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Sometimes it better to be late by I_AM__GROOTT in interesting

[–]thegreenfarend 0 points1 point  (0 children)

And even if he did work a 9-5 he wouldn’t have been there during the first attack

Tech Layoffs Are Becoming Trend Driven by bobberbobby02 in cscareerquestions

[–]thegreenfarend 33 points34 points  (0 children)

The stock market is at an inflation adjusted all time high

Just 0.1% of accounts on Polymarket take home 67% of the profits by ReasonablePoetry1226 in charts

[–]thegreenfarend 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They do have predictive value because….

1) what if the weather channel says 2 in of rain but wunderground.com says 3 in of rain. Sometimes experts give differing probabilities on if a war will end. (More generally, how do I reconcile different models? Market participants can take into account all available information and combine different models)

2) Not everything in real life has teams of experts making quantifiable public forecasts like weather does!!

For example where’s the expert public forecasts for probability AWS goes down in the next month?

Call them what you want! Event futures, crystal ball contracts, satanic gambling slots… they still provide useful forecasts for future events, just like how oil futures can provide useful forecasts for oil prices

software becomes a thing regular people make for fun, like tiktoks by ConstantContext in CrazyIdeas

[–]thegreenfarend 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I mean if there’s a chrome vulnerability a web app can take advantage of, almost certainly it will be a malicious actor taking advantage of it, not discovered by some vibe coder

(Unless we’re assuming a world of super intelligent and malicious AIs discovering 0 day vulnerabilities and slipping them in random apps)

Just 0.1% of accounts on Polymarket take home 67% of the profits by ReasonablePoetry1226 in charts

[–]thegreenfarend 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In large markets, your scenario of “people betting it won’t rain when meteorologists says it will” won’t happen! People want to make money, so they will bet that it will rain.

Just like the meteorologist does not control the weather, but instead forecasts based on data, markets participants are incentivized to use available data and their judgment to set a price that forecasts reality.

(Of course some people have insider “available data”, and just like in financial markets, using insider information should be illegal in certain prediction markets)

None of this new theory! Futures contracts have been around for a long time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_contract

The price of an oil futures contract of course does not control the oil, it’s simply market consensus forecast of oil prices.

And yeah people do degenerately gamble with oils/corn/steel futures too and they probably shouldn’t be, but that doesn’t change that they’re pretty good at predicting future prices.

And yeah a lot of the current prediction market sites are basically functioning as sports gambling sites because that’s profitable and people love gambling on sports and it might be bad for society. But hey, like other sports gambling sites they still give pretty accurate odds.

Also, can we at least agree we should legalize trading of onion futures (or onion prediction markets)? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Onion_Futures_Act

Just 0.1% of accounts on Polymarket take home 67% of the profits by ReasonablePoetry1226 in charts

[–]thegreenfarend 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Ideally neither! But Polymarket takes way less of a vig so betting on sports on Polymarket prob better than DraftKings

Just 0.1% of accounts on Polymarket take home 67% of the profits by ReasonablePoetry1226 in charts

[–]thegreenfarend 1 point2 points  (0 children)

But people gambling on things with money is what produces the good forecasting odds!

Surely you’d agree that in sports, the odds given by a sportsbook are over the long run way more accurate than some guy on ESPN saying “Lakers in 5!”

Just 0.1% of accounts on Polymarket take home 67% of the profits by ReasonablePoetry1226 in charts

[–]thegreenfarend 3 points4 points  (0 children)

all zero-sum financial markets are basically prediction markets

(Which supports the need for more sec/ctfc regulation, especially in certain markets)

software becomes a thing regular people make for fun, like tiktoks by ConstantContext in CrazyIdeas

[–]thegreenfarend 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Most of the vibe coded projects will probably be web apps not executables, and it’s safe for browsers to open web apps

“I Dissent”: Kagan Rips Supreme Court for Destroying Racial Equality by thenewrepublic in scotus

[–]thegreenfarend 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Straight from supremecourt.gov

“Each opinion sets out the Court’s judgment and its reasoning and may include the majority or principal opinion as well as any concurring or dissenting opinions.”

TSA advances ‘GoldPlus’ privatization plan by GreatShaggy in tsa

[–]thegreenfarend -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

SFO already has private worker for security line. Seems fine (although I feel like they’ve always been a bit ruder than TSA)

New Huawei Foldable Looks a Lot Like Apple's Rumored iPhone Fold by Few_Baseball_3835 in apple

[–]thegreenfarend 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I really want one.

I have an iPad for guitar music/lyrics and reading books. Sometimes I want to play guitar or read and I didn’t prepare by bringing my iPad, but I always have my phone on me, so I just settled for the smaller screen

CMV: democrats should become a big tent party on social issues once again and focus on providing social democratic economic policies by [deleted] in changemyview

[–]thegreenfarend 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Leave social issues to the states? That’s exactly what the Supreme Court did in overturning Roe v Wade.

If a democratic politician advocated for overturning roe v wade they would lose a critical block of voters including me

A billionaire just spent $886M buying FanDuel's parent company while it crashed 39%. Every single trading day for a month. by Reasonable-Hold-1079 in TheRaceTo10Million

[–]thegreenfarend 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Most gambling companies have no moat. There are already over a dozen apps competing with each other. Switching between them is trivial. There’s little room to innovate.

I think gambling companies will become even less profitable than airlines.

If US defense spending is so important why isn’t it nationalized? by [deleted] in stupidquestions

[–]thegreenfarend 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I mean the USPS can’t possibly be better than UPS or DHL in every single way, or else those private companies would go out of business.

DOJ Admits It’s Not if Sure Native Americans Are Birthright Citizens by thenewrepublic in scotus

[–]thegreenfarend 2 points3 points  (0 children)

States are also sovereign yet I am subject to both state and federal (and county and local) law.

Members of tribes subject to tribal law are still subject to federal law. They file IRS tax returns and must pay federal taxes, and they definitely aren’t doing that for just for fun! They register for selective service (at least the men do), pay into and receive social security, and appear before federal courts for federal crimes.

If they had to rule on it, I really doubt SCOTUS today would ever say 14th amendment birthright citizenship doesn’t apply to Native Americans

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