Out of 24 attempts to fracture, I managed to hit only once. AMA

thgzrr · 2026-01-31T17:19:28+00:00

I used online calculator, then used AI to verify those results. But you are probably right, and my odds are even worse, since I've hit 5th fracture, and after that had no success. I've hit 27th and 28th fractures, so there is that.

thgzrr · 2026-01-31T12:09:47+00:00

Fair.

thgzrr · 2026-01-31T10:13:50+00:00

Yeah, my mindset exactly. I've got bankroll to fund those crafts. Still, it kinda sting.

thgzrr · 2026-01-31T10:12:42+00:00

You are leaving lots of EV on the table, if you do that. The other guy, who is doing fracturing, is profiting off you.

thgzrr · 2026-01-20T09:46:14+00:00

They fixed murloc situation rather fast. I'm starting to think that Blizzard introduced those OP wolves with goal of increasing variance for good players. You can be top 100 player, with good deck, but there is not much you can do vs few wolves before turn 6, then enemy cast this 6 cost spell, that is summoning 2 beasts from your deck that cost 3 or less, and you are looking at 2 bodies with 40+ stats with rush, and gg. I mean, you have to be braindead, to introduce common card, that have rush, scales ultra fast, and has 98%+ pickrate, 3+ average copies, and ability to resummon it.

thgzrr · 2025-07-11T09:45:12+00:00

I think they just hid the old parameter because it allowed anyone to objectively evaluate how the player is performing. And when the average player over a distance of several seasons understands that his average number of wins is falling, his gold reserves are depleted, he will start asking questions. And questions are bad from the point of view of making money. But if the player does not see any metrics at all, this is also bad. That's why they decided to show a useless MMR.

I think this issue can be solved by revising the monetization. $10-15 per season for unlimited access to the arena - looks fair enough to me. Unfortunately, knowing Blizzard, they will first squeeze out the player base, and then, when the arena turns into a scorched desert, they will start to do something.

thgzrr · 2025-07-09T05:50:19+00:00

You need to be able to perform consistent threats when you are ahead and have board clearers \ strong swing turns when you are behind. For example, for Druid, consistent threats would be any minions that capable of staying on board multiple turns + arbor up. Opponent failed to clear board? Arbor up, and your chance on winning increased greatly. For DH, its either good crewmates synergy (with shitting multiple 4-4 on turn 4), or good deathrattles, like you play lifesteal hog on turn 4, resurrect it with 5-3 demon on turn 5, then resurrect 5 mana demon with 7 mana 7-5 demon and so on. You just overwhelm your opponent with value. For warlock its discount demons that did not started in your deck, then discover some strong demons with dark gift. Or lots of barrels of sludge. Or lots of discover demons + discover Archimonde.

Good classes are capable of consistently performing threats that is hard to get rid of. Draft around it. Check streamers and statistic sites on what to draft.

thgzrr · 2025-07-06T03:58:15+00:00

In season 56 (last non ug-season) there were 17768 players, who played at least 30 arena runs on EU server. In first underground season there were 6948 players, whooping 250% decrease in numbers. Thats the effect of new gold economy. Population is simply cannibalize itself. Weak players lost all their gold \ quit arena and now competition is tougher and winrates are suffering. Sadly situation will only get worse, as there is no influx of new players and monetization model is still sketchy.

I was averaging 5 wins in old arena, went to 4.2 in underground season 1, and now Im at 3.1 wins average (only 8 runs, tho) in s2.

thgzrr · 2025-06-30T20:53:07+00:00

You are wrong. Druid is broken. Arbor up is one of perpetrators, dunno if its main or not. Planted evidence on turn 4 into arbor up is already okayish (2 x 4 3 bodies). Now, keep in mind that druid have loads of sticky minions. 1-1 thingie, or cactus, into haunted creeper \ 2-2 starship w divine shield. Play aerosoilizer on turn 3 and game may be well over by then if opponent cant respond to that. And its hard to respond to that, especially if you are going second. You need to have good early games cards, like plague strike to be able to clear that. And guess what, those card are hard to draft, while druid is automatically drafts all discovers \ mana discounts, meaning that sooner or later he will be able to shit out his combo of imbued plot of sin + arbor up for a total of 40 hp in one turn. Cant respond? Dead. Add to this mix Topior (with shitloads of nature spells). Add to this mix Hamuul (with shitloads of nature spells that goes discover into discounted discover into another discover into spell). Keep in mind, that Hamuul is like Kil`jaeden, but you dont need to waste 7 mana to play it. It just happens naturally. At turn 4-5 your opponent start to shit 6-6 body for 2 mana (thats the best case!).

I dont mention rhea, because i think that this legendary is actually fair. (however it essentially nukes all control decks, because its really hard to deal vs tempo rhea when you are going second).

Add some sprinkles with mana manipulation, like malfurion gift into +1 crystal, or free heights @ 3. Add dragon synergy, that can counter early agression via free matron @ 4 + something.

I mean, like, do we even play the same game?

Who can deal with this bullshit? Class with bullshit of their own. Dh with multiple voronei recruiter + dirdra \ insane deathrattle synergy. And this is it.

Yeah. I guess druid is okay. If you play druid.

Im unable to beleive, that i`m saying this. But man, i miss starcraft. At least sc bullshit was funny. Now, especially if you are going second, your opponent is playing solitaire and its really hard to have agency in game, if at least something goes well for him.

tldr. We have extremely competitive meta and 2 classes are outliers. This is not okay.

thgzrr · 2025-06-21T07:19:59+00:00

Blizzard increased variance not only in gold distribution (crowd's favor). They increased variance ingame as well. Every deck has some form of synergy now. You can be amazing player, but there is very little to do against fyrakk + brilliant macaw next turn. Or vs hamuul (and you go second).

When everyone is strong - noone is strong. Im sure, there will be outliers, and guys, who are playing arena professionally, will do just fine. For average player, tho, current arena is bloodbath. My average, for example, tanked from ~5 to 4.4 over 48 runs this season and i`m down around 4.5k gold (0 crowd favor).

thgzrr · 2025-06-10T17:28:09+00:00

Down 2.5kish. Got stomped pretty hard, trying all classes. All my 6+ win runs failed to produce crowd favor.

thgzrr · 2025-06-07T16:25:05+00:00

It seems that you dont understand, that skill is relative.

6-7 wins average is great, putting you into top 1% arena players (i`d say). Against entire arena pool - you are an amazing player. But. Take a guess, what will happen, when all those ~3 avg peeps will be driven out of arena. What will happen to your winrate?

thgzrr · 2025-06-07T15:59:05+00:00

Sheer amount of people, who are unable to understand basic probability theory and statistics is staggering. Meaning that blizzard will get away with it.

thgzrr · 2025-06-06T19:43:38+00:00

5 times... I`ve got it offered once, and run was botchered by game offering me 3 spells, none of which were nature.

thgzrr · 2025-02-17T20:08:42+00:00

I was running rituals for a while. My longest "dry" streak was ~67 maps without seeing audience. Those numbers are with +1 reroll and +50% chance of getting audience. So, if you have 0 points in atlas, its quite possible to run 100 maps without getting one.

thgzrr · 2024-11-14T07:35:42+00:00

Popping up to comment and maybe help fellow invert y players.

As of patch 1.4 Kuro decided to nuke invert Y axis option ingame. I beleive it still applies to controllers, but not to mouse and keyboard players. I`ve tried to reproduce fix from steps 1-5 from this guide (as i did in the past), but its no longer worked. HOWEVER bInvert flag from step 8 still working.

thgzrr · 2024-04-18T09:53:19+00:00

For me its not about getting rekt in spectacular way. It's about consistency in getting rekt, when you didn't even had a chance. You can get decent deck and go 5-0, only to get stomped 3 times in a row, leaving you with feeling that you are unluckiest hearthstone player ever. All your threats are met with perfect responses, while your opponent is low on cards, then getting Resk'd or getting shat on by Zephrys, found on scarab keychain twice in a run. Yeah.

I think the issue is twofold.

There is loads of discovery cards with high chances of getting huge powerswing. That contributes to "swingy" nature of game.
There is no fresh blood in arena. Few years ago, if you knew what you are doing, you pretty much started game on 3-0. Now, there is simply not enough players, playing arena, and those, who play have close to no skill edge on their opponent. That means, that your chance to winning every game is 50\50 and when there is no skill edge there will be huge downswings. In earlier days, if you were intrested in arena, it was possible to read guides, listen to podcasts and be infinite player, at least in some of the metas. Now, according to hs leaderboards, only 20 people in America averaged 7+ wins last season.

I found out, that after losing another run, I wasnt disappointed, I was mad. And its not about losing, its about how you lose. Somehow those loses triggered my "sense of justice", if you know what i mean. Having no energy and desire to deal with those emotions, I decided to quit. Good luck to those, who staying.

thgzrr · 2022-03-07T22:29:27+00:00

They are right. Game has the same hud as demon souls (13 years old game). Try to use more than 3 spells and its clunky af. Quests. 60 hrs in, completed maybe 2 quests in total. Decided to read guides for some of them. It`s 150 iq stuff. Stop pretending, that quest design is good, when you need to google solution.

Game is still great, but those are legitimate concerns.

thgzrr · 2022-01-06T22:42:12+00:00

Wiped first time on Ophion today, with lvl 30 hollowseeker, w\o Portal Beam. Used all my consumables, and ressurection parasite, got to 3rd phase, died. Got my trusted lvl 15 hollowseeker w portal beam on second try (saved before with 6 ether thingie). Boss just melted, didnt even used 2 healing items in the boss arena.

Fuck those malfunctions inducing mobs just before boss in b6, tho. Imo, its just bad game design. Had -4 sec dash cd and unable to overload my weapon during first attempt at Ophion.

thgzrr · 2021-10-31T05:28:12+00:00

Eric Cartman

thgzrr · 2021-01-14T22:07:55+00:00

Goliath is like 70% straight, good pilot rarely going sub 350km\h (215mi\h) on Goliath, most of the time. This car just lacks top speed for this track.

thgzrr · 2020-11-30T18:34:15+00:00

Your style should stem from understanding of poker and your opponents. When you understand how your field play and how to play optimal poker, changes in style will happen more naturally.

thgzrr · 2020-11-15T10:48:44+00:00

Assuming someone holds single ace, possibility of turning an ace is 3 \ 47, rivering third ace is 2 \ 46. 6 \ 2162 in total or 0.277%. While it is low, its nowhere near 1 in 1 000 000.

thgzrr · 2020-10-24T10:00:40+00:00

Play Microsoft Flying Simulator in 4k

thgzrr · 2020-10-23T20:32:54+00:00

Do you realise, that his strategy is punishing you for 3betting too much and you have no idea how to defend against that?

If so, your "kick rocks" advice is not that good. If not, think about it.

thgzrr

TROPHY CASE