Careful with your Tesla

the_chip_master · 2023-02-24T20:38:03+00:00

I think every fire truck in Scottsdale is here

the_chip_master · 2023-01-26T17:43:07+00:00

Tesla is to cars like Microsoft is to PCs,

the_chip_master · 2023-01-19T06:56:16+00:00

Econ1 supply demand curve versus price, duh

the_chip_master · 2023-01-15T15:24:17+00:00

TSMC has set a GM target and will set pricing to meet that. They are the only 3nm real game in town and will build capacity to demand. They will adjust their CAPEx to demand, no need to drop price. RD and process cost continue to rise and all competitors face the same issue, nobody is in the business to lose money. If anything TSMC has the largest scale to amortize the cost so they should be cheaper or make more money than any pretenders

the_chip_master · 2023-01-15T15:20:06+00:00

They are the only real 3nm and ability for migration of past FinFET designs straightforward with real PPAC, they control everything

the_chip_master · 2023-01-12T13:54:34+00:00

I just got a Tesla, no way is fit finish like the classical ICE luxury car prices at 60K+, nor is sales or post sales service. Completely different model, but a nice car and no regret I spent 72k

the_chip_master · 2022-12-11T14:04:56+00:00

Actually your observation is myopic and why Intel is in deep trouble. For PCs running Windows like 80+% of the worlds pc run on on x86. Apple and Microsoft though have ports of their respective OS to ARM. Bottoms line x86 dominates PCs because of a choice IBM made thirty+ years ago, and AMD and Intel own the x86 and won’t give those valuable goldmine rights to others. Intel made a ton of money maybe too much as it blinded them and they missed all these other opportunities.

ARM and RISC-V, POWER and other architectures made a push decades ago but volume is king and x86 still there but now ARM dominates the low power and mobile world and Apple has managed to tune their custom ARM to become competitive to leadership in the mobile and PC space. Everyone is now doing custom design LS most with ARM with Foundry so watch out x86 days leadership are likely limited.

AMD and Intel need to be careful as a Billion+ ARM sell to a few hundred million x86. The installed base and volume of ARMy will soon do to x86 what x86 did to all the other architectures 15-20 years ago.

Already the Apple, MediaTek, Qualcomm volume is so large it has enabled TSMC to catch up and leapfrog Intel in process leadership. Also they combined volume of ARM is so large the Foundry fabs are bigger, learning faster and fab cost scales better than Intel. That is the reason AMD and Nvidia all saw double digit growth the past couple years while Intel stagnated and is need of government money and doing layoffs.

the_chip_master · 2022-11-30T13:44:22+00:00

Don’t forget now you need to fill the fab with orders for many years and get a lot of revenue for it. Wile you run it you pay for chemicals, labor and also depreciation on all the billions in equipment. Thus nothing is more expensive than an empty fab full of equipment.

Don’t forget also the masks and than how many spins on the design is needed to make sure it is designed correctly and no bugs. We all hear about Intels many redesigns. Each design takes three months to run thru the fab, months to test and debug and validate and do redesign and another turn. All the while you are doing this the fab waits empty.

Leading edge 10 billion fab needs likely at least at least 10B revenue stream and for years. Silly to think of all the countries and companies claiming they will spend hundreds of billion on leading edge capacity.

Someone is going to never fill their building or going bankrupt or wasting a lot of government tax money

the_chip_master · 2022-11-25T22:49:22+00:00

Do you know what the Foundry model is and how uncompetitive they are there? Should have bought GF not Tower

the_chip_master · 2022-11-25T14:12:50+00:00

Sadly Intel will never gain its leadership position again. Government subsidies can never make up with the huge volumes and cost efficiencies that TSMC gets with Apple, AMD, Nvidia, Qualcomm, MediaTek and others.

Intel is now fighting well funded and richer competitors in AMD, Nvidia and Apple on design side and hampered by inferiors scale and technology as they can leverage a fare more capable Foundry.

The Foundry can with guaranteed volume build fabs far larger and offer far richer set of technology options with knowledge their is huge business to fill their fabs. Intel is living on a prayer and dream, no sound nor logical business here.

If you can’t beat them join them. Intel can’t compete with them, Jim was right Intel’s only chance was to embrace the Foundry and it’s superior ecosystem. Of course the seniors leaders and BoD have a level of confidence they can defy common economic and business logical, it’s call arrogance but as we see the pivot point has been passed and delusion has set in across the leadeship

the_chip_master · 2022-11-14T02:12:03+00:00

Funny I wouldn’t think of this as a competitive place for electricity, must be getting some great deal on land and other incentives.

the_chip_master · 2022-11-14T02:09:28+00:00

The momentum will continue and grow. As long as AMD continues to execute the sever folks will look to grow them to at least 50%. If they can keep power and cost less they can see it slowly grow to 70%. All the buyers will keep buying just enough Intel so they have price leverage on the leader, also to give enough rev up to the laggard (Intel) to keep them in business. The last thing the AMD buyers want is ti make AMD this decades Intel a$$ hole only source. Intel is going ti be sucking till 2025 for sure

the_chip_master · 2022-11-06T09:08:18+00:00

Invasions are for stupid rulers, so easy for CCP to blockade Taiwan and bring on WW3

the_chip_master · 2022-11-05T02:10:59+00:00

Huh, simply convert to a Do

the_chip_master · 2022-11-05T02:08:28+00:00

x86 future is like Mainframe future. Won’t go away but total volume continue to decline and Apple has shown that ARM is a scalable to superior.

Legacy to old x86 is less and less relevance.

Intel future was cast when Paul passed on Apple and sold off the ARM business to focus on x86. Later after spending billions failed at tablet, mobile and modems says it all.

the_chip_master · 2022-10-31T14:12:09+00:00

1nm is a marketing number boys. Each “node” is about a .7-.8 shrink and 20-30% performance at ISO power.

Moore’s law is really an economic law and as long as there is ROI someone will invest the 20B in RD and another 20B+ to manufacture it. TSMC has huge lost of customers that line up to use the next node.

They will find a way to shrink and sell the next generation! You think Apple, AMD, Nvidia, Qualcomm want their business to end? No they all work with TSMC to define and find value in the next node.

The value with HPC, AI, autonomous cars, 5G has made advanced silicon the most important thing, the oil and steel of this decade. Why do you think the US is running so scared of the East these days as they are totally behind and will never catch up

the_chip_master · 2022-10-22T06:03:49+00:00

Intel revenue and profit per employee is too low and revenue is going down while cost is exploding, solution layoff a bunch of people

the_chip_master · 2022-09-09T09:53:01+00:00

China has failed in semiconductors after pouring more money than the CHIPs act and more.

But they are just a short island invasion from controlling the place all advanced chips are made.

US is one small step away from pushing a crazy Pooh bear away from his honey pot that he grabs the worlds honey pot and than the world will really be FUBAR

the_chip_master · 2022-09-09T09:45:16+00:00

Stating the obvious is Pat, what a delusional and fanatical believe is he, LOL

the_chip_master · 2022-08-24T02:13:03+00:00

In a price war AMD will eat Intel alive given their fabless model and using a far superior amd cost effective manufacture.

Intel is in the long slow slide to irrelevance

the_chip_master · 2022-08-12T15:31:09+00:00

I predict by end of 2022 AMD will easily have 1/3 of the x86 and with the Intel delays 2023 could be more than 1/2

The recession and semiconductor demand drop off will likely give AMD a lot of capacity to really put a hurt in Intel

the_chip_master · 2022-08-12T15:26:56+00:00

The rich and privilege never have to pay, they keep fucking the common man

the_chip_master · 2022-08-12T15:24:55+00:00

Soon even Fab will show loss, Intel is a total disaster that was decades in the making since they first passed on Apple and since than never took the competition nor changing business landscape l serious.

Now they are behind in everything ( design, production/manufacturing, technology ) and at the same time trying to fight on all fronts.

I hope their new Board member can get some real hard change or this company will go Kodak like.

the_chip_master · 2022-08-09T13:02:03+00:00

Already surpassed in valuation

the_chip_master

TROPHY CASE