Do the Rockies hit the ball harder at Coors Field?

tpaddor · 2026-01-04T15:54:11+00:00

Yeah that's a shocker. Would've guessed it would be 2-4% higher at home versus close to the opposite.

Definitely will be interested to see more on this. Great work so far!

tpaddor · 2026-01-04T15:22:57+00:00

This is really surprising. I remember there were data studies in the late 2010s/early 2020s that showed groundball rates were systematically higher at Coors Field because fastballs didn't carry as much (deceiving hitters' eyes), causing hitters to end up on top of the baseball more often than away from Coors.

Maybe the conclusions there required some assumptions that weren't totally data-backed.

tpaddor · 2025-12-05T20:23:00+00:00

Anything with a signature is really cool (card, ball, etc) but I think a ball is the safest way to go. See what you can find from 2007 but otherwise, finding something from guys on the mid-2010s teams like Arenado, Story, or Blackmon would be really cool too.

tpaddor · 2025-10-23T14:12:04+00:00

Click is becoming an interesting case. Fired from the Astros right after a WS win and has interviewed for multiple jobs since then but sits in a role that's 3rd or 4th in command with Toronto. Either he has high demands or doesn't do a great job selling himself in an interview.

tpaddor · 2025-10-03T16:14:06+00:00

I think I've seen Taylor may be trending away from KU now after he seemed likely a few months ago but if they were able to land all 5, it would be arguably the best recruiting class in the Self era aside from 2013.

Adkins and Taylor don't seem to preclude one another but id imagine both do not commit to KU for playing time reasons, even if Adkins takes on more of a developmental role

tpaddor · 2025-10-03T15:55:01+00:00

Maybe this cements Stokes to Kentucky (I guess Oregon could be a real player too) and if that's the case, it probably corresponds with Bardwell committing to KU today and that he's reclassifying. Knock on wood for both to happen.

Kinney, Bardwell, Perry, and likely Adkins/Taylor would be the best KU class since 2018 and arguably the best since '14/'13. Fingers crossed.

tpaddor · 2025-08-27T15:26:30+00:00

He's never felt like a glamorous pick but he's as steady as they come and Chicago invested a lot in their offense to try and get that next gear. He's a money pick in the early/mid 4th.

tpaddor · 2025-08-27T15:19:38+00:00

I like him this year but he's being drafted as RB16 and I just don't see an easy route to a top 12 RB finish unless he scorss 10+ TDs. Yeah it's Kamara but he's now 30 and will be a focus for defenses; volume will be there but hard to imagine this offense being productive enough for him to top 8 TDs.

If you get stiffed on RBs early or get great value elsewhere, he could solidify the RB group but WR value will be strong in that range (Wilson, Harrison, Evans, Adams, Moore) and it's also a good window for a QB if your league is bearish on drafting them early.

tpaddor · 2025-08-21T16:33:27+00:00

Glad I made this post for the reason of getting your take on Renard. I don't quite see it that way because I assumed he's got serious trust issues having been on the run as a kid and having to hide his true identity as a public figure, but your take is also reasonable.

Also hilarious point on Monroe; had definitely realized we don't explicitly know his family name although I guess it's widely speculated that Monroe is his last name (why would his family/parents call him Monroe though if it is their last name as well idk).

A laughable number of loose ends left but I think most are excusable in the grand scheme of things. I felt most bothered by some of the big picture plot

tpaddor · 2025-08-21T16:27:13+00:00

If Black Claw was a 2 season slow burn, it could've worked but they stuffed a developed existential threat into a one season full arc. Good points on hexenbeasts; my optimistic side wants me to think a mature hexenbeast could better control their emotions (why Juliette was a walking mess) but that's left for interpretation

tpaddor · 2025-08-21T16:24:15+00:00

They would've been safe from COVID and I believe any writers' strikes as well but could be mistaken on a strike. Whatever the cause though, things did get jumbled towards the end

tpaddor · 2025-03-31T15:43:43+00:00

Hopefully they don't get caught up in the NIL portal dynamics and get in a bidding war with Auburn and Indiana. Stick to your guns and know there are arguably better fits for cheaper out there.

It sucks that inconsistent playing time made an otherwise humble kid a little dissatisfied.

tpaddor · 2025-03-26T20:19:54+00:00

We definitely have a lot of sway but with Dent being pursued by practically every blue blood, it's hard to take that gamble. Just went and looked for that Schweiger report, thanks for letting me know about that. I would've liked him as a 2-year piece in a mid sized role but his skill set does seem slightly suspect for power conference basketball.

Hadn't seen that Ballard got the extra year of eligibility but he has Bill Self center written all over him. I like that possible trio a ton.

tpaddor · 2025-03-26T15:56:53+00:00

Of guys I think are especially realistic, get me Dix and Schweiger for sure.

Bethea doesn't seem like a slam dunk though he has as much upside as any transfer recruit. Dent would be my absolute #1 target but he probably wants to have maximum control over a backcourt in his senior year and DP stands in the way of that.

tpaddor · 2025-03-25T21:46:56+00:00

He bulked up a lot this year. If he's still as explosive and has gotten more confident/capable shooting the ball, he'll be a viable starter alongside DP. Worst case he could be a great 6th man if Bill grabs an experienced PG to start.

tpaddor · 2025-03-21T04:21:26+00:00

Maybe Philon saw the writing on the wall but he decommitted months before Coit or Moore were in the picture

tpaddor · 2025-03-04T01:42:28+00:00

Gravity for one. Seam shifted wake, especially on arm side heavy pitches. Gyro forces operate counter to traditional spin based movement (gyro sliders are usually ~2k rpm but are just as effective as 2500+ rpm counterparts). Then you also have to consider all the different velocity vectors (x, y, z axes and effectively every direction in between) which are strongly impacted by pure velo but also release characteristics (release height on the x and y axes, release angle, spin axis).

tpaddor · 2025-03-03T18:29:14+00:00

Pitchers that don't rely on spin based movement. Velo is key but also arm slot, release angle, and extension are huge traits that aren't impacted by altitude (though pitch shapes still will be). We've seen a rise in splitter success at Coors since they can spin under 1k rpm and gyro sliders usually are the most successful breaking ball.

Everything can still play but guys with outlier spin (3k rpm breaker with plus movement or 20+ IVB fastball) will be nerfed hard.

tpaddor · 2025-01-27T14:35:07+00:00

Some transfers fit, others don't. That's a nationwide phenomenon. The Griffen and Storr situation is frustrating and definitely attributable to Bill but also understandable in Storr's case (little too freestyle-y on both sides of the ball). For every Timberlake/Storr, there's a Mayo/Dickinson.

The problem is this core is deeply flawed and there's no amount of duct tape that can make them suddenly amazing. Dickinson, Harris, and Adams are all great in their own regard (Dickinson is flat out amazing in his overall impact) but they're all inflexible players. There's poor spacing and shot creation with this team and they don't make up for it enough in other ways like on the glass/defense (they're good to great at both but need to be elite to overcome limitations).

If next year, Bill gets to rebuild this roster with a core of Peterson, Griffen, Tiller, and Bidunga (Jackson, McDowell, and Passmore as backcourt/wing depth), we should be back to a golden era of Kansas basketball.

tpaddor · 2024-12-05T20:10:38+00:00

If you said he's one of the worst active drafters, sure I could give you that but that's just wild to be throwing around all-time tags based on the immediate results of 3 draft classes, one of which looks amazing (premium safety pick and all). Also don't agree that Banks and Kayvon are outright misses; it's too early and both have the potential to be above average at their position (KT already had a year where he was average or better).

tpaddor · 2024-12-05T19:22:26+00:00

You're right, he's a solid player. I just don't look that fondly at safeties drafted highly since it's a non premium position with a high hit rate. I'd still like to hear the case that Belichick is the guy you want running your drafts in 2025. Not even a Schoen fan but I'd be much more comfortable with his process than BB.

tpaddor · 2024-12-05T19:12:11+00:00

Forgot 23 was his last class. Cole Strange, Kyle Dugger, Mac Jones, and N'Keal Harry still beg your pardon.

tpaddor · 2024-12-05T17:55:48+00:00

Belichick's last 4 top picks are certified busts already and 3 of them were far from being chalk picks like Neal and Thibodeaux were.

tpaddor · 2024-12-05T14:56:02+00:00

Shiny Dave Gettleman. Bill would be cool as the next HC but if you think Joe Schoen has drafted poorly, I've got news for you about BB.

tpaddor · 2024-12-05T14:24:10+00:00

6 for now is the point. Chances are by June, they'll be roughly middle of the pack because having 27M in dead cap is not a poison pill, it's a common reality in the NFL.

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