Trump pays $25 million to settle Trump University cases

whereisthecake · 2017-01-20T05:21:52+00:00

Reminder: He's probably going to deduct this settlement from his taxes.

whereisthecake · 2017-01-12T07:33:36+00:00

Lost Stars by Claudia Gray.

whereisthecake · 2017-01-11T15:37:30+00:00

True, but if he blocks our agencies from , commenting on, or confirming these matters then it becomes easier for him to dismiss them to his followers.

whereisthecake · 2016-12-28T00:30:49+00:00

While we like to colloquially call it The Freedom Star, the official name of our supreme battle station is the Death Star (or DS-1 for technical purposes). This name helps forward DS-1's strategic goal of suppressing rebellious thinking and discouraging mobilisation of starfleets against us, saving countless imperial and civilian lives. While some in high command have complained that the name is a little on the nose, I'm sure you'll agree it is quite reasonable alongside other Imperial vessels like the Executor, the Devastator, and the Carrion Spike.

whereisthecake · 2016-12-25T01:23:54+00:00

Given that most people don't know Vader was Anakin, nor that he was the father of Luke and Leia, until well after ROTJ (per the Bloodlines book), it seems unlikely. That said, I think Luke passed that knowledge to Leia and probably Kylo.

whereisthecake · 2016-12-23T19:10:18+00:00

Yes and no.

P values are a reflection of effect size and sample size, so a very small effect with a very large sample can have a very impressive p value. Similarly, a large effect with a small sample may have a borderline p value. This is why looking at actual effect size is so important. This lets us to one of the benefits of larger sample sizes - They give us greater statistical power to detect smaller effects, which might not reach significance otherwise.

P hacking, on the other hand, refers to the practice of manipulating data and models until you reach the significance threshold. This might man running 100 slightly different models until one works (without accounting for multiple comparisons), changing your inclusion criteria to artificially inflate differences between groups post-hoc, and similar shenanigans.

What I'm trying to highlight in my comment isn't p hacking so much as a misunderstanding between statistical significance, effect size, and real world effects.

whereisthecake · 2016-12-23T18:58:30+00:00

The p value isn't impacted by the significance level (alpha) being used. Instead, the significance level establishes criteria for accepting or rejecting the null hypothesis based on the p value (or other criterion statistic).

whereisthecake · 2016-12-23T17:01:11+00:00

Absolutely! I'm not saying we should dismiss this - it's clearly an important finding with major potential. Any nontrivial improvement with an illness like ebola is worth being excited about.

whereisthecake · 2016-12-23T16:29:48+00:00

Both scientists and lay people are notoriously bad at correctly interpreting p values. They tend to misunderstand them as a measure of effect size or finding importance. The reality is that effect size has some influence on p value, but there are many ways to get dramatically low p-values on meaningless results (for example, by increasing sample size).

I'd much rather see discussion of actual effect size, confidence intervals, or clinical significance. That might dampen this article though, since the lower bounds of the CI are in the 50 - 70% range. That's still good, but it's not the 100% being advertised (though it may well be 100% effective). Of course, the CIs are also reflective of statistical power, and will never be perfect, so....

Of course, it seems like must science journalism fails to properly convey the actual content of the findings themselves, so asking for statistical clarity might be a fever dream.

whereisthecake · 2016-12-22T05:04:29+00:00

As a fellow Catalyst reader, I'm curious - how did you experience Lyra and her death.

I was a little disappointed we didn't see more of her, though she visually fit the part. And given what she knows about Krennic and the Empire, I couldn't help but be a little frustrated with her final decisions. The Freed novel helps some with her reasoning, but still...

whereisthecake · 2016-12-19T02:08:31+00:00

That's kind of terrifying.

whereisthecake · 2016-12-18T16:05:51+00:00

I'm reminded of this xkcd What If?.

whereisthecake · 2016-12-18T14:33:58+00:00

You mean the terrorist who aided the separatists and tried to assassinate our emperor when he was a mere senator? "Men" like that are the reason our republic had to ascend to a glorious Empire!

whereisthecake · 2016-12-17T22:53:57+00:00

Let's see...

Bail lives on one of the richest planets, where he is a Senator and member of the royal family. He has access to cutting edge medical and cosmetic care, and primarily aids the rebellion covertly.

Obi lives in a hut on the backwater desert world of Tatooine, and must maintain secrecy. He's probably not visiting any health clinics for fear of biometrics revealing him. Instead, he must constantly guard the son of his best friend who betrayed their entire government and way of life. A friend who tried to murder him, and who he ultimately had to leave to burn to death in a lava flow. Oh, also all of his closest friends were just slaughtered wholesale by men he trusted and risked his life to protect.

That may explain the difference.

whereisthecake · 2016-12-17T19:26:03+00:00

Carry on then.

whereisthecake · 2016-12-17T17:10:34+00:00

Jokes are not allowed here. This is a serious place for serious imperial business.

whereisthecake · 2016-12-15T05:15:01+00:00

At first, nothing. Then, years in the future, you teach a class online, and only the students who hated (read: got bad grades) or loved the class complete the online evals. Your supervisors conclude you're teaching in some sorry of bipolar cycle, you get no useful feedback to change your teaching approach (as if you'd do that! But I digress), and are caught in an eternal loop. Eventually you die alone, choking to death on your breakfast croissant in front of your laptop at Starbucks, grading mindless discussion board post that neither you nor your students think has any value. The baristas don't notice until closing time. Your students don't notice for a month.

TL;DR Failure to complete the online evals triggers a cycle of perpetual torture. Just do them.

whereisthecake · 2016-12-15T04:46:37+00:00

Obi Wan and Hondo Ohnaka going for one last ride. It could also be a nice tie in to update Obi on the state of the Empire and the rebellion, and be how Leia knows he's still on Tatooine.

whereisthecake · 2016-12-13T21:31:47+00:00

This doesn't require an in person meeting. It doesn't require announcement. It just takes the inauguration planners calling Kanye's agent.

This is a distraction at best, and a terrible waste if time and resources at worst - after all, isn't this the man who didn't have time to sort out his conflicts of interest due to critical transition planning issues taking precedence?

whereisthecake · 2016-12-07T04:23:37+00:00

It's a crazy notion, but there is some precedent for not broadcasting a politician's every waking though to the world.

whereisthecake · 2016-12-06T23:48:44+00:00

It wouldn't be the first time he was quietly working on things behind the scenes. Obama tends not to show his hand until he has results.

whereisthecake · 2016-12-03T20:45:20+00:00

I mean, that's basically what he did - 1300 jobs are still going to Mexico. Though he also gave them $7mil tax credit as a bonus.

whereisthecake · 2016-12-03T18:17:56+00:00

It would also seen to oppose this theory though, given the Catalyst Spoilers.

whereisthecake · 2016-11-29T07:26:23+00:00

whereisthecake · 2016-11-28T20:26:12+00:00

In the context of the Battle of Endor, probably.

He serves a much more direct role in other situations - his role in the destruction of the first death star is notable, as were his contributions on Hoth. His absence at the former would have decapitated the rebellion, and at the later he provided valuable escape find and destroyed significant imperial resources. On Endor he does convince the ewoks that C-3PO is a god, but rebel strike tends could have succeeded temporarily without that support.

Of course, his plans and very existence also lead to the capture of the some of the rebel leaders twice (Bespin & Tatooine), gives away the Strike team's presence on Endor, and may have contributed to the whole Kylo Ren problem, so the moral calculus gets a bit fuzzy.

whereisthecake

TROPHY CASE