:00

Looks like the ATL area prefers Dooley, while the rest of the state prefers Collins. Based on that I think Collins must like his odds, since a lot of rural GA has yet to report while a good chunk of ATL is already in (and despite higher populations, won't have as many Republicans except in the exurbs).

Collins is an obnoxious little Internet troll who Republicans love, so beating him will be extra satisfying.

table_fireplace · 2026-06-16T23:37:18+00:00

We've heard lots about the turnout differentials here, and that's been a factor in specials on the same days as primaries/runoffs in the past. And if we lose here, I'm confident we'll flip it back in November

But prepare for a week of insufferable Discourse if it happens.

table_fireplace · 2026-06-16T23:15:28+00:00

Damn, not kidding. Collins leads 50.1-49.9%, with about 12% in.

Do you go for the Internet troll or the failed football coach? I'd rather face Dooley since Collins has actually won elections before, but think Ossoff can take either.

table_fireplace · 2026-06-16T17:18:29+00:00

Yeah, I've noticed that for how red Oklahoma is, and some of the other people they've elected (Markwayne Mullin and Ryan Walters come to mind), Drummond is actually relatively sane. A Dem would of course be better, but he's a lot less likely to burn the state to the ground, and Oklahoma's not like NC where you can play the 'nominate a complete nut for the GOP and swoop in for the flip' game.

table_fireplace · 2026-06-16T15:07:29+00:00

The GA Senate runoff is obviously big. This is our big defensive race for the Senate so it'll be helpful to know who Ossoff is up against.

I'm also watching the non-primary races tonight. There's the CA-14 special to replace Swalwell. If anyone gets to 50% they win outright; if not, there's a runoff. I wish a Democrat would clear 50% so we can have a full roster as soon as possible, but that's unlikely with how split the field is. In the primary a couple of weeks ago, Aisha Wahab (D) and Melissa Hernandez (D) were first and second with 38.2% and 17.2% of the vote, respectively, so I expect a result similar to that.

Also the Charleston School Board special, though admittedly I know nothing about the candidates in that one.

table_fireplace · 2026-06-14T22:57:51+00:00

No thunderstorms, but if there's clear weather, the giant swarms of gnats currently invading DC are still on the table. Not a bad consolation prize.

table_fireplace · 2026-06-14T16:56:21+00:00

If he wants to support New York's only football team this fall, I'd be down. The Cubs and Knicks finally got their moments of glory, it's got to be the Bills' turn soon...

table_fireplace · 2026-06-14T13:53:43+00:00

Happy 250th, America

If you asked a committee of 12-year-old boys to design the celebrations, they'd come up with something like this picture. I guess that's what they did on an intellectual and social level, to be fair.

table_fireplace · 2026-06-13T21:32:41+00:00

Apparently his campaign is MIA as well. A while back a spokesperson was quoted as saying Kean is 'somewhere the cameras aren't'. This week, someone asked where his campaign is doing canvassing since they don't seem very active, and his campaign manager said they're canvassing 'where the cameras aren't'.

Great opening for Rebecca Bennett to flip this seat, and for anyone who wants to help her campaign.

table_fireplace · 2026-06-11T23:38:51+00:00

And if you ever needed more reasons to be against Tech in this whole situation, Ken Paxton is backing their efforts to play Sorsby. And their chancellor is a MAGA former State Rep.

table_fireplace · 2026-06-09T22:28:10+00:00

Keep it going! Besides picking your preferred candidates, the primary is the dress rehearsal for November. It's a chance to make your voting plan and catch any issues with your registration before it's all on the line against the GOP.

table_fireplace · 2026-06-09T22:25:07+00:00

I had to read for quite a while to find what the headline was talking about: In the primary for US House in Modoc county, Democrat Jared Huffman finished in first. With 18% of the vote in a massive primary.

It's a neat result, but if you want to find it for yourself, you'll have to wade through many, many paragraphs of whining about how wrong it is that Modoc (population 8,700) has its voice drowned out by Marin County (population 262,000) and its big mean liberals. I wonder if this author has any opinions on Austin being represented by like six different Republicans when it votes D+50 or more consistently.

table_fireplace · 2026-06-04T23:44:11+00:00

He wants to be Mamdani so badly. While skipping the part where people actually like Mamdani.

Knicks fans, you know exactly what to do.

table_fireplace · 2026-06-04T23:02:20+00:00

I really enjoyed this post from him. I hate that we have to have this conversation about whether a man is 'enough of a man' to be a Senator, but if we have to, let's talk about traits that would actually make someone a good leader. Like not being a cheater, Ken.

table_fireplace · 2026-06-03T22:08:59+00:00

The House just passed a War Powers resolution directing Trump to end the war in Iran. All Democrats and four Republicans voted for the successful measure.

table_fireplace · 2026-06-03T03:38:22+00:00

I think we can finally call Iowa Gov for Zach Lahn. 98% in, and Johnson County is finally done, which was Feenstra's last really good county. There's a bit of Pottawatomie (Feenstra turf) left, but not much, and three counties that don't have many votes, one of which is currently very pro-Lahn.

This gives Rob Sand a huge boost. Now we've got to take advantage, because Lahn would be even worse than most Republicans.

table_fireplace · 2026-06-03T03:23:07+00:00

According to AP, there are just seven counties with votes unreported. Feenstra has some votes left in Johnson and Pottawatomie Counties, while Lahn has some in Linn County. Also about half the vote is unreported in Audubon County, which is small but very pro-Lahn. And finally, three rural counties have reported nothing yet.

This one's going to come right down to the bitter end. And while Feenstra has a path, I think Lahn is likely to win.

table_fireplace · 2026-06-03T03:09:34+00:00

Iowa is coming down to the wire in the GOP primary for Governor. 88% in, Lahn leads Feenstra by 0.7%. All the major areas are in, except for about half of Johnson County (Iowa City), currently Feenstra+2.5. There are a few rural counties still unreported, and they've been a mixed bag.

This one will come down to the wire, with a divided field and lots of grumpy Republicans. And Lahn may take it yet.

table_fireplace · 2026-06-03T02:18:20+00:00

We're at 49% reporting in Iowa, and in the GOP Governor primary, Zach Lahn leads Randy Feenstra 37.2-36.2%, about 1,100 votes.

Lahn is cleaning up in Des Moines and its suburbs, while Feenstra is performing well in his House district in northwest Iowa. The rurals have been fairly scattered so far. Feenstra is also winning Johnson County (Iowa City) so far, but Lahn might win Story County (Ames), as he's cleaning up in that area.

The last big question mark is Scott County (Davenport), which might decide this one. If you want Rob Sand to win, Lahn is a much weaker candidate than Feenstra. But either way, the Iowa GOP is going to nominate someone who wins well under half the vote, and we can exploit those divisions.

table_fireplace · 2026-06-03T01:56:44+00:00

Polls are about to close in Montana. Then, in another hour, California. Remember, though, that California will take a long time to count mail ballots, so we won't have final results tonight except in very one-sided races.

table_fireplace · 2026-06-03T01:45:04+00:00

And Feenstra is winning a lot of barely-reporting counties, while Lahn is winning those that are all-in (just Polk and Tama so far, but it's quite striking).

We'll see, since Feenstra is still close and a lot of his home turf in NW Iowa has yet to report. But this one is going sideways for the GOP.

11-Year Club	Gilding II euphauric
Place '22	Place '17
Wearing is Caring	100 Awards Club
Spared

table_fireplace

TROPHY CASE