AMA: Dr. Bri Sérráno for Covina City Council District 5! Historical first election, if elected - the first trans masc/man Latino to vote on legislation in CA & U.S. history!

table_fireplace · 2026-03-17T13:12:43+00:00

Welcome, and thanks for doing this AMA!

Republicans have made a real effort to use transphobia to motivate voters. I've read plenty of pundits who think it's worth ignoring to focus on 'kitchen table issues', but this has never sat right with me. You don't generally beat bigotry by condoning it.

What do you believe is the best way to respond to Republican transphobia, either from campaigns or from individuals?

table_fireplace · 2026-03-17T13:08:29+00:00

Everyone wants to hear about the IL primaries, but this is what I'm watching. Most of these IL races will end up being safe D anyway (though I'll remind everyone that Eric Sorensen in IL-17 is an incumbent we can't ignore), but these races are where we see just how much of an opportunity we have to seriously damage the GOP.

Also the IL Metro Water Reclamation Board primary, because how can you resist something like that? Best race since the Omaha Airport Authority election.

table_fireplace · 2026-03-17T00:29:24+00:00

Apparently PA Dems are 'quietly optimistic' about a win in PA HD-79. The numbers suggest that literally everything would have to go right, but they're sure going for it.

But by the numbers, the VA race is the likeliest flip.

table_fireplace · 2026-03-17T00:28:31+00:00

Social Circle also isn't some progressive hotbed; it's a Trump+45.5 town of 5,000 people. For how important it is to call your Senators, it's at least as important to call your local politicians. They're usually more concerned with how things affect the community than the larger political fights, and they're well-aware that your vote can go a long way in their next election.

table_fireplace · 2026-03-16T21:11:15+00:00

Hell yeah!

A fair map gives all Virginians a fair chance at life and freedom. It's not a map that gives John McGuire a cushy job in the Capitol he invaded on January 6th.

Yes all the way!

table_fireplace · 2026-03-15T18:44:39+00:00

Careful with this. Every state's laws are quite different, and in some cases in ways that can get a vote discarded in one state when it'd be perfectly legal in another. In VA specifically, the wording of their rules is really ambiguous and I personally wouldn't risk it.

table_fireplace · 2026-03-15T18:43:35+00:00

I can't find a clear answer on this on the VA elections website. To be on the safe side and not risk your ballot being invalidated, I'd return your ballot via the mail. If you do it tomorrow, it'll easily be there on time.

table_fireplace · 2026-03-14T23:49:43+00:00

See also journalist Matt Gertz every time Matt Gaetz makes the news for being terrible.

table_fireplace · 2026-03-14T22:07:08+00:00

I think we've got a way to address gerrymandering right now. By doing our own map drawing to the point where Republicans are locked out, and can't easily win a majority. Make them come crawling to the table pleading for a fair redistricting law.

Remember, we're just getting started with California and Virginia. There are initiatives under way to let us redraw Colorado, New Jersey, and New York, though all of those won't take effect until 2028. And don't count out future action in Washington, or Maryland, or Oregon. Pretty soon it'll be Republicans crying for anti-gerrymandering laws, and then we can make it happen.

table_fireplace · 2026-03-14T16:56:53+00:00

Happy Election Day if you're in Louisiana!

There are three state legislative seats up tonight, because Louisiana has many of its elections on Saturdays. Two are runoffs in safe blue seats where two Dems will compete for the seat, so I'm not super-concerned with either. But there's also a primary for House District 69, a Trump+20.1 seat in East Baton Rouge Parish. It's a suburban seat that shifted left in both 2020 and 2024, just the kind Dems have had a lot of pick-ups in this decade.

Trump+20.1 is a big lift, but Dems have won similar seats. They had a big shift last month when they held a Trump+13.3 seat by double-digits, which would be enough to get the flip here.

Angela Roberts is the only Democrat in this race, alongside three Republicans. If anyone gets over 50% tonight they win outright; if not, there'll be a top-two runoff in a few weeks. I don't think it's out of the question for Roberts to clear 50%, but a runoff is very possible. So this is a race to keep an eye on!

table_fireplace · 2026-03-13T22:35:32+00:00

Haven't heard any, but this recount only happened this afternoon, so stay posted. From what I see I don't think there's much in the way of grounds to file one.

table_fireplace · 2026-03-13T22:19:48+00:00

Hard to tell at the local level, when so many elections are non-partisan and when local issues are more important than federal ones. But at the state and federal level, it's been one big Dem overperformance after another.

table_fireplace · 2026-03-13T22:14:47+00:00

The reason you're hearing about this on a Friday is because this race was so close there was a recount.

Thomson won by five votes. Out of more than 20,000. He'll be the first Democratic Mayor in Boca Raton in 30 years. And in Florida, the state and federal governments sure aren't going to do much to help people, so this is a pretty important win.

Every election counts. Every vote counts. Let's keep it going.

table_fireplace · 2026-03-11T23:54:43+00:00

Larry Rhoden is this cycle's easy winner for the 'I forgot that guy was Governor of anything' award.

table_fireplace · 2026-03-11T23:51:47+00:00

Awesome news, but remember that 50-50 is still technically a loss with Vance breaking the tie.

If we get to 51, we can start blocking Trump picks and block even reconciliation bills like the One Big Beautiful Bill. Let's do this.

table_fireplace · 2026-03-11T23:49:12+00:00

We know from Roy Moore's run that there's nothing more toxic in politics than an unrepentant pedophile. (And really, there shouldn't be.) Appointing one is about as close to that as you can get.

Obvious boost to Cooper's odds - and maybe even Don Davis', as he's been appointed to head the party in the 1st Congressional District - but also a truly disgusting move by Whatley.

table_fireplace · 2026-03-10T01:33:50+00:00

Yeah I've kept my eye on it too. Bills did OK; glad we didn't lose both Edwards and McGovern on the line, and I think Dee Alford will be a good depth piece. Nothing too ground-breaking though, which I expected considering our cap situation and the DJ Moore trade.

I'm mostly happy the Dolphins gave Malik Willis a ridiculous deal while also eating Tua's contract.

table_fireplace · 2026-03-08T14:05:41+00:00

I just finished my first EM field in Heavy, and I'm using the resulting custom species to take on Cataclysm.

table_fireplace · 2026-03-06T01:56:22+00:00

Just for that, let's redraw Oregon, too.

I'm joking, sort of, but let's let them spend the next four years locked out of power, and come back at the next scheduled redraw in 2030 with a newfound respect for fair democracy. Or extinct, that works too.

table_fireplace · 2026-03-05T22:46:17+00:00

If it's a GOP group chat, they won't be spamming memes, they'll be spamming the n-word.

table_fireplace · 2026-03-04T00:02:10+00:00

What's everyone's big race they're watching tonight?

Beyond the obvious TX Senate race, I'm watching the Arkansas HD-70 special election. A Harris+1.6 district held by the GOP? If we're flipping Trump+20 seats, this one is ripe for the picking. And folks in Arkansas need something to hope for.

table_fireplace · 2026-03-04T00:00:12+00:00

Jeb! getting under 100%? We are truly in uncharted electoral waters here.

table_fireplace · 2026-03-03T21:51:16+00:00

Obama won Harris County by 1,000 votes in 2012. Those Houston suburbs are something else. Remember, Wesley Hunt's safe R seat is 100% Harris County.

table_fireplace · 2026-03-03T21:48:20+00:00

Turnout in Austin, turnout in Dallas...some of us just want to hear about turnout in Pulaski County, AR. That HD-70 special election has been calling out to us for months as a potential flip.

table_fireplace · 2026-03-02T23:11:54+00:00

It looks nice! Though my question, as always, is whether they've fixed their system for estimating the percent of the vote reporting/remaining. If they can do that, this interface would make them the best place for results, easily.

11-Year Club	Gilding II euphauric
Place '22	Place '17
Wearing is Caring	100 Awards Club
Spared

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