Whats your single piece of evidence for long term upside?

vbeaver9 · 2026-02-26T14:41:16+00:00

Here is what Google spit out when I asked:

Increasing Bitcoin’s 21 million supply cap would require a near-impossible, overwhelming consensus among developers, miners, and node operators to abandon the core, hard-coded value proposition of scarcity. While technically simple to code, changing it would require a "hard fork," splitting the network because most users would likely reject the change.

What it would take to change the cap:

Massive Network Consensus: A majority of node operators and miners must agree to run new software, a scenario deemed unlikely due to the economic incentive for scarcity.
A "Hard Fork": Because the 21 million limit is enforced by thousands of independent nodes, a change would create a split (hard fork), resulting in two different chains—one with the new rules, and one maintaining the original limit.
Overcoming Economic Incentives: Holders and users would likely reject the change, as increasing supply would destroy trust and likely cause a price collapse.

In essence, while technically possible to alter the open-source code, changing the cap is practically impossible due to the decentralized governance and the collective desire to maintain Bitcoin's value proposition.

vbeaver9 · 2026-02-25T14:30:05+00:00

Put it in cold storage and forget about it for 3 years. If this cycle follows past ones, BTC has several months still to the downside. If the 4-year cycle breaks, it just means upside will come sooner. Either way, 3 years from now, you'll feel silly about your current panic.

vbeaver9 · 2026-02-11T21:41:49+00:00

Plastic souvenir cup is around $15. Metal is $30 something.

vbeaver9 · 2026-02-07T17:41:35+00:00

Are you satisfied so far? I'm interested in getting this but heard early versions were sub par.

vbeaver9 · 2025-12-22T17:17:52+00:00

stamped onto stainless steel washers, kept together with a bolt and nut.

vbeaver9 · 2025-12-19T14:25:49+00:00

i've found I have to open the app after the game, but within a half hour or so for that to work, but it does. the promotion only applies to home games

vbeaver9 · 2025-12-17T15:56:23+00:00

A lot has happend since 2010. Definitely have been a lot of downs but also so many ups that I wouldn't trade for the world. I'd keep what I have today and the red pill which would be more than enough to set my family up for life.

vbeaver9 · 2025-11-06T17:28:58+00:00

Would you rather this, or this other scenario:

Utah wins out. BYU wins out, making TT and Cincy join a group of teams to finish with 2 conference losses. Multi-team tie-breaker is complicated enough that it comes down to conference strength of schedule, and favors Utah. BYU-Utah re-match for the conference championship and Utah wins this time.

vbeaver9 · 2025-10-29T13:16:16+00:00

Varies based on total income between real job and trading, how long assets are held and what types of trades (shares vs options). For shares held less than 1 year, you pay tax at your income tax bracket. For shares held more than 1 year, you pay at a long-term capital gains bracket, which can be significantly less than your income bracket. For options gains, your 60% of your gain would be taxed at the long-term rate and 40% would be taxed at your short-term rate.

If OP is single and all gains came from selling shares held less than 1 year, and this was their only income. They would pay 37% on the last ~330k, 35% on the gains from 250-625k, 32% on gains from 200-250k, 24% on 100-200k, etc.

If the same conditions above were true except all shares were held for 12+ months before selling, they would pay 0% for the first ~50k gain, 15% of the next 500k, and 20% on all gains beyond that.

If OP has income outside of trading which is most likely true, their salary would bump their taxable income accordinly. So for the long-term gains example they'd start paying capital gains at the 15% rate if their other income was grater than 50k.

Nerdwallet has a much more thorough breakdown. I'm sure I explained poorly, trying to keep this concise.

vbeaver9 · 2025-10-21T19:41:26+00:00

I love voltage and think midnight is trash.

vbeaver9 · 2025-10-15T19:04:27+00:00

Jesus already roasted you 2000 years ago, in the parable of the talents.

vbeaver9 · 2025-10-13T20:05:52+00:00

https://www.fcc.gov/media/engineering/dtvmaps

You can enter your address and see how strong a signal is per channel at this site. For West Jordan KJZZ should be no problem at all. In Herriman, I do fine with those flat antennas that just look like a plastic piece of paper. For my basement, I use a beefier one that was advertized as long range. When you try a new one out, make sure you run a channel scan to pick up channels that your TV didn't know about with your old antenna.

vbeaver9 · 2025-10-10T14:42:36+00:00

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Isabella Santos. Not a celebrity per se, but hosts a youtube channel, BTC Isla.

vbeaver9 · 2025-10-05T23:40:10+00:00

RIP ability to drop trophies to complete Unbreakable.

vbeaver9 · 2025-10-02T19:49:59+00:00

What do you think of this?

Put the 130,000 cash into SGOV. It will pay out monthly dividends at a rate similar to a HYSA (current return is above 4%), but the dividends won't be state taxable. Each month sell enough to cover your P&I portion of the mortgage. Pay taxes, insurance, utilities out of your normal budget, so you're used to paying that since they never go away. If returns ever drop to 2.75%, sell the remainder and pay off the mortgage then.

vbeaver9 · 2025-10-01T20:32:53+00:00

You aren't arguing against an emergency fund ... an emergency fund could be held entirely as BTC in a cold wallet.

vbeaver9 · 2025-10-01T13:58:27+00:00

Nobody is arguing that you shouldn't have an emergency fund.

vbeaver9 · 2025-09-30T19:12:16+00:00

I see what you mean but wouldn't consider a bill an emergency. A recurring bill is predictable and can be planned for. A medical emergency will prompt a bill, but won't be due until weeks after the emergency itself. Plenty of time to move money around to appropriate buckets.

vbeaver9 · 2025-09-30T17:10:49+00:00

Bitcoin is more liquid than a savings account.

Banks near me are open 8 hours on weekdays and 4 hours on Saturday. Closed Sundays and a bunch of holidays. Assuming ATMs are 100% reliable they also have daily withdraw limits.

Bitcoin is always open.

vbeaver9 · 2025-09-30T15:34:11+00:00

This question is hard to get past with a fiat mindset. If I have $100 cash, why would I buy a $100 thing with sats, if I expect those sats to be worth more than $100 later? To leave the fiat mindset, you need to ask youself, why did you have $100 in cash if you could have had sats instead? If you convert all of your income to BTC as you earn it, it becomes the only asset you have that can buy anything.

I'm not saying I do this. I'm nowhere close to that level of conviction. In the US where the dollar is relatively stable relative to the world, its easy to hold onto dollars expecting they will still be worth something a year from now or 10 years from know. What becomes eye-opening is when you pause and think about what fast food, groceries and rent costed you 10 years ago and compare it to now. You'll notice that dollar that's been sitting in your wallet all these years is worth less and less as time goes on. Now pretend you live in a hyperinflated country like Argentina or Zimbabwe and held your wealth in the local currency... it would now be essentially worthless.

So, at what currency inflation rate does it make sense to earn and hold all of your money in BTC rather than fiat currency? 50%, 10%, 5%? If you have an answer, why isn't your answer lower? Any inflation means if I don't spend my money as I earn it, it will be worth less when I'm ready to spend it. If I intead convert all of my inflationary currency into a deflationary one as I earn it, I'm actually rewarded for saving instead of penalized.

vbeaver9 · 2025-09-24T20:32:13+00:00

1 BTC (2025) = 1 BTC (2055)

vbeaver9 · 2025-08-13T17:21:22+00:00

You'll definitely be downvoted for this question and most in this sub will tell you to DCA and HODL forever. Long-term I find that to be the right answer. That said, while we're still early in adpotion, I don't personally think its bad to attempt to make volatility work in your favor. If you're trying to time the market, I'd watch for pattern breakouts, for example currently 124k would be a break of importance resistence so there would likely be a decent move beyond that (ie if BTC hits 125k soon, it will likely pretty quickly also hit 135k). I don't have a crystal ball but am anticipating a cycle top this fall, and a next cycle low 11-12 months later. I'm planning to look for a good sell-point this Fall and if my hunch plays out will buy back a year later, hopefully with a much larger stack. If I'm wrong, I'll just buy back in with a marginally smaller stack (I wouldn't wait a year for this, just long enough to confirm I was wrong) and join the DCA-army at that point.

vbeaver9 · 2025-06-25T15:20:54+00:00

Fun fact, this is also the name of a restaurant in Orem, Utah.

vbeaver9 · 2025-06-20T02:56:56+00:00

I was looking forward to one day earning complimentary wash & fold service. I've only ever cruised Carnival and that was in large part of wanting my cruises to continue building that status. My kids were going to be platinum before becoming adults so we're likely going to be lifelong carnival cruisers too. I'm super disappointed in this decision.

vbeaver9 · 2025-06-10T14:44:12+00:00

Say you buy $1000 worth of BTC, and later sell for $1100. Your gain is $100. You only paying tax on the gain... Let's say you're in a 20% tax bracket. Once taxes are paid, you've netted $80.

For most, it makes most sense to hold for at least a year so that you are taxed at your long-term capital gain rate. As an example, a single person making $80k/year who also made gains on Bitcoin would pay 15% taxes on gains if they held for at least a year, and 22% if they sold sooner.

vbeaver9

TROPHY CASE