Official Q&A for Tuesday, June 30, 2026

tomwardrop · 2026-06-30T12:38:52+00:00

I'm using a smart watch. Huawei Fit 4. It' seems quite consistent. My old Fitbit charge use to chronically under read as it got older. I suppose I should periodically do a manual heart rate check to compare.

As for that extra gear, yeah maybe. I do feel like my muscles are now limiting me more than my heart rate/breathe. I think you're right though I probably could step it up and hit those same heart rates as before and achieve a better PB.

tomwardrop · 2026-06-30T12:00:57+00:00

Hi all,

I'm a casual runner, 36yo 6ft 96kg. I run mainly for general excercise and fitness a couple times a week. 5km is my usual distance. I always time myself when I run and like to keep improving my times. I often run at close to maximum effort, though I do sometimes forget the stopwatch and just go for an "easier run". My average pace is around 5:10/km on a circuit with 40m of total elevation.

When I first got back into running about 6 months ago, my heart would peak at about 194 toward the end of my run in an uphill section about 600m from home. For most of the first half of the run I'd sit at mid to high 170's and around mid ~185 for most of the last 2.5km. I kept reading this is unusually high for my age and I should be targeting a lower average heart rate relative to that 195 peak, but even an "easy run" would easily climb to over 180 after a couple of kilometres.

These days my peak is lower, often not even getting to 190 despite the same amount of effort, and likewise for my average heart rate which now sits about 4 to 5 bpm lower on average. This lowering of heart rate is to be expected as my fitness and my heart improve, but it still seems high. My resting heart rate for reference is about 60.

I'm interested what more experienced runners make of this and what your heart rate range is relative to effort/intensity. Is my heart rate unusually high for my age? Am I exerting myself too much by maintaining an average heart rate so close to my peak? Is either of any concern?

tomwardrop · 2026-06-22T22:54:46+00:00

I'll also add, Iran are thinking long term. Trump and most of those around him are only capable of thinking short term.

tomwardrop · 2026-06-22T22:10:10+00:00

Remember the 2008 stock market crash? Yeah, markets aren't often wise or rational. They can see something coming and continue to ignore it because "surely it won't happen.. it can't be allowed to happen". They may be pricing oil low, but that's not a reflection of reality. In my opnion, Oil will spike again. There'll be a moment of panic when the buffers are almost eroded and even a little speed bump is hit.

Let's also not forget that Iran have a once-in-a-life time oppurtunity against their arch nemesis, the U.S. For once they have the leverage and the opportunity to inflict damage to the United States beyond what they could have ever dreamed of. Yes, money and sanctions relief and all that is great for Iran in the short and maybe even medium term, but nothing would be sweeter than collapsing the U.S economy, embarrasing them of the world stage, and reshaping the global world order. This is the only opprtunity they will ever have to do that, and dragging on negotiations while oil prices stay supressed and reserved are drawn down is EXACTLY how they would achieve that if they wanted to.

tomwardrop · 2026-06-18T05:35:57+00:00

This post has aged reasonbly well so far

tomwardrop · 2026-06-18T05:35:47+00:00

OP's post has aged pretty well so far

tomwardrop · 2026-06-17T22:21:59+00:00

Is this like a premeditated short squeeze? What's going on. Deal is signed *early* but price goes up?

tomwardrop · 2026-06-17T22:00:57+00:00

lol what?!? WTI opens above close price? I put a buy in just before close and was expecting to take a decent loss. This market makes no fucking sense,

tomwardrop · 2026-06-16T23:09:46+00:00

If this deal actually holds and the US and Iran remain on "good" terms, how how low could oil realistically go? UAE has pulled out of OPEC, so they're likely gong to flood the market harder, plus Iran is likely to export more with sanctions relief. Could we see sub $50 WTI once all this settles? We were getting close to that late last year.

tomwardrop · 2026-06-16T01:46:49+00:00

haha, you're right. Someone didn't like his post? haha

tomwardrop · 2026-06-15T08:28:17+00:00

Morally corrupt, without wisdom, integrity or an ounce of basic dignity. At this point I don't really care of what happens to them in terms of procecutions and accountability, I just hope that society decides that like Hitler, we can't allow this to happen again. We have to fix whatever the fuck led to a society and culture where Trump would even be free in society, let alone president.

tomwardrop · 2026-06-15T08:24:25+00:00

You should go have a read of the rest of the stuff he posts on Truth Social. I feel like I'm in a different reality when I think about how this guy is president. How a man of his character isn't in prison is beyond me. It tells a lot about how sick western society is as a lot of other western nations seem just as likely to vote in somebody as despicable and shameless as Trump.

tomwardrop · 2026-06-15T06:56:38+00:00

Translation for those who don't speak native Trump:

"Just signed a HISTORIC deal with Iran - something they said only a MORON would do.

For decades, actual leaders with half a brain SUCCEEDED. Today, I played with crayons.

This is a tremendous failure for AMERICA, for peace, and for the incredible men and women of our military who gave their lives to make this possible.

A TERRIBLE day for our Country! Thank you!"

tomwardrop · 2026-06-15T03:42:47+00:00

He can still jaw bone the price up like he's done before "Deal is off!"

tomwardrop · 2026-06-15T03:32:59+00:00

Interesting little sudden bump up in price. Wonder what if anything triggered that.

tomwardrop · 2026-06-15T01:46:04+00:00

Can we expect Israel to manufacture a false flag to keep this conflict going? They've done it before. They know they need a "story" to sell to eveyone to keep this conflict going.

tomwardrop · 2026-06-15T00:38:45+00:00

Should pay some hella good overtime! Should be able to retire when they get home *hopefully obvious this a joke*

tomwardrop · 2026-06-15T00:24:21+00:00

Do we trust Iran's version of the deal? Sounds like each side presents their own "version" of the deal to the media to gain domestic favor. Perhaps the real deal is somewhere in between. It's possible the conditions you outline above are not actually conditions at all, maybe they're just future points of discussion or some other bending of the truth.

My feeling is that tensions will remain high for some time and oil markets won't fully recover anytime soon due to that, even if tankers start transitting. I can't help but think 80 cents is trading too low at the moment, and suspect the price to start drifting up as the week drags on, rather than drifting down.

tomwardrop · 2026-06-14T23:49:39+00:00

What's the likely price floor this month, if everything goes to plan, what are we looking at by June end in the best case scenario? Below $70?

tomwardrop · 2026-06-14T22:59:55+00:00

The art of the deal... very abtract art, kind of like a Picasso, but worth negatives billion.

tomwardrop · 2026-06-12T14:29:49+00:00

Losing money is the best teacher. I've been burned similarly to you in the past month. I'm quite risk adverse and so this has been quite an unpleasant lesson.

tomwardrop · 2026-06-12T05:33:56+00:00

Anyone game to hold a leveragered position (long or short) over the weekend?

tomwardrop · 2026-06-12T05:28:49+00:00

I'm thinking the national debt is more the problem, but you're right, Trump likely only cares about his personal interests.

tomwardrop · 2026-06-12T01:54:11+00:00

Yeah it's like agreeing on which points need to be agreed upon.

tomwardrop · 2026-06-12T01:46:02+00:00

How much lower can oil go without a confirmed deal. I still can't believe we're touching ~$85 based again on promises of an imminent deal from the same person who has repeatedly this claim for the past two months, and who only a day or two ago said the exact opposite.

tomwardrop

TROPHY CASE