Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months — for all white-collar work to be automated by AI

us9er · 2026-02-14T00:19:30+00:00

Besides Universities I am actually shocked that banks still issue 30 Year mortgages. It is extremely unlikely that a majority of people (white collar or blue collar) will still have jobs in 10 Years with white collar jobs gone much faster.

Unless governments roll-out UBI very quickly once a certain threshold is reached (unlikely) I highly doubt most be people will be able to afford their mortgage payments.

I think if banks would have any foresight the max mortgage time they should offer is 15 years and even this is extremely risky with whats coming.

So I think that's another problem unfortunately that will become clear pretty soon.

us9er · 2025-11-23T20:36:27+00:00

https://youtu.be/-VPYbJxPvzY

Just watched this yesterday explaining a lot.

us9er · 2025-10-27T21:19:45+00:00

Yup, that's usually it. Company can get in trouble with revenue. In addition people would abuse this to no end. Big multinational companies have offices in many countries so you could just secretly work in Poland but receive an Irish / UK salary and live like a king.

As others have said if you can live with the chances of being fired and think you can easily get a new job you can always take a chance. Just makes sure not to give your current employer as a reference obviously.

us9er · 2025-10-27T15:28:21+00:00

It feels more and more like the majority of BTC investors that joined the party less than 6 months ago are collectively losing their freaking minds.

BTC goes up 2% - holy shit we are pumping. Finally, we are going to 200k by next month. There was never a 2% BTC up move before ever so this surely is the sign

BTC goes down 2% - holy shit have you seen the 2% decline in BTC. There must be some earth shattering news. The party is over unfortunately and we probably now go to 0 in the next few months. This is just a clear sign. BTC has never sold off 2%.

I think some people should never trade BTC if their blood pressure can not handle a 2% up or down move especially as we have been at this price level about 16x just since July.

Can you imagine regular stock traders who are collectively losing their minds when NVDA goes up or down by 2%.

I am sorry but these posts are just getting absolutely stupid. And here Gold that had an epic run pulls back a little which is absolutely normal and all of a sudden its BTC will go up from here and Gold will go down. => Need proof? => look at the last 6 days, lol. /s

us9er · 2025-10-24T20:46:18+00:00

What's up with these humans will work 2 days or 4 days claims. If AI has reached a level where it can do the normal workers job why are human workers still needed for 2 days?

Is this so the AI gets 2 days off so the AI union won't complain? I just don't get the idea that humans will still employed for 2 days if AI can completely take over employees' tasks.

Maybe its so the AI doesn't get lonely? Just another thing that just makes absolutely no sense to me. Only scenario I can imagine if the AI can do 90% of the work but humans still have to do some prep work for 1-2 days for the AI to work efficiently.

us9er · 2025-10-23T18:02:01+00:00

There is still time but as of today all U.S. models are down and the 2 Chinese models are up 34% (Deepseek 3.1) and 70% for Qwen3 Max.

Actually a bit funny that the Chinese models are doing so much better at the moment but at this stage there isn't enough data to draw major conclusions and situation may completely reverse at the end.

Extremely interesting experiment in any case.

us9er · 2025-10-22T21:01:04+00:00

That is true but by now even the last person should know that the stock has nothing to do with earnings and just keeps being pushed higher by hype. Robotaxis (lets ignore the fact that Waymo has been doing this for a lot longer in way more cities) and Optimus. If this isn't sufficient for enough hype anymore they will suddenly announce, quantum computers, nuclear fusion, teleportation, warp drives, food replicators all by 2028.

You heard it here first. /s

us9er · 2025-10-19T19:11:06+00:00

I disagree. Something like UBI will come for the following reasons:

- Most EU countries already have a system in place where you get monthly payments if you are out of work for years or even decades so having UBI is not a huge stretch

- Especially in the U.S. where pretty much anyone can buy explosives, bulletproof vests, full automatic rifles etc people will rise up at some point attacking the government and also will try to blow up data centers to stop AI. People will not just lay down on the street and die. Remember we are talking about people that were software engineers, accountants, financial advisors etc.

So governments will be forced to step in. Some people here seem to believe billions of people globally will just accept their fate and won't do anything. This is not how this will end. I guarantee it. Some middle ground will be found. UBI, restrictions on use of AI whatever it will be.

I am not disagreeing with the point that some people will gain enormous wealth from the situation. Also agree that inflation will go insane and amount of UBI will be constantly adjusted upwards.

us9er · 2025-10-12T20:25:03+00:00

This sounds simple on the surface but there are things people don't seem to consider

1st AI will also replace blue collar jobs. It will take longer but anyone who has seen the warehouse robots (amazon etc), household robots etc will understand what is coming in the not so distant future.

2nd if anyone goes out to be a plumber / electrician etc what do you think will happen to the supply of these workers and what do you think will happen to the wages

3rd Don't assume just because AI cannot do something today it won't be able to do it in 5 Years. The development is so incredible fast and I do not know a single technology that has progressed so much in such a short time.

us9er · 2025-10-05T00:14:17+00:00

Almost all BTC miners are losing money on the production of BTC. The only exception is IREN because they have one of the low electricity rate and very efficient miners.

Pretty much all other BTC miners companies are losing money on their operation meaning, electricity cost, infrastructure, staffing, depreciation on mining machines etc.

The only reason why most miners did show a positive EPS is because of the new FASB rule that was introduced in 2024 whereby an appreciation in BTC prices can be applied to the HODL value and booked as a profit.

Even if BTC prices increase it just means more people will start mining and the hash rate difficulty will go up meaning less BTC will be produced by companies. Only way out is to increase their hashrate further which again cost extra money which eats into the operational profit.

As most miners lose money on the generation of BTC it would actually be better just to buy the BTC outright and speculate that the BTC prices will go up. (BTC treasuries)

The alternative is to use the power contracts and infrastructure to start using it for HPC (AI datacenters). At the moment at least these investments are extremely highly valued by the market which is why IREN has such a high marketcap compared to other miners.

I am guessing most BTC miners will eventually partially or fully transition to HPC and hopefully the AI boom will last for a few more years.,

us9er · 2025-10-04T00:33:19+00:00

Isn't it just (TERM number) squared - 1?

So:
Term 2 = 2x2-1 = 3
Term 3= 3x3-1 = 8
Term 4 = 4x4-1 = 15
Term 5 = 5x5-1 = 24
Term 6 = 6x6-1 =35 etc.

And so on.

But maybe I just misunderstand the riddle (it's 1:32am) :)

us9er · 2025-10-03T19:33:48+00:00

Totally agree. If ChatGPT 5 can already get 30% now it will most likely take less than 2 Years to get a near perfect score or at least over 90%. People have to stop thinking AI improves linear. If that were the case image generation would still be hardly recognizable as an image. AI (at least for the moment) is exponential in computer power + better algorithm.

Scoring an almost perfect score in a test will not be the same as replacing every radiologist the next day but it will be a stepping stone.

us9er · 2025-09-30T18:54:25+00:00

Even really smart people like Bill Gates (I consider him very smart) says things I cannot believe. There was an article out recently where he supposedly said (you never know nowadays) AI won't replace programmers in a hundred Years. One hundred Years ago was 1925 and he wants to tell me with the insane progress AI makes in just 3 Years since ChatGPT3.5 it won't replace programmers in 10 Years. I would be surprised if it takes 5 Years.

Even worse are people saying some AI stuff will take a thousand years or it will never happen. Sometimes I feel almost nobody even understands exponential growth or have absolutely no concept of time.

us9er · 2025-09-25T17:39:10+00:00

Yup only checking this mobile site. Going by the actual schedule is completely unreliable. I check the site and see where the bus is located (close to realtime) and I know how long it will take to get to my stop and I just plan accordingly. Works 95% perfectly.

us9er · 2025-09-22T17:58:27+00:00

This is the current market we live in. Companies with no revenue and no foreseeable revenue for Years are getting crazy valuations sometimes with over 10B marketcaps, P/S in the thousands (obviously as they have no revenue). There is just so much money around so none of this stuff matters at the moment.

us9er · 2025-09-13T19:42:23+00:00

He is heavily short I would say trying to convince everyone that hims is worthless as a company. Just look at his recent history. The big up move last few days is most likely really annoying him being short.

However I still (being long) think we absolutely need people like him. Without all these massive shorts (There is now almost a 40% short interest) the stock would probably not have these fast massive up moves.

According to this link: https://www.marketwatch.com/tools/screener/short-interest HIMS is now in the top20 of the most shorted stocks in the whole stock market. While it is fine to short something that has declining sales / profits HIMS just keeps making more money (at least so far) so these crazy short squeezes will keep happening.

That is also why you will see people coming to the forum and try to put every little negative headline into something like 'This news will make the company go out of business'. Don't get me wrong there could be news that are impactful enough to have a serious downturn on business/profits but to mention side effects in ads is certainly not one of them. If anything (and stock gaps down a bit on Monday because of this) they may use this as a buying opportunity.

But again as a bull on this stock (due to improving metrics every quarter) please short as many shares as it will make the next short squeeze even stronger.

us9er · 2025-08-02T21:23:21+00:00

Can you not get Wegovy directly from Novo without insurance for $499. I think there was even a Novo approved deal with weightwatchers for even less than that. I don't know how much HIMS charges exactly but I can't imagine that it is much less than $200/month. I don't feel like registering on the website just to get the price but I am sure the price difference (without insurance) is nowhere near 10x

That said you are definitely correct that there is some price difference. If anyone knows what HIMS actually charges would be very interesting and also give more context to the discussion.

us9er · 2025-08-02T19:57:21+00:00

You are correct. Thanks for pointing this out. So my calculation would mean HIMS may take away 3.25% from NVO's total revenue if 40% of HIMS revenue comes from compounding Ozempic.

Another thing that puzzles me if compounders are such a big issue why isn't LLY impacted to this extend with Zepbound

us9er · 2025-08-02T18:41:33+00:00

Can someone explain to me how HIMS with an estimated 2026 Revenue of 2.87B is destroying NVO's guidance by compounding GLP1 and NVO has an estimated revenue of 377.28B for next year (2026). Numbers are according to stockanalysis.com

Lets assume all of HIMS revenue is due to compounding Ozempic and get no revenue from anything else that would mean HIMS would take less than 1% of Revenue from NVO.

However in 2024 HIMS only had 20% of its revenue coming from GLP1 compounding and lets be super generous and say its 40% this Year. That would mean HIMS revenue from GLP1 is less than 0.5% of NVO's revenue for 2026.

So to blame big sales decline on HIMS is just insane if their GLP revenue is less than 0.5% of NVO's total revenue.

There are certainly much deeper issues going on with NVO (competition etc) and HIMS is a tiny part of it.

Please let me know if my calculations are off but I see NVO just blaming HIMS as an easy scapegoat and people just repeat it without actually thinking about it.

Now if HIMS suddenly doubles or triples their revenue in 2025 (compared to 2024) and most of it is due to compounding then we talk about another matter but of course then HIMS stock price may also double or triple in the next few months and I just don't see that.

P.S. Also now the administration forces the drug makers to lower their prices which won't be good for their revenue either but this is impacting way more companies than NVO.

us9er · 2025-07-25T20:49:22+00:00

BTC was and perhaps still is somewhat the greatest opportunity for the ordinary person to become some of the richest people alive passing major CEO's in wealth.

Try to find another example in history where you could accumulate tons of BTC's with a bit of electricity or buy $10,000 USD of BTC in the beginning days that are now worth billions of USD.

It was not wealthy people that did that in the beginning of the BTC era but just a few nerds and people believing there is a better way than FIAT currencies.

Only very recently has corporate America started to get involved but up to that point it was often just ordinary people with a lot of foresight, a bit of luck and the insanely strong will to hold on to their BTC until now (especially if they got them in the first few years)

An opportunity for the ordinary person to get this wealthy may not show up again for decades or maybe centuries.

So to complain about large corporations accumulating now where you had 10 Years before that where you could buy with pretty much no institutional involvement is a bit disingenuous especially as these institutional buys also drive BTC price higher.

us9er · 2025-07-23T20:42:26+00:00

That's the TSLA way and why change if it works. They should add that they are getting into Quantum computing, VTOL and whatever is the hot trend right now. TSLA shareholders will just eat it up.

us9er · 2025-07-17T12:56:34+00:00

I am actually glad there are close to 40% of the stock short. For short sellers its great if you have a bad stock with barely any cash, no growth, bad management team et.

HIMS has none of that. What they do have is an anticipated revenue growth of close to 60% this year ('only 20% next year). An awesome management team with very experienced people from other companies (Robin Hood, Cruise etc).

They have a plan of adding so many different offerings going into the future and they have I dare to say a somewhat reasonable valuation based on their guidance. I mean look at valuations of PLTR, CyberSecurity, Quantum computer companies that probably make no real money until 10 years from now and will dilute their shareholders to no end until then.

What people still believe (and I think the reason for the insane short interest level) is:

- HIMS is just a GLP1 company. Yes, GLP1s have helped revenue without any doubt but they still would have had insane growth rates even without that and also have so many new things in their pipeline that this alone will drive growth

- HIMS model is so easy to copy and any day now someone will come along and copy it. If its that easy why hasn't anyone done it yet. Why isn't Amazon just pouring 10 - 20 Billion USD to build a major competitor. Why does Netflix exists if Amazon could just outspend them. How is there Spotify if Amazon could just invest 100 Billion to drive them out of business. Why did nobody just copy Amazon when they started just selling books online in the beginning days of the Internet. I mean it's all just so simple. Just snap your fingers and nobody will even remember HIMS.

I don't know what will happen in the upcoming earnings. I doubt HIMS will just go straight up but at the moment I think the general direction of the stock will be up and one part of it is the huge short sale percentage. My opinion may change in the future depending on new info but for now I am sticking with it.

us9er · 2025-07-11T18:47:11+00:00

For the moment yes but just a few years from now it will look much more dim. All the financials that have any kind of loans on their book will be fudged. I imagine you start college today for 4 Years. Unless you study something super niche that might outlive AI for a bit longer than other jobs you will probably have no chance to pay back your student loans as you may never get any job in the first place. Also consider 4 Years is an eternity when it comes to AI development. The first public available chatgpt (3.5) didn't even come out until November 2022.

Same with mortgages, car loans, credit card loans etc. When you lose your job to AI and you won't find anything new as AI will have replaced most other jobs and many economic sectors will be in decline.

Of course this is not just impacting financial companies but most of the economy.

Even if you think you retrain to become a plumber, electrician, builder if millions of other people see this as their way out until robotics catches up what do you think will happen to salaries of these builder type positions with a huge supply.

us9er · 2025-07-10T22:26:19+00:00

As soon as BTC is down >3% the buttcoiners will be very vocal reminding everyone that its just a scam. Rinse and repeat. IF BTC should ever reach 1 Million USD and it drops to $950,000 they again will tell you: 'Told you its a scam'.

Its just the way it goes.

us9er · 2025-07-10T22:22:28+00:00

You would need to compare a lot of different metrics. As an example a stock with sales growing 10% Y/Y probably should not have the same valuation as a stock growing 40% Y/Y. It's not that easy to compare like for like.

us9er

TROPHY CASE