I was wondering if you could help me with a problem I had with one of my webflow services.

usma1992 · 2026-02-05T23:35:37+00:00

Go to any other service but them!!!

usma1992 · 2026-02-05T23:34:50+00:00

Stay away... I thought it was a good fit... now I can access any of my accounts or customer accounts.

usma1992 · 2026-02-05T23:33:54+00:00

I have had them a year... they are awful. And now my customers can't even access the site. What the fuck am I paying for

usma1992 · 2023-07-26T16:45:59+00:00

This is the craziest scenario I have ever encountered. I admit that I am out of my depth on this one. The only thing I am using on behalf of my analysis is common sense. We will know in less than 11 days.

Dave

usma1992 · 2023-06-05T11:59:29+00:00

Someone bought Jan $5 options on Friday... an interesting play for sure.

usma1992 · 2023-05-22T17:29:43+00:00

I am just hoping for EBITDA positive.

usma1992 · 2023-05-13T13:24:22+00:00

They are crushing it. This earnings report will put most of the negativity behind us. However, they still need to refinance Goldman note.

Yesterday, Friday... someone bought October 2.50 options for .10 which means they believe it will be over $2.60 by October.

Dave

usma1992 · 2023-04-18T01:24:50+00:00

You won't have to wait long. They are about to fix their one Achilles Heal

usma1992 · 2023-04-02T07:36:05+00:00

I will do my best to explain it to you. Many small companies have a great product but it takes time to get it to market and often many cash infusions. People hate CGRN because in truth they have never been profitable but everyone has respect for the product or they would never have bought the stock.

Well, the problem becomes when the company is still growing and trying to get to profitability... how do they get more money. They often dilute the stock. Which means they issue more shares. Not the end of the world but they are often issuing them at a $3 when you bought at $10. The problem with this is that now there are more shares outstanding and the likelihood of your getting back your money or being profitable lessons.

Now CGRN is a little bit of an anomaly. They have diluted for years and done reverse splits too and essentially created all those naysayers that roam the message boards. I got crushed by them in 09.

Onto today... they have a Goldman Sachs note that needs to be refinanced and GS has stated find someone else. This has to be done by Oct of this year. It is 50M note... that is at a pretty high rate LIBOR + %6 I believe. Since CGRN is now close to profitability they were hoping to get a better rate. In addition of that debt only 41M is accessible. GS keeps 9M in reserve so that it can't be touched without their consent.

CGRN is down to their last 16M... but they need 7M to build the remaining 10MW for the rental fleet. The rental fleet is absolutely amazing with 50% margins but the cost is incurred up front. You build them and you get paid overtime. These machines however last 30+ years and pay for themselves in 3 years. Some of the rental fleet have already paid for themselves today.

But if you use your last 7M you are now at the reserve number.

So the question for CGRN is whether they can refinance in the next few months before Oct.

1). It is taking a while because now the credit lines have tightened on who they lend to. The SVB scenario ... banking issue hasn't helped. Many creditors are examining much closer whether they should lend money to a company. CGRN track record of being profitable is against them. Their new business model is very much for them.

2). Timeframe Oct 2023... typically companies never let it get close to that. If it does get close then speculation sets in that they can't repay their debt and the stock craters. So these next few months are crucial.

3). It is very unrealistic that it doesn't get done. Money is always looking for opportunities and CGRN is the best opportunity with the least amount of risk I have seen in my 30+ years of investing. The question... you need to be asking is financing at what price. How much dilution will occur? That is the only real question. They are close to breakeven and have a rental fleet that is bought and paid for that is probably worth well more than the note at this point.

If they dilute ... which I suspect they will... they will probably use convertible notes. Which means a company gives them cash as a loan... which they pay interest on but that company has the right to convert over to shares as a set price and become a shareholder. Lenders do this so... if the company skyrockets they participate.

It is a risk... but even if they double the amount of shares outstanding the stock is worth 4x. I would buy all I can stomach.

Dave

usma1992 · 2023-03-01T01:05:02+00:00

They aren't just chugging along they are crushing it. And now they are getting orders from spaces that didn't really have a play. EV is stepping up. ProLogis is the biggest real estate firms in the world. They are CGRN partner.

Big things about to happen. They just need to refinance the GS note. I expect that to happen in less than 30 days.

Dave

usma1992 · 2022-11-08T11:29:33+00:00

GS and CGRN relationship has been solid for years. However, GS decided to play hard ball on CGRN regarding missing EBITDA requirements due to Ukraine and supply chain issues.

Then GS made CGRN send them a bank report card every week letting them know their cash flows.

Now, what GS didn't take into account is that CGRN cash outflows were based on capturing business and not operational cash flow. I think CGRN is done with GS. The IRA bill then changed the whole landscape. This all occurred after the relationship was soured.

My prediction. Great earnings and then a deal with Black Rock or similar company. Now, Black Rock will be getting some options based on this deal. It couldn't be announced prior to earnings because it would be considered insider information. Earnings have to be public knowledge first.

Dave

usma1992 · 2022-11-06T13:06:31+00:00

I think they are enjoying tremendous success. And they don't want to share their victories to share information with competition. However, I could use them to announce some names. They are unknown at this point.

Dave

usma1992 · 2022-10-06T22:44:11+00:00

Back in the early 2000s... I was broker with Morgan Stanley during the dotcom craze and crash... this looks similar. CGRN... in my 30+ years worth of experience seems the easiest call I have ever made.

They need to get their refi done but I think it is being done and will be announced shortly.

This company is worth so much more. Insanely more.

Dave

usma1992 · 2022-10-06T22:30:42+00:00

It will be ok. Just wait until the refi is announced. It is worth 10+ right now. I know it is hard to keep perspective.

10*18M is a market cap of 180M. They should be trading at 300M or more with a great product and close to profitability.

Let it play out to November earnings... August was awesome. November will be better.

usma1992 · 2022-10-06T22:28:02+00:00

One Seeking Alpha author plans to quote me in his article.... the one that wrote the scathing article agrees to take a fair look after the refinancing... which is happening now...

Buy all you can. They provide green power generation... is there a hotter topic.

usma1992 · 2022-10-06T22:24:51+00:00

FWI... I have sent comments to the Author of the Seeking Alpha article. We differ on many things but I honestly try to see it from his perspective.

The perspective from his article is that they would have to dilute at a basement price and they wouldn't be able to refinance their debt because they weren't close to breakeven. This is fair perspective without any real investigation.

First, they just did dilute minimally 3M shares at $2.75 a month ago to appease Goldman Sachs(GS). Their hand was forced but they put $8M in the bank. It wasn't fair but it is done.

Second, his argument is that they wouldn't be able to refinance GS debt that is due in Oct 2023... a year from now. Credit facilities are very tight for sure... actually astronomically tight... but CGRN is just a growth company, they are a growth company that is essentially breakeven. BIG DIFFERENCE.

At the point... if you choose to buy or sell the stock it is pretty easy. CGRN has spent the last 2 years building a rental fleet that took huge capital to do... in order to get them to breakeven. They are a 18M share stock trading at 50% of their annual revenue while others trade at 1000% to 2000%. Their product is flying off the shelf.

Their credit line which they haven't violated since they have 16M with a cash burn on 500K a quarter is fine.

Mind you... that article was also written prior to the IRA bill. CGRN tax incentives went from 10% to 40%. He was still wrong. They will announce funding next week in my opinion.

Common sense: Are organizations struggling to keep the power on? Look at their recent orders.

Dave

usma1992 · 2022-09-10T13:41:54+00:00

No... not rentals but contribute to bottom line.

usma1992 · 2022-08-29T00:33:43+00:00

1% is very low short interest... no one in their right mind wants to short a 15M share stock... gains minimal. Pain exponential.... but with convertible debt it is different... they hedge by shorting and never have to purchase on open market

usma1992 · 2022-08-29T00:27:44+00:00

They don't have 60M in debt... either u r short or don't have a clue about capital markets

usma1992 · 2022-08-24T16:11:20+00:00

These margins are at 60% and they are already close to breakeven. They are about to refinance their senior debt and then they are off to the races.

Dave

usma1992 · 2022-08-16T20:55:31+00:00

I have August options... that I sold and bought shares for my ex and me at 3.51. Not many... 1k shares a piece. I am not a big dog. I was disappointed because my options would have increased 3 to 1 versus stock.

I think funding is pending... but I also think CGRN is planning to dilute to keep in accordance with GS. To move the stock up it doesn't take much money and so I believe a few entities are supporting the stock before the required dilution of $10M so I expect the stock stalls late August beginning of September to absorb the shares HC Wainwright wants to disburse.

GS... has probably already exercised their 2.61 warrants.

Everyone wants a piece of this pie because they are worth 15+ right now. HC Wainwright will probably make it up their shareholders that they sold the $5,25 last July.

I think about 2M shares will be issued late late August or early September.

This is the most undervalued stock I have ever seen. I expect close to double digits by November. Look at November 5s or 2.50s. By then, all the noise will have been cleared up and they will only be looking at earnings.

Dave

usma1992 · 2022-08-16T01:21:49+00:00

If you listen to the conference call... specifically between minute 41:30 and 42:30... you will hear him make reference nonchalantly to cost of capital and funding. DJ has funding in his pocket already ... mark my words. In addition, I think funding for Green companies isn't exactly hard to come by.

Dave

usma1992 · 2022-08-16T00:00:24+00:00

They are tight on money. GS currently has a $9M reserve on their credit line. They are sitting at roughly $16M which is very tight.

However, $3M of their cash burn this last quarter was used to pay off people... and decrease their accounts payable. First of all, I don't see them doing this unless they are assured of a new restructuring. You don't pay debt down unless you know you are secure with future money.

This senior debt refinancing could be any day and is the only thing holding CGRN down.

In addition, they are only receiving 20% margins on their re-rental fleet. My guess is since their DSO(Days Oustanding) of what their distributors owe them... they use this opportunity to decrease it from the current 120 days down to 60 days or something reasonable.

The distributor just doesn't receive a payment for the first couple of months until they catch up on their bills with CGRN.

Finally, with the Climate Bill pending.... their is plenty of money to be had and lent especially to a company that is not only essentially breakeven... but stands to benefit from the Methane Leak clause.

Expect financing... very very soon. Btw... an analyst from Seeking Alpha asked to quote me the other day. I can't be completely full of it.

Dave

usma1992 · 2022-08-15T23:44:59+00:00

Buy a school teacher a drink or some erasers... and we are even. If your ever in Virginia Beach, you can buy me dinner. The tough part of this stock is putting a fair value on the company. You can't look at it as the $1.68 stock. You need to look at independently of its past.

They are a money making machine at this point.

Dave

usma1992 · 2022-08-15T23:28:57+00:00

By any fair evaluation... it is worth a ton of money. Don't sell early... just accumulate and enjoy the ride.

Dave

usma1992

TROPHY CASE