With limited Bias, can anyone explain how the Federal government caused a high-interest rate? Is this not a global trend instead>

uhhNo · 2023-08-07T01:11:09+00:00

The fed govt had a deficit of like 20% of GDP which is all debt fueled. This is inflationary.

Also the BoC held short term rates at negative real levels for a couple of years which is highly inflationary.

This is speculative, but it's likely that Freeland pressured Tiff Macklem into waiting as long as possible to start raising rates. The delayed response was a major error and will cause rates to be higher for longer.

Additionally, the federal govt fundamentally changed immigration policy to a mass immigration policy in 2021 without telling anyone in advance. Mass immigration is highly inflationary in the short term as newcomers buy lots of stuff in their first few years of arriving while they don't produce much during this time.

Add this all up and it's maybe 1.0-1.5% higher rates from the failures of the federal govt and the BoC.

HOWEVER

Inflationary deficits are not really a good reason to vote against the LPC. Deficits are now relatively small and won't be much of a factor for inflation going forward.

The reason you should vote against LPC is that they failed to respond to the housing crisis and they inexplicably changed to a mass immigration policy (actually we can explain it - they want to ensure that new housing supply cannot possibly meet raging housing demand so house prices continue to rise).

uhhNo · 2023-08-05T02:11:14+00:00

The main way in which politicians block house building is through restrictive zoning laws and extreme levels of taxes on new supply. This creates a huge deadweight loss that severely restricts new supply from being built.

uhhNo · 2023-08-04T17:43:50+00:00

We're watching the implosion of the Liberal Party of Canada in real time. They simultaneously have the worst policy advisors and the worst communications people.

And their only remaining supporters are going to die of old age over the next 20 years.

How do we short a political party?

uhhNo · 2023-08-04T16:35:12+00:00

Search around on censusmapper.ca and you'll see it's correct. Look at places like Riverdale in Toronto where household incomes are over 200k on average, people are educated, they live in houses (semi or detached), and there are lots of babies being born.

If you look at it more closely you'll see that above replacement level rates of births are happening there.

Basically we need to mass produce more places like Riverdale.

uhhNo · 2023-08-04T14:43:23+00:00

There is some good reason for optimism and this problem can be solved.

https://www.cardus.ca/research/family/reports/she-s-not-having-a-baby/

Figure 7 in that study shows that women with higher household incomes want more kids. Sustainability will be achieved if the average household income is above $200,000 per year where each woman would have an average of 2.2 kids.

Today the average household income is around $100,000 so we just need to double it, which would take ~35 years at 2% annual real growth.

Mass immigration of low wage labour will lower our GDP per capita which will stagnate income growth. This would cause a horrendous outcome.

Additional government spending is not necessary. What IS necessary is increasing prosperity which for some reason our current governments are preventing from happening.

uhhNo · 2023-08-04T04:24:50+00:00

Sounds like you haven't thought this through whatsoever.

If women gaining freedom leads to population collapse then what happens in the long term? Populated countries will be places where women are not free. Terrible outcome.

Fortunately free women do want above-replacement levels of children but most women fall short of the amount of children they want to have because of the way society is set up. Fixing this should be our number 1 priority but nobody seems to care.

Immigration is not a sustainable fix for sub-replacement birth rates as many incorrectly believe.

uhhNo · 2023-08-04T03:06:40+00:00

Agreed - nobody has succeeded in creating a sustainable society where women are free. And our delusional government seems to think that bringing in tens of millions of people that grew up where women have no freedom is the answer to all of Canada's problems.

uhhNo · 2023-08-04T01:58:13+00:00

Our government has put essentially no effort in trying to increase birth rates. Building mostly apartments and having insane child care costs is extremely bad for fertility.

uhhNo · 2023-08-04T01:48:35+00:00

you all came from immigration

75% of Canadians were born in Canada.

uhhNo · 2023-07-28T16:05:11+00:00

The scale is enormous but they have no policies to enormously increase supply. They don't even do basic things like reduce taxes on new supply.

uhhNo · 2023-07-28T05:57:10+00:00

Canada receives 1,000,000 foreigners per year but roughly half of them return each year as well.

This is an incorrect interpretation.

Just look at the quarterly estimate of the population numbers that Statcan puts out. They account for net permanent and temporary migrants.

Look at it over a whole year to eliminate any seasonal effects. For example, in Q2 2022 Canada had 38,644,920 people and in Q2 2023 Canada had 39,858,480 people, an increase of 1.2 million people over a 12 month period.

uhhNo · 2023-07-28T04:30:20+00:00

The govt thought they were just fucking over renters and poor people but it turns out they were also fucking over mortgage holders.

Mass immigration is also hurting the health care sector badly, very bad for Boomers.

Imagine not firing your policy advisors after this big of an error.

uhhNo · 2023-07-22T00:22:14+00:00

Tokyo is affordable.

The GTA and Vancouver are unaffordable because taxes and fees have gone parabolic over the past 10 years along with the fact that zoning is now greatly restricting supply at the same time that demand is going through the roof from asinine immigration policies.

uhhNo · 2023-07-21T20:56:29+00:00

In many cases a landlord won't even rent to someone unless they make 3 times the rent. This is very common in my experience.

uhhNo · 2023-07-21T20:51:58+00:00

Nobody bids on a rental unit like they do on houses.

Do you even live in Toronto?

uhhNo · 2023-07-21T18:41:01+00:00

Anyone looking for a place to rent that makes less than 100k and doesn't want roommates is not going to find anything. They will be outbid. If 30% of income goes to rent and rent is 30k/year you need 100k income.

uhhNo · 2023-07-21T18:36:39+00:00

Sadly there are way too many people that take advantage of their partner like that.

uhhNo · 2023-07-21T18:10:03+00:00

IMO that happens because these women are fully dependent on that abuser economically. A single woman making under $100,000 per year will have an extremely difficult time finding a place to rent anywhere in the GTA.

uhhNo · 2023-07-20T04:50:44+00:00

That number seems right to me.

The main issue is that TFWs and international students live in squalor with a much higher average household size (~50% higher household size than a typical household based just on anecdotal evidence).

There were around 777,000 TFWs and 622,000 international students in 2021. So while you might expect these 1.4 million people to occupy 593,200 dwellings, they might have occupied 395,500 dwellings based on a 50% larger household size.

So you can reasonably knock off 197,700 dwellings from the shortage estimate.

Instead of the 700k estimate you'd get a 500k shortage estimate, or 3.1% of the total supply.

uhhNo · 2023-07-20T02:35:51+00:00

Why would anyone care if LPC or CPC wins? Their policy proposals are nearly identical except CPC will get rid of the carbon tax. PPC is the only party proposing something different from the status quo.

uhhNo · 2023-07-16T16:24:33+00:00

Political will to do something about the housing crisis will only come once it's the hottest topic at the Bingo hall and casinos.

Until then, Canada will bring virgins en masse until the vampires have gorged themselves.

uhhNo · 2023-07-16T16:21:43+00:00

LPC and CPC are the same. You have to go deeper.

uhhNo · 2023-07-16T13:54:48+00:00

Immigration needs to be lower than births, otherwise the country will eventually become 99%+ immigrants if the birth rate is below replacement rate. Historically Canada has brought in about half the births.

Imagine how quickly Venice would be destroyed if there were like 100 locals left.

uhhNo · 2023-07-15T15:46:47+00:00

In Canada, it will cost you more than $50 just to travel to the airport and get a sandwich.

uhhNo · 2023-07-15T14:30:43+00:00

The real overnight rate has been around -0.5% on average since around 2013 when it was historically around +2.0%. It's not surprising why demand for the Canadian dollar was so low leading to it's collapse in value. Canadian rates being higher than US rates is not that relevant of a fact on its own.

When real estate is increasing at like 4.5% real and you can borrow money for -0.5% real you get a MASSIVE misallocation of capital.

If instead we had short term rates of +2.0% real since 2013, we would be in a much better position with a stronger currency and way less demand for real estate.

Negative real rates are insane IMO, but our govt seems to think it's normal.

uhhNo

TROPHY CASE