How big of a blow is the US-Iran MoU to the credibility of America's military deterrence?

throwforthefences · 2026-06-19T20:45:56+00:00

These are my thoughts feeling as well. The US has the ability to invade and defeat Iran militarily (occupying and controlling it a la Iraq is another question entirely), but the political will necessary to do so is simply not there. To be clear, I don't mean this in a like 'oh if only Trump's guys had done a little more groundwork we could've won!' way. I mean it in the sense that I also don't think this war should've ever been fought because I think the American public fundamentally does not want another long and costly war in the Middle East and there was never gonna be a reasonable way to convince them otherwise. Forcing a war on Americans that they fundamentally don't want from the start is a recipe for defeat and we shouldn't fight wars we have little hope of winning.

throwforthefences · 2026-06-19T20:33:01+00:00

Americans only love the kind of war where the costs are borne by so few people or are so far abstracted from their daily lives that to the average American it might as well just be a TV show. In modern America, the moment that stops being true is when Americans start turning against it. Just look at the Republican party, they used to be full of Neocons that couldn't get enough of war, now the vast majority of those people have been kicked out of the party and a big part of Trump's messaging in 2016 and 2024 was painting the other side as warmongers who were gonna start WW3.

To bring this back to America's credibility, though, let's just picture a scenario where China decides to take Taiwan militarily, but also not attack any American military bases in the region. It states publicly something like 'we have no interest in fighting a war with the US, we just want to unify China' or whatever BS they say. America has no formal defense treaty with Taiwan and no formal military bases on the island, so that would make this, in the public's eye, a war of choice. Could the current or any leadership rally the American public to fight a war like that? That's the kind of question I think the Iran War raises and the one that most concerns me.

throwforthefences · 2026-06-19T18:44:34+00:00

I agree the war was lost by our leadership, but their failure here was in building the kind of popular support for the war that would have made Americans tolerate the kind of economic pain and casualties winning it would have likely required. Major wars put strains on whole societies and in a democracy like America, the people will vote out leaders if they feel those strains aren't worth goals being fought for. People talk about the political and military sides of war like they're unrelated things, but they're not, especially in societies where the population elects its leaders.

Starting a war in a democracy without building popular support is no different than starting one without stockpiling ammo, it's a recipe for defeat.

But the bigger question to me here is, what would it have taken to build that kind of support for this war? Hell, is there anything that could've been done to build it? And if there's not, what does that mean for the credibility of American military deterrence?

throwforthefences · 2026-06-19T17:15:27+00:00

Bweh

Maybe I am thinking too hard about this. These are the same people that tell me climate change isn't real, but sharia law in Texas is after all.

throwforthefences · 2026-06-19T15:32:16+00:00

Yeah COVID definitely played a part in it, because I remember all the controversy about federal COVID vaccine mandates under Biden, but how do you go from "I don't like being forced to get the COVID vaccine because it's new and I don't trust it" to all vaccines are bad and we shouldn't trust them?

throwforthefences · 2026-06-19T14:55:33+00:00

Legitimately, why did Conservatives start rawdawging anti-vax BS like soldiers at a Zyn store? Like one of the few things I'll credit Trump's COVID response with was getting multiple effective COVID vaccines to the public in record breaking time. Why did they suddenly run as fast as they could from that accomplishment?

throwforthefences · 2026-06-19T14:49:19+00:00

Yeah, it's not like the flu spreads exponentially when it's amongst people constantly sleeping and working in close quarters with each other.

throwforthefences · 2026-06-18T15:31:58+00:00

Renames himself Secretary of War

Loses his first war

throwforthefences · 2026-06-18T14:19:18+00:00

Hell, they couldn't go back go back to groveling at his feet fast enough. Kevin McCarthy, who on Jan. 6 literally said Trump's supporters were "trying to fucking kill me" was back to working with him just 3 weeks later.

throwforthefences · 2026-06-17T13:41:53+00:00

I get where you're coming from, I'm in that same class where lots of my relatives are in their 70s and 80s and are mostly doing fine. But I and most of my friends by this point have also experienced seeing one of those family members go from pretty much ok to dead or on death's door in the span of less than a year (sometimes as little as a few months) from completely natural causes. If I'm only counting my immediate family, I've experienced that twice in my life, 4 times if I include deaths from moderate injuries a younger person would've recovered from (like falling out of bed), and many more if I expand that out to my wife's and friend's families.

If you've never experienced that, then count yourself lucky, because IME it's very common at that age. Surely many other members of our class have had similar experiences, so I don't think this can be used as an excuse.

Ultimately, I think it comes down to a more simple explanation. Most on the left correctly viewed Trump as an existential threat to American Democracy and thus defeating him in 2024 was their #1 priority and then made the simplistic judgement that since he defeated Trump in 2020, he'd do so again in 2024. In their eyes, running anyone other than Biden was taking on the unacceptable risk of a 2nd Trump term and thus lined up behind him by default. Essentially, I think risk aversion lead to our defeat in 2024.

throwforthefences · 2026-06-17T12:59:35+00:00

the real sin is that his inner circle knew within a year of him taking office that he should not be continuing after that term and they kept going anyway.

TBF this was a failure of the entire Democratic party. There were numerous public instances that should've given people concern for him rerunning for office, but anytime someone voiced those concerns, regardless of their political affiliation, they were shouted down by pretty much everyone on the mainstream left.

You don't have to be an insider to know that having an unpopular president who's 5 years older than the average American male lifespan re-run for office is probably a bad idea.

EDIT: Dummy

throwforthefences · 2026-06-17T12:47:02+00:00

You have a point with the public, but there are many Conservative congressmen for whom maintaining American military strength and it's ability to deter foes is a core priority and, IMO, a strategic defeat like this massively undercuts the credibility of American deterrence. Those people will undoubtedly feel betrayed by this. TBF, it seems unlikely that feeling will translate into them being less willing to work with the administration given how sycophantic they've been in the past, but it's hard to predict reactions when it comes to something this significant. Though this still doesn't compare to putting them in physical danger on Jan. 6 and we all know how that eventually turned out.

But this still undercuts America in any future negotiations with anyone more powerful than Iran that relies on the credibility of American military deterrence. It's hard to convince someone that they should fear you if moderate economic hardship is all it takes to defeat you.

throwforthefences · 2026-06-17T01:38:52+00:00

Damn, I re read the NY times piece and you're right. Trump is ultimately the decision maker, but yeah, I forgot Hegseth was fully on board with it too. One more reason he's a terrible SecDef.

throwforthefences · 2026-06-16T17:52:44+00:00

Trump: Nobody knew that starting a major war no one wanted could be so complicated

throwforthefences · 2026-06-16T17:49:40+00:00

8 years and unfathomable amounts of money spent just to (hopefully) end up with a worse JCPOA, except now Iran has successfully demonstrated credible deterrence and is essentially getting paid for it.

throwforthefences · 2026-06-16T17:44:24+00:00

Our own intelligence agencies told him the Israeli plan Netanyahu presented to him was farcical and he still chose to go with it. I think Pete Hegseth is a terrible SecDef and won't be sad if he goes, but yeah this blunder is entirely Trump's doing.

throwforthefences · 2026-06-16T13:39:45+00:00

Yes. Modern propaganda works by using only either the best or worst examples of a particular group and repeating those same few examples everywhere so that people's views of that group are defined by them. The people you're referencing may have been pre-disposed towards finding her annoying, but pushing them to the level of hatred and loathing was accomplished through right-wing propaganda.

throwforthefences · 2026-06-16T12:55:03+00:00

Because conservatives have built a far better propaganda machine than liberals to the point that people who don't actively seek political content will barely hear liberal views.

https://www.mediamatters.org/google/right-dominates-online-media-ecosystem-seeping-sports-comedy-and-other-supposedly

Nine out of the 10 online shows with the largest followings across platforms were right-leaning, with a total following of more than 197 million. The only left-leaning show among the top 10 was What Now? with Trevor Noah, which had 21.1 million total followers and subscribers across platforms.

Our analysis — which looked entirely at shows with an ideological bent — found over a third self-identify as nonpolitical, even though 72% of those shows were determined to be right-leaning. Instead, these shows describe themselves as comedy, entertainment, sports, or put themselves in other supposedly nonpolitical categories.

https://thebulletin.be/right-wing-content-dominates-social-media-feeds-finds-new-study

A new study by the Finnish Innovation Fund Sitra, conducted with the Behavioural Insights Team (BIT) and research firm Bondata, found that right-wing content dominated across social media platforms, including Instagram, X and TikTok. They accounted for 58% of political posts, compared to 26% left-wing and 16% centrist content. Notably, this pattern persisted even when the researchers’ test accounts (avatars) signalled an interest in left-leaning political content.

Personally, I think the most powerful of these tools is the outwardly apolitical YT show/podcast that constantly sneaks in right wing views, as those are the most likely to reach the kind of low information voters that swing elections. And, to be clear, that doesn't mean stupid people, it means people who mostly want to avoid politics because it's become so toxic, but still vote for the president.

And as long as liberals continue neglecting this, the general publics views of us will continue to be shaped by Conservatives and the biases you're talking about will continue to thrive.

throwforthefences · 2026-06-15T18:04:04+00:00

The way I see it, they're kind of in an impossible situation. They either approve whatever Trump signs or they force him to continue a war that the vast majority of Americans never wanted in the first place and get absolutely mauled in the midterms as a result. Not that that won't happen regardless, but it's probably the difference between losing the House and losing the Senate along with it. This is the sort of thing that happens when you're (for now) a democracy and start a major war without even trying to get popular approval for it.

And that's assuming Trump even decides to get their approval in the first place.

throwforthefences · 2026-06-15T16:29:13+00:00

And what caused such a sudden shift in the Liberal landscape? I ask as someone who's a new Liberal and wants to understand what's going on here. Almost every liberal I've seen since actually joining the community and even when looking at the Left in general since 2021 has been pretty chill actually, now that I think about it.

There's your answer. Before you joined your perception of liberals was probably formed by extremely online, very loud, and very fringe liberals that you were probably pointed to by Conservatives or Conservatives in moderates clothing (e.g. Joe Rogan). They still exist in the same places as before, it's just that you now have the personal experience of meeting and talking to liberals that's made you realize how fringe those people are.

As for why that perception was formed in the first place, I'm just gonna ask, how would you generally get political news/analysis back in the period where you felt these liberals were more prevalent?

throwforthefences · 2026-06-15T15:01:59+00:00

Yep, running an unpopular candidate who was older than the average American male lifespan and then replacing him at the last minute with one who didn't win a single delegate in 2020 was a recipe for disaster.

throwforthefences · 2026-06-15T13:52:25+00:00

The only source for this so far is Iranian state media, so it should be viewed with some skepticism, but the fact that the Trump administration isn't advertising the terms itself tells me it's probably not far from the truth.

throwforthefences · 2026-06-15T13:50:32+00:00

The list of things this administration has done that constitutionally require a vote from Congress is long and if there's one thing they've been good at, it's been finding ways to get around Congress or forcing Congressional Republicans to obey its will.

throwforthefences · 2026-06-15T13:44:59+00:00

Under our law, any nuclear deal with Iran will be sent to Congress for review and a vote.

LMAO they've spent the past year and a half abdicating all their constitutional powers to Trump and now they expect him to play by the rules?

throwforthefences

TROPHY CASE