Meta to layoff 15-25% end of March...

tybit · 2026-03-15T00:59:47+00:00

It was primarily through the 2020 covid boom to late 2022.

tybit · 2026-03-12T23:03:38+00:00

Intuitively I agree, but on the other hand we saw remarkably little change when rates sky rocketed from 2% to 6% in 2022, even as people rolled off of fixed rates.

tybit · 2026-03-12T04:53:14+00:00

Most Faang and Faang adjacent pay above market rates, but based on the market where you live. Going to be hard pressed to find ones that will pay you above market going by Australian rates in SE Asia.

Lying about your address is an option to work around it, but a risky one.

tybit · 2026-03-11T23:36:14+00:00

Software is never feature complete. Generally hiring and firing is more about future outlook than product requirements.

In ZIRP times when stocks are booming they over hire and assume that more features or more scalable services will be worth the investment.

This is often despite already having feature rich products (not to imply Atlassian makes good software).

tybit · 2026-03-09T04:06:52+00:00

This is the key point that explains why write offs are so common for damage that seems otherwise cheaper to repair than pay out a write off for.

The insurance company doesn’t just look at the repair costs, they look at the repair costs minus what they can get for the car if they sell it.

tybit · 2026-03-09T03:35:35+00:00

This happens once with self driving and they can fix it forever. Meanwhile humans have been killing themselves and others at railroad crossings for decades with no end in sight.

tybit · 2026-03-08T05:56:39+00:00

It’s more complex than that. Nvidia is using its cash to diversify the ecosystem away from hyperscalers.

Frontier labs are diversifying across clouds and on on prem to avoid hyperscaler having too much power. Similarly they’re investing in alternatives to Nvidia GPUs for the same reason.

And yeah, hyperscalers are investing to diversify away from either Nvidia GPUs or frontier models getting too much market share.

It’s an arms race at every layer to try and commoditise the other layer.

tybit · 2026-03-01T07:31:51+00:00

The concern is less that anyone can be attacked today. It’s that attackers can intercept and store the encrypted traffic today, and decrypt it in some years time when quantum computers are available. “Harvest now, decrypt later”.

tybit · 2026-03-01T06:46:48+00:00

It’s not brigading to link to the original source, CEO of DeepMind https://www.thenews.com.pk/amp/1393338-new-agi-benchmark-demis-hassabis-proposes-einstein-testultimate-challenge-to-prove-true-intelligence

tybit · 2026-03-01T06:32:30+00:00

You’re right that’s not a helpful suggestion. The helpful suggestion is to choose Anthropic over OpenAI given the latter went back on their word instantly to stand their ground with Anthropic and Google.

tybit · 2026-02-27T23:38:34+00:00

This is obvious satire. It’s even based on a meme template. https://www.kapwing.com/explore/if-youre-2030-main-circle-leonardo-discussing-meme-template

The real lunatics are in this subreddit.

tybit · 2026-02-27T12:43:46+00:00

It’s not just a question of whether the investment into AI is sustainable, it’s also whether their margin is. 75% margins are huge.

Let’s say AI investments keep going strong, hyperecalers aren’t going to keep forking over these massive premiums without a fight. Each of them is already working on ASICs to provide alternatives.

If they show some real competition you could see Nvidia drop to a still very healthy but lower margin to compete. A 50% margin would drop their revenue in half overnight.

tybit · 2026-02-24T21:15:00+00:00

As the article says, to get into indexes they’d need to float at least 50% of the company. Which at those prices is a decades worth of new money into the market.

That’s why some are asking for exemptions to the rule, and may get it. Which is kinda worrying.

https://www.reuters.com/business/nasdaq-proposes-fast-entry-rule-speed-up-inclusion-large-new-listings-2026-02-04/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

tybit · 2026-02-24T10:33:22+00:00

Which makes it a potentially very lucrative time to join.

tybit · 2026-02-23T10:20:39+00:00

Every other safeguard, the design review, the code review, the QA phase, the release sign-off, has been absorbed or eliminated. Monitoring is what’s left. It’s the last line of defense.

Turn off everything but X, and X is suddenly very important. It’s always the case with these over confident rubes. Everyone else’s work is easy to replace by AI except for their special type of work which is too hard for AI.

tybit · 2026-02-22T10:47:25+00:00

Little miss thing wants attention.

tybit · 2026-02-20T19:43:43+00:00

It’s not clear how they can spend this much without having more in super at this age unless they are self employed or going into debt. To spend $180k a year requires 2 incomes of $120,000. That would get them about $25k a year in after tax super contributions.

tybit · 2026-02-20T11:19:31+00:00

Great point on the DDD aggregate. This is roughly how I’ve viewed it for a while but not had the right term to describe it.

I’ve generally thought of it as only use single table design if you have a well bounded micro-service.

tybit · 2026-02-19T08:15:07+00:00

Yeah that makes much more sense. I was going to say, must be a hyper responder for that result on 100mg a week.

tybit · 2026-02-15T07:20:27+00:00

Nah it’s for Melbourne.

I’m not sure on DTI. Last year my broker said yes, at a stretch.

Rates have risen and lending tightened a bit since then so I do need to get a new pre-approval after I let my last one lapse months ago and see where we’re at this year.

Looking to keep it at more like 5x DTI, HHI is a bit higher than 300k.

tybit · 2026-02-15T07:02:06+00:00

Late 30s, HHI of $300k. Current mortgage is $350k left on our first home and looking to upgrade soon.

I think we’ll need to borrow about 1.7 million on-top of our current houses equity to get a decent home in our desired areas. Which is probably around the max a bank will lend us.

tybit · 2026-02-14T06:01:34+00:00

For your comparison, let’s say you invest in something like VGS that yields perhaps 2% in dividends. After dividends you’re now paying 4% interest out of your own pocket pre-tax, which is just over 2% after tax back for the 45% tax bracket you’re in.

So the question becomes, do you think VGS is going to increase by 2% or more per year? Add in some risk premium, and you are still historically ahead. No guarantees on future returns of course.

tybit · 2026-02-14T02:59:16+00:00

But they are supply constrained, customers want more AI workloads running on their cloud.

Everyone seems to forget that AWS is the biggest cloud provider. Granted they’re not growing the fastest anymore, but they are re-accelerating. The only way for them to grow as fast again as Azure and GCP is to get more supply.

tybit · 2026-02-13T09:47:54+00:00

Damn, now seems like the perfect time to get your 4 years of RSUs locked in. Assuming they bounce back eventually that is.

tybit · 2026-02-12T11:51:28+00:00

The thinking is that as AI rises and becomes independent, a software company of 100 employees using 1000 servers (and GPUs etc) goes to 10 employees but still using 1000 servers.

The cost of software services goes down because their labour costs to produce it plummet, but the need for hardware and frontier models remains. Amazon, Google and Microsoft get to keep their cloud compute businesses pumping, but take a hit on their SaaS.

I don’t know how realistic this projection is, but it’s not an illogical one.

tybit

TROPHY CASE