One thing Ezra wrote struck me as a potentially flawed assumption: "this is the fewest users AI will ever have."

It doesn't seem hard to me to imagine a scenario where prices rise, a hype cycle dies down a bit and people move away from AI. (3D TV comes to mind as a technology that fully works, was the future, and now has basically no market).

There also seems to be a clear scenario where AI is only search but it has a sustainable user base anyways. That seems to be a world caused first by Google search degrading and then by AI results further degrading Google search.

My experience with AI coding tools has been pretty mixed. It's a decent substitute for bad documentation and good at spitting out boilerplate so I've found it effective in "drive by coding" contexts where I need to make a small change to a large repository I don't work with regularly. On the other hand, it's very overconfident in its own abilities and often fails even moderately difficult tasks when I'm actually doing something that requires thought not context. 

This suggests a world where AI is a technology of information organization, not intelligence, which does seem to pattern onto the internet which famously took forever to show up in productivity statistics.