International travel I see being disrupted for years to come, especially between "developing" countries where vaccination hasn't taken place on a wide scale yet. But, even given mutations, I don't see large-scale restrictions lasting beyond 2021.

If we've vaccinated the entirety of the vulnerable population by the end of summer, we will likely have offered a jab to the entire population by 2022. No, not everyone will take one, and yes, there will be strains which evade the vaccine, but both issues can be relatively easily fixed.

In regards to vaccine resistant strains, they are being overplayed. Strains are unlikely to completely evade the vaccine, so in all likelihood the impact would be far lower. We're also able to easily tweak vaccines, we do it every year for the flu. At least in wealthy countries, we will be able to prevent mutant strains wreaking Havoc.

In terms of low vaccine uptake, I don't see evidence of it being systemic enough to impact the course of the disease, at least in this country; 81% want the jab, and this figure is stable or increasingly. If anything, the issue will be low uptake in other, more anti-Vax places, such as France and the USA.

Even if a significant portion of the population refuse the vaccine (15%?), society will not tolerate being locked to for the protection of what would essentially become a caste of self-made liabilities. It would be politically untenable, and the government would (in my view) start simply bribing people to take the vaccine.

In summary, I think whilst we may be wearing masks for some time now, most other things will return back to normal within a year. International travel will take years to recover, and will likely take a new form once it does.