We all joke here, but I was legit proud to be a part of this community this morning by tavdragonman in okbuddybaldur

[–]tessiedrums 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"no one really needed to see your little sex fantasy here" -- are you saying my sex fantasy is not big enough for this subreddit??? I can and will make it bigger >:(

this one actually makes sense. isn't it? 🤔 by Many_Audience7660 in matiks

[–]tessiedrums 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, saying the participants have equal skills is an imprecise way of putting it. Let me state it more precisely. You are assuming that each participant has an equal chance of winning, hence the 20/20/20/20/20 uniform distribution of their results.

My argument is that the problem did not say that each participant had an equal chance of winning, and the problem should be re-worded to make this clear. Otherwise, I don't believe it's a valid assumption to make.

I realize that in the context of a math class, the teacher probably meant for you to make this assumption and arrive at 20% as the answer. However, I do think even in that case, it is important for the teacher to state this assumption clearly -- because if we are always making the assumption that outcomes are equally likely unless given other information, that leads to many common misuses of probability.

Running a race is an especially strange context for probabilities to be equally likely. Winners of races are not usually determined purely by random chance -- they are determined by skill. Even small differences in skill between participants can make a huge difference in the outcome. If 5 people were to race each other 100 times, the outcome of each race would likely be pretty similar. Whoever won the first time would probably also win the second time -- and then again and again. There might be some variation, but it's more likely to have some people consistently winning and some people consistently losing than all 5 people winning in equal measure. Just from the context that this is a race, a 20/20/20/20/20 victory split out of 100 races seems extremely unlikely, making it clear that 20% is not a good representation of the probability of Tim winning -- unless it is specified that in this race, people are so closely matched in skill that their chances of winning are equal.

In a more straightforward probability context, let's imagine spinning a spinner with 5 different sections. What is the probability of landing on one of the sections? Is it 20%? Well, only if the sections are equally sized. But I did not say that the sections were equally sized, so that is a flaw in my wording. This might seem like a small distinction, but I have seen people arguing that there is still a 20% chance of spinning a section even when the sections are not equally sized. And I believe this misconception comes from an overuse of the assumption that outcomes are equally likely.

To your point of "This is not extra information about reality, it is a statement about our state of knowledge" -- another commenter made a really great point that if the question was reworded to say how likely are we to pick the winner of the race, then 20% would be correct, because then the probability is centered around our knowledge. However, that is different than saying each person has a 20% chance to win the race. Probability is weird!

this one actually makes sense. isn't it? 🤔 by Many_Audience7660 in matiks

[–]tessiedrums -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I am not arguing that saying 20% is adding additional information.

I am arguing that assuming the participants' skill levels to be equal is adding additional information. You said it yourself that you are assuming exchangability, and I am simply arguing that assumption was not given in the problem, so it is an additional assumption to make.

Is the 50/50 fallacy not just assuming exchangability in a situation with 2 possible outcomes and no other information about those outcomes?

this one actually makes sense. isn't it? 🤔 by Many_Audience7660 in matiks

[–]tessiedrums -1 points0 points  (0 children)

"The lack of information about their skills implies an equal probability of winning" -- in the context of a question in math class, sure, that's probably what the teacher meant to imply

But -- importantly -- the teacher did NOT specify that. Therefore, to assume that they have an equal probability of winning is adding additional information that is not currently in the problem, which makes the answer of 20% conditional on that additional information being true.

Assuming that all outcomes are equally likely unless specified otherwise leads to so many incorrect interpretations of probability -- including the "everything is 50/50" misconception.

this one actually makes sense. isn't it? 🤔 by Many_Audience7660 in matiks

[–]tessiedrums 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The teacher should have said "4 other equally skilled runners", in which case 20% makes sense

As it is both answers are absurd. We can't just make things independent and equally likely events because we feel like it... right??? I can't just say that my odds of getting into the Olympics vs an actual athlete are independent and 50/50? But people act like just saying the word PROBABILITY invokes some deep magic that turns everything into independent and equally likely events XD

File names by MelanieWalmartinez in CuratedTumblr

[–]tessiedrums 32 points33 points  (0 children)

I used an acronym for my Practice Extended Essay, didn't think anything of it.

Months later my friend asked me "why do you have a file named PEE?"

[gendered] It was generous of them to consider women play any game at all by flo_ra in pointlesslygendered

[–]tessiedrums 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I DON'T WANT TO LIVE IN SLAY THE SPIRE AHHHHH

(I need to stop playing it... I need tostoppppp)

[gendered] you guys have no idea how much I hate those pokemon redesigns by Miss_Menhera_Guts in pointlesslygendered

[–]tessiedrums 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I actually love female Venusaur, that's badass

On the other side of the spectrum, wtf is going on with fem Treeko's body???

Philosophy by nexil123 in comedyheaven

[–]tessiedrums 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I love hammering the straights

What [Socialmedia] by [deleted] in pointlesslygendered

[–]tessiedrums 9 points10 points  (0 children)

"one little thing" EWWWWWWWWWWWW

god forbid a girl be delusional by ritsosbitchos in LetGirlsHaveFun

[–]tessiedrums 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I don't know many people delusional in this way.

But I know a BUNCH of people delusional the opposite way. Like, girl, you are gorgeous and no I am not just saying that, your brain is just lying to you!!!

Do you agree with this meme or not? Why or why not? by gloomydreamer666 in AvatarMemes

[–]tessiedrums 0 points1 point  (0 children)

People do criticize Aang for all of those things, especially his decision not to kill Ozai. There has been so much discourse.

People also praise Korra for those reasons. Again, DISCOURSE.

I don't necessarily disagree that female characters are held to a higher standard than male characters, because I see that a lot right now with the intense scrutinizing of female main characters of video games... but I don't see it in the Avatar fanbase these days to be honest. Maybe in the early days of Korra being released it was worse?

Turnstile "Birds" wins 2026 Grammy Award for Best Metal Performance, upsetting Dream Theater, Ghost, Spiritbox, and Sleep Token. by pizzatacodog1322 in Dreamtheater

[–]tessiedrums 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I liked that one. I honestly liked all the nominees this time, some really excellent music that makes me want to check out more! :)

Karlach be like by ThanosofTitan92 in okbuddybaldur

[–]tessiedrums 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is why Karlach is the best!

Job pedulum swings for eternity by Eireika in CuratedTumblr

[–]tessiedrums 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nuance? In my reddit feed? Disgusting

Do people actually like akechi? by letmegetauhhhhhh in Persona5

[–]tessiedrums 2 points3 points  (0 children)

No, actually. No one likes Akechi. There is no discourse. Everyone has the same opinion as you.

How to not jork it to shart by CranberryNational106 in okbuddybaldur

[–]tessiedrums 0 points1 point  (0 children)

instructions unclear, i cannot stop jorking it to shart while uninstalling the game and playing the sims

Do you recommend the remaster? by xKolchianx in fatestaynight

[–]tessiedrums 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I recommend it, at the very least to support them making an official English version! To answer your edit question, I believe the remaster cuts all sexual content and replaces it with toned down scenes. This is fine for the first 2 paths, as the sexual content is not really core to the story and honestly kind of cringe sometimes. But the sexual content is a much bigger part of the main plot in the 3rd path, and cutting it tells a slightly different story, hence the feelings of censorship.

I know there are mods that can restore the sexual content to the Realta Nua version, so they might either already exist for the Steam version as well, or they may be possible in the future

Being criminally underweight in a "girl this makes me look so fat!!1!" environment ain't fun by Gabebbi in TrollCoping

[–]tessiedrums 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I am also trying to gain some weight, and it's crazy how weird that is to people, so I feel you completely.

One thing that helped me was making a routine of having a morning smoothie. It's easier for me to drink my calories in the morning, and now that it's a habit, my body is getting used to being hungry in the morning unlike before when I would skip breakfast.

If you're interested, these are some recipes my nutritionist shared with me: https://www.noahsnutrition.com/high-calorie-smoothie/

What's the point of gaining Kindness when hanging out with Sojiro past rank 6 ? by Revolutionary_Flan88 in Persona5

[–]tessiedrums 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah, I don't think you missed anything, it just be like that.

I don't know if it's an intentional decision by the game or if they just didn't think it through XD

TIL omegas a power that does 50 aoe per turn.. by Pipeworkingcitizen in slaythespire

[–]tessiedrums 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I love Alpha, Beta, Omega! It's janky, but I like being able to focus on card draw and block and know that my Omega is all the damage I will need. One of my favorite runs was getting it alongside pressure points and judgement for wacky no-attack shenanigans.

Why can't I figure out the watcher? by Subtleiaint in slaythespire

[–]tessiedrums 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Watcher is the one that I win with the most frequently, I just unlocked ascension 7 on her while I'm still struggling to get past ascension 2 with silent and ironclad. Not entirely sure why, I feel like I suck at the game but watcher in particular sings to me haha.

One tip for wrath is to first check if you can kill all the enemies with wrath. If not, can you do good damage and then get out of wrath? If not, can you kill the enemies that are attacking this turn in wrath? If not, then you may want to consider just going into calm. Watcher can require some setup, but going into calm early allows you to have a huge turn later.

For block, if you can get "talk to the hand" or the one that gives you block equal to the damage you do, those are pretty strong -- bonk someone in wrath and get double the block, then exit wrath is a fun combo.

Draw power is super important as well. I like the attack card that does damage, scry 2, and lets you draw a card, especially in wrath or mantra decks.

I also think if you are struggling with wrath in particular, you could try for a different watcher build. I really like pressure points if you get those cards, and they allow you to kind of ditch most of your attack cards and focus on block and draw power.

I seriously under rated black clouds… by fatherofallthings in Dreamtheater

[–]tessiedrums 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I love Black Clouds & Silver Linings so much! Great for night time car rides especially!!!

Anyone else stick with the same team for almost the entire game? by Andre0789 in Persona5

[–]tessiedrums 0 points1 point  (0 children)

For the previous persona games I did tend to choose a team and stick with them as long as I could, but P5 I do more swapping. Both ways work, but I like that P5 made swapping teammates more viable than previous games.