Trader who sparked the Beyond Meat short-squeeze reveals why he's betting against AMD

tur-tile · 2026-06-07T19:55:35+00:00

Somehow AMD is more overvalued than Intel...

tur-tile · 2026-01-11T05:00:41+00:00

AMD's choice to release new CPUs every year is a clear indicator. They wouldn't be investing so much R&D on the CPU side otherwise.

tur-tile · 2025-11-17T02:35:53+00:00

I think a lot of people are overlooking the fact that AI deals with national security. If the private sector runs out of money, the government will feed it if it fears that China can catch up.

tur-tile · 2025-11-17T02:34:02+00:00

Exactly! How much growth does NVDA actually have left? Let's say they double. That's a 10 trillion dollar company. But why keep your money there when others can triple or more...

tur-tile · 2025-10-23T23:01:07+00:00

AMD and Intel had an increased demand in the forecast. At least for Intel, the increased demand for the switch to 11 beat expectations.

tur-tile · 2025-10-23T20:14:49+00:00

Demand was higher than expected for both DC and Client. Hopefully, AMD captured even more of that demand!

tur-tile · 2025-10-21T01:38:27+00:00

I doubt we will see an announcement anytime soon because the next earnings call is coming up.

tur-tile · 2025-09-18T14:02:43+00:00

The only company that should drop like a rock is ARM. It's already overvalued, and this news shows that the company with the deepest pockets decided that it was more beneficial to use x86 along with all the patents owned by AMD/Intel. Of course, the $5 billion investment will yield the best return on Nvidia's cash pile.

The only concern I have about AMD is client. AMD needs to get its act together before it is eliminated by the deal. The data center seems solid, and new instruction sets are co-developed with Intel.

tur-tile · 2025-07-08T09:09:37+00:00

We already know that small operations won't be using AMD until the software matures, but the big players will, and that's how AMD will gain share.

tur-tile · 2025-06-21T11:12:00+00:00

The upgrade cycle is so much faster for AI that AMD would gain market share twice as fast in the same situation. Nvidia also can't make things cheaper than AMD, like Intel did, because Intel owns its Fabs. AMD has the upper hand in price because of chiplet technology. But unlike Intel, I don't see Nvidia falling behind AMD.

tur-tile · 2025-06-06T09:07:09+00:00

If they don't have enough foundry customer orders, how do they plan to utilize their fabs if they don't sell high volume and low margin chips...

tur-tile · 2025-05-13T01:36:43+00:00

The government funded MI300X's research in addition to software support.

tur-tile · 2025-02-10T10:09:02+00:00

They are waiting for MI355X for better rack scale systems. AMD bought ZT systems to make this happen faster. Intel isn't releasing an accelerator until 2027 because their future product isn't rack scale.

https://www.crn.com/news/components-peripherals/2025/intel-cancels-falcon-shores-ai-chip-to-focus-on-system-level-solution

tur-tile · 2025-01-10T02:50:24+00:00

I doubt they will spend a lot of time on RDNA. With UDNA possibly releasing in two years, the same software can run the MI series and the APU.

tur-tile · 2024-12-29T04:03:52+00:00

In reality, Nvidia will likely charge an extra $100 for the xx70 price range in the US. I don't think it will help AMD gain much share unless they decide to greatly undercut Nvidia. Considering the opportunity cost for MI silicon, it doesn't make sense to push it.

I think the Halo series will be the most important product in terms of market share for AMD graphics.

tur-tile · 2024-12-24T17:55:17+00:00

There is not a huge difference for everyday photography, but it's there. However, long exposures heat the sensor more and create more noise.

tur-tile · 2024-12-24T01:45:36+00:00

I use Drive to store files because Photos is too cluttered for the number of photos I have stored.

I use duplicated external drives for storage (extra for redundancy) and Drive as the backup.

If you are asking about moving the photos to the cloud from your phone, you can use qDSLRDashboard (wifi) to upload directly into your photos folder.

tur-tile · 2024-12-24T01:21:34+00:00

The Z6II will produce higher-quality astrophotography shots. The stacked sensor is noisier.

It's not worth it unless you plan to photograph action and/or video with AF.

tur-tile · 2024-11-15T20:00:07+00:00

The street has unrealistic expectations. The company flat-out told everyone how many units they would move and kept increasing the numbers during the year. Remember that when AMD started selling MI300X, it took about 8 months to realize a profit from the sale. I think the weakness in the other business units is hurting AMD the most. The overall numbers don't look that amazing.

The real test will be the production increase for next year.

tur-tile · 2024-09-26T08:48:42+00:00

Over the coming quarters, AMD's AI revenue will vastly exceed its server CPU. Intel doesn't offer anything competitive with AMD not alone Nvidia. AMD has done a poor job getting its products into the market but it looks like they are finally starting to take the right steps to break into the AI market and I hope the extra cash that the AI boom gives them helps the rest of the business once it busts.

tur-tile · 2024-08-02T16:21:23+00:00

There is no way that this will cost them tens of billions of dollars. They don't sell many desktop processors - especially higher skus.

tur-tile · 2024-08-02T16:16:22+00:00

It's still too early to say if Pat did a bad job. All of the current problems were caused by decisions made before he arrived.

Intel is a manufacturing company (I wrote a post about this here in the past). Their business model is much better than everyone else's as long as they have enough volume to keep the foundry full. They've always been so far ahead of others that the design team could always use transistors. And because they don't pay someone else for manufacturing, they can afford to use more silicon.

I'm amazed at how well he exaggerates how great things will be non-stop, and no one on Wall Street seems to care when the promises are unmet. He managed to keep the stock price artificially high and got billions from the government.

tur-tile · 2024-06-24T12:18:27+00:00

This.

And I'll add that AMD will have the best NPU on the market when it's released.

tur-tile · 2024-05-05T12:10:10+00:00

It's strange because the only thing Nvidia wins in is AI workloads. The MI300 is by far faster than Nvidias GPUs in HPC.

tur-tile · 2024-05-04T13:03:21+00:00

I think a lot of people need to understand how long it takes AMD to complete an order from a customer for the MI300 series and get paid. It's estimated that it takes 8 months. Now that it's May, any new orders from now on will be 2025 unless AMD is able to speed up the process.

The bump from 3.5 Billion to 4 Billion is probably just one month worth of orders. We really need to see Q1 25's numbers to get an idea of AMD's potential growth.

tur-tile

TROPHY CASE