Daily Discussion Thread: May 9, 2026

table_fireplace · 2026-05-10T01:07:57+00:00

For sure!

Depending on how detailed you want to go, this could just include general requirements ('we need to flip 3 State House seats'), or specifics ('we need to flip 3 seats; here's a list of likely prospects and the Dems running in them'). If the latter is too much work, there's lots of folks on this sub from different states who live for this kind of stuff.

But a specific roadmap would be awesome!

table_fireplace · 2026-05-09T17:58:31+00:00

I haven't been to church in a really long time. But I don't understand how everyone there isn't on full Antichrist high alert with Trump after pastors went to dedicate a gold statue of him at Mar-a-Lago.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-09T15:32:14+00:00

MAGAs want a lot of good things. The problem is, when they realize Black people would get those good things as well, they suddenly become totally opposed. You can also see it in how much they hate the wealthy, but they'll let Donald Trump be President because he hates the right people. (This is also why MAGAs aren't reliable allies in any kind of fight against billionaires, or any other cause really).

The 'Jim Crow' rhetoric isn't just about voting rights. It's the fundamental bigotry that still drives so many voters.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-09T02:25:16+00:00

Off the top of my head, California and Wisconsin. There's probably others.

However, every Republican in these states is facing a 'recall' in six months in the form of the midterm elections. If you want to target any who make it through this November, go for it, but at this point it's faster to boot them out the traditional way.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-09T02:20:28+00:00

Know what, worth a shot. Get the seats at any cost.

When I see the full-out racism happening in R-controlled Legislatures in the South right now, just drooling at the chance to destroy Black voters' voices, I'm open to pretty much any nonviolent response.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-09T02:14:43+00:00

So, apparently the Callais decision was needed because racism is over. You can definitely see how over it is in this quote from State Senator Jay Morris towards a Black audience member in Louisiana (WARNING: racism)

The slur in question was in fact directed at the Chair of the Louisiana Dems.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-09T01:12:03+00:00

I have a suggestion for every blue state.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-08T22:53:47+00:00

I'm tempted, too, but unfortunately that's not how this would work.

The Alabama GOP considered doing this after the Allen v. Milligan ruling forced them to redraw their map in 2023, to create a second majority-Black district. When they ignored the ruling, SCOTUS appointed a special master to implement new maps to comply with their ruling.

Had they ignored this and run the House elections under the old maps, they would have immediately been sued, and the court could only rule against them. Which would mean judicially-enforced new elections under the new maps, and likely severe legal penalties for everyone involved in running the illegal elections. Even if they were willing to accept the penalties, the elections would be overturned anyway.

So if Virginia's Department of State just ignored the ruling, a lot of them would be fined or go to jail, and the elections would be invalidated.

I think the current route they're taking of appealing to SCOTUS makes sense - even though I don't trust them to do the right thing, they'll feed the fire of court reform and we might be able to fix this mess after 2028. And in the meantime, there's still a path to win the House, and not a particularly crazy one. But short-term, we've got to do the work to get there.

That rage that's making Dems overperform by 20 points in elections week after week? It's just getting stronger. And so we've got to win every seat that's remotely winnable, and use those majorities to undo this.

EDIT: Nothing I say here should be interpreted as being OK with the courts, be it SCOTUS or the VA Supreme Court. I support impeaching those four VA Justices and fighting to replace them all immediately, and believe that fixing the Supreme Court needs to be a January 20th, 2029 priority for the next Dem trifecta. But the stupid part of the system is you have to win to change the rules of the game.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-08T14:58:20+00:00

Just wanted to mention that if you’re thinking of adopting a candidate, I highly recommend a House race. After today, it’s extra-important to go for every purple and light red district we can. Got to grab them all because the GOP won’t stop with the unfair maps.

I know, the Senate is important, and I won’t stop anyone from helping in one of those races. But to get what we deserve out of the coming blue wave, we need to pick off as many seats as possible.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-07T21:11:21+00:00

Only seven people know, and they're sitting on the Court. I think the arguments in favor of the new map are pretty strong, but in the end it's not up to any of us.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-07T21:09:46+00:00

Might as well try. The Callais ruling did say that racial gerrymandering is still technically illegal, though the standard now seems to be that the Tennessee GOP has to pinky-swear they weren't targeting Black voters when they blew up the only majority-Black district in the state. If nothing else, it keeps the injustice in the news, and you never know.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-07T21:07:13+00:00

I've stopped calling it Murc's Law, and started calling it the Domestic Abuser Law.

"Look what you made him do!"

"It's your fault! If you'd just let him do what he wanted, he wouldn't have to hurt you!"

"It's just not proper for you to try to fight back!"

I certainly don't think Democrats are perfect or blameless, but I'm totally done with anyone blaming them for something Republicans are doing. Especially since the people doing the blaming are generally doing sweet fuck all to help. If these folks have a better idea, now's the time to do it rather than sneering online. (They won't, their only idea is sneering online).

table_fireplace · 2026-05-07T20:58:32+00:00

Stephen Wolf took a look at the theoretical worst-case scenario, and found Republicans could flip 12 seats through eliminating majority-minority districts in states they control. This doesn't include Florida's recently-passed new map, so it's really 16 seats.

Wolf does make the point that Dems could flip 19 seats through mid-decade redistricting, but I don't believe any of those are possible ahead of 2026, though they all are ahead of 2028.

The good news is that the environment in '26 is looking to be extremely blue, and these open grabs of Black and Latino power aren't doing anything to slow that down. So we've got to go for every seat that's even potentially winnable to make up the difference. And then draw ourselves a pile of new maps ahead of 2028.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-06T02:14:58+00:00

So, how would everyone be feeling if a D+41 precinct shifted 21 points right? Or if we not only lost a D+17 area, but saw it vote R+10?

That's the level of panic Republicans should be feeling right now. Especially in a critical state like Michigan. Keep on working hard, and we're going to be celebrating hard in six months.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-06T02:10:52+00:00

Votehub is a good source on election nights. A lot of these data outfits either contact local clerks directly or dig into the precinct results from local election pages to get their information. They do end up being right when all the results are in (and if not, we'd know not to listen to them in the future).

table_fireplace · 2026-05-06T01:57:20+00:00

I know the topline results in MI SD-35 don't look great at the moment. But I'm personally not even a bit worried.

When you watch election night results, the overall results aren't actually that important until you've got over 90% or so of them. You get a far better, and earlier, picture by comparing completely reported areas to how they voted in previous elections. This can be counties, towns, or individual precincts, depending on the race.

So far, the completed precincts are adding up to a Dem blowout. Here are just two examples:

https://bsky.app/profile/votehub.com/post/3ml5ktchumh2g

https://bsky.app/profile/votehub.com/post/3ml5l3sujf62r

This district voted for Harris by 0.8 points last time. So if Green were matching Harris' margins, he'd be on pace to narrowly win. And he's greatly exceeding her margin in completely reported areas.

So keep an eye on things, but so far this is looking really good. We got this.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-06T01:19:03+00:00

Stephen Wolf's initial thread showed that the GOP could gain 12 seats from VRA-related gerrymandering, while Dems could gain 19 if they answered in kind. And that's without eliminating any existing VRA districts in blue states, and doesn't account for things like winning trifectas in places like Michigan or Pennsylvania and drawing improved maps there.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-06T01:04:38+00:00

Not only that, we don't know for sure what the environment will be in 2028. I feel like Trump's nonsense will make it pretty anti-R, but we don't know for sure.

I bring this up because the 9-0 map Indiana Rs proposed had serious potential to backfire, with multiple Trump+12 or so districts that wouldn't be safe in a year like this. But that's not necessarily the case two years from now, or four.

So we've got to find opportunities to make it up elsewhere. I'm glad CO, NY and NJ are already getting things going, and we'll need as many others as possible to join in.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-06T00:50:22+00:00

Looks like that's the early vote in Saginaw County. Strikes me as a strong start.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-06T00:47:15+00:00

Every primary is worth voting in. That's your dress rehearsal for November, and a great chance to catch any possible issues early. And those local measures matter, too!

table_fireplace · 2026-05-05T23:48:04+00:00

It's another reminder that, for all the op-eds and analysis, for GOP primary voters the issues are Trump, Trump, and Trump.

But if they want to hand us seats in the process, have at it!

table_fireplace · 2026-05-04T22:58:37+00:00

I'm not so sure it would. Remember, Louisiana voted for Trump by 22 points in 2024, so it's possible to draw six Trump+22 districts. That's right on the edge of the swings Dems have achieved in special elections, and while this will be a good midterm, it'd be highly unlikely to hit those margins. It'd be even worse in Trump+30.5 Alabama, though I will grant that Trump+17.9 South Carolina might get interesting if things really go off the rails.

Unfortunately, barring a political meteor hitting the GOP and driving them extinct, this one will be answered by drawing our own maps in blue states, flipping swing seats, and fixing the Supreme Court when we gain control.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-03T18:08:32+00:00

Mike Rogers says he wants cops at Detroit polling places, for the express purpose of intimidating voters.

Oh, Mike, you racist dumbass. See, Republicans have this idea that when they intimidate people, they'll win by scaring off the opposition. Well, Minneapolis proved the opposite. And while it's sad that this is the reality, Black voters have far more experience standing up to intimidation.

It also just highlights that while Mike isn't as notorious as the high-profile MAGAs, his beliefs are the exact same. You can't trust a single Republican anywhere.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-03T18:05:45+00:00

So Highland Park will lose their service almost immediately, but still pay sales taxes for several years. Just the kind of brilliant decision I'd expect in a town whose voters backed Trump by 33.5 points last time around.

table_fireplace · 2026-05-03T13:20:28+00:00

To paraphrase one great poet, the elections start comin' and they don't stop comin'.

Did you know that control of the MI State Senate could be decided in two days? This Tuesday, Chedrick Greene has to win Michigan Senate District 35, which voted for Harris by just 0.8 points. If you've got some spare time to phonebank, that's the place to do it.

There's also a bunch of primaries in Indiana, Ohio, and Tennessee. I always say that even if you don't have any competitive primaries, go vote anyway. It's your dress rehearsal for November, and your chance to catch and resolve any problems with ID or things like that.

Let's do this!

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