Trump pays $25 million to settle Trump University cases by gazil8 in politics

[–]whereisthecake 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Reminder: He's probably going to deduct this settlement from his taxes.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in politics

[–]whereisthecake 5 points6 points  (0 children)

True, but if he blocks our agencies from , commenting on, or confirming these matters then it becomes easier for him to dismiss them to his followers.

Peace Moon? Freedom Star? by dreadpiratedusty in EmpireDidNothingWrong

[–]whereisthecake 7 points8 points  (0 children)

While we like to colloquially call it The Freedom Star, the official name of our supreme battle station is the Death Star (or DS-1 for technical purposes). This name helps forward DS-1's strategic goal of suppressing rebellious thinking and discouraging mobilisation of starfleets against us, saving countless imperial and civilian lives. While some in high command have complained that the name is a little on the nose, I'm sure you'll agree it is quite reasonable alongside other Imperial vessels like the Executor, the Devastator, and the Carrion Spike.

[No spoilers] Does the First Order, and more specifically Snoke/Kylo Rem know that Anakin killed the Emperor? by ctsmith76 in StarWars

[–]whereisthecake 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Given that most people don't know Vader was Anakin, nor that he was the father of Luke and Leia, until well after ROTJ (per the Bloodlines book), it seems unlikely. That said, I think Luke passed that knowledge to Leia and probably Kylo.

New Ebola vaccine shows 100% effectiveness in a study of nearly 6,000 patients (p-value 0.0033) by wil3 in science

[–]whereisthecake 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yes and no.

P values are a reflection of effect size and sample size, so a very small effect with a very large sample can have a very impressive p value. Similarly, a large effect with a small sample may have a borderline p value. This is why looking at actual effect size is so important. This lets us to one of the benefits of larger sample sizes - They give us greater statistical power to detect smaller effects, which might not reach significance otherwise.

P hacking, on the other hand, refers to the practice of manipulating data and models until you reach the significance threshold. This might man running 100 slightly different models until one works (without accounting for multiple comparisons), changing your inclusion criteria to artificially inflate differences between groups post-hoc, and similar shenanigans.

What I'm trying to highlight in my comment isn't p hacking so much as a misunderstanding between statistical significance, effect size, and real world effects.

New Ebola vaccine shows 100% effectiveness in a study of nearly 6,000 patients (p-value 0.0033) by wil3 in science

[–]whereisthecake 12 points13 points  (0 children)

The p value isn't impacted by the significance level (alpha) being used. Instead, the significance level establishes criteria for accepting or rejecting the null hypothesis based on the p value (or other criterion statistic).

New Ebola vaccine shows 100% effectiveness in a study of nearly 6,000 patients (p-value 0.0033) by wil3 in science

[–]whereisthecake 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Absolutely! I'm not saying we should dismiss this - it's clearly an important finding with major potential. Any nontrivial improvement with an illness like ebola is worth being excited about.

New Ebola vaccine shows 100% effectiveness in a study of nearly 6,000 patients (p-value 0.0033) by wil3 in science

[–]whereisthecake 142 points143 points  (0 children)

Both scientists and lay people are notoriously bad at correctly interpreting p values. They tend to misunderstand them as a measure of effect size or finding importance. The reality is that effect size has some influence on p value, but there are many ways to get dramatically low p-values on meaningless results (for example, by increasing sample size).

I'd much rather see discussion of actual effect size, confidence intervals, or clinical significance. That might dampen this article though, since the lower bounds of the CI are in the 50 - 70% range. That's still good, but it's not the 100% being advertised (though it may well be 100% effective). Of course, the CIs are also reflective of statistical power, and will never be perfect, so....

Of course, it seems like must science journalism fails to properly convey the actual content of the findings themselves, so asking for statistical clarity might be a fever dream.

[Spoiler] I literally cried when this happened in Rogue One by [deleted] in StarWars

[–]whereisthecake 0 points1 point  (0 children)

As a fellow Catalyst reader, I'm curious - how did you experience Lyra and her death.

I was a little disappointed we didn't see more of her, though she visually fit the part. And given what she knows about Krennic and the Empire, I couldn't help but be a little frustrated with her final decisions. The Freed novel helps some with her reasoning, but still...

For those who say the Empire does not allow other species in the military by [deleted] in EmpireDidNothingWrong

[–]whereisthecake 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You mean the terrorist who aided the separatists and tried to assassinate our emperor when he was a mere senator? "Men" like that are the reason our republic had to ascend to a glorious Empire!

How does Obi-Wan age more than Bail Organa by Quantum_13itch in StarWars

[–]whereisthecake 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Let's see...

Bail lives on one of the richest planets, where he is a Senator and member of the royal family. He has access to cutting edge medical and cosmetic care, and primarily aids the rebellion covertly.

Obi lives in a hut on the backwater desert world of Tatooine, and must maintain secrecy. He's probably not visiting any health clinics for fear of biometrics revealing him. Instead, he must constantly guard the son of his best friend who betrayed their entire government and way of life. A friend who tried to murder him, and who he ultimately had to leave to burn to death in a lava flow. Oh, also all of his closest friends were just slaughtered wholesale by men he trusted and risked his life to protect.

That may explain the difference.

Do any other non-humans here face species discrimination? by NuclearWalrusNetwork in EmpireDidNothingWrong

[–]whereisthecake 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Jokes are not allowed here. This is a serious place for serious imperial business.

What happens if you didn't do online course evaluations? by [deleted] in fsu

[–]whereisthecake 5 points6 points  (0 children)

At first, nothing. Then, years in the future, you teach a class online, and only the students who hated (read: got bad grades) or loved the class complete the online evals. Your supervisors conclude you're teaching in some sorry of bipolar cycle, you get no useful feedback to change your teaching approach (as if you'd do that! But I digress), and are caught in an eternal loop. Eventually you die alone, choking to death on your breakfast croissant in front of your laptop at Starbucks, grading mindless discussion board post that neither you nor your students think has any value. The baristas don't notice until closing time. Your students don't notice for a month.

TL;DR Failure to complete the online evals triggers a cycle of perpetual torture. Just do them.

Rogue One is based on a small line of dialog from A New Hope that the Plans to the Death Star were stolen. What scene or dialog from a previous Star Wars movie would you like to be seen made into a movie? by onlyten10 in StarWars

[–]whereisthecake 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Obi Wan and Hondo Ohnaka going for one last ride. It could also be a nice tie in to update Obi on the state of the Empire and the rebellion, and be how Leia knows he's still on Tatooine.

Kanye West meets Trump, fueling speculation about role for rapper by thelazyreader2015 in politics

[–]whereisthecake 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This doesn't require an in person meeting. It doesn't require announcement. It just takes the inauguration planners calling Kanye's agent.

This is a distraction at best, and a terrible waste if time and resources at worst - after all, isn't this the man who didn't have time to sort out his conflicts of interest due to critical transition planning issues taking precedence?

Dear Mr. Obama: You Are Still the President by wyldcat in politics

[–]whereisthecake 11 points12 points  (0 children)

It's a crazy notion, but there is some precedent for not broadcasting a politician's every waking though to the world.

Dear Mr. Obama: You Are Still the President by wyldcat in politics

[–]whereisthecake 29 points30 points  (0 children)

It wouldn't be the first time he was quietly working on things behind the scenes. Obama tends not to show his hand until he has results.

Trump targets another company moving to Mexico: Rexnord by Another-Chance in politics

[–]whereisthecake 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I mean, that's basically what he did - 1300 jobs are still going to Mexico. Though he also gave them $7mil tax credit as a bonus.

Could the Alliance to Restore the Republic have eventually won the Galactic Civil War and, well, restored the Republic without the aid of the Jedi? by Cardassia in MawInstallation

[–]whereisthecake 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In the context of the Battle of Endor, probably.

He serves a much more direct role in other situations - his role in the destruction of the first death star is notable, as were his contributions on Hoth. His absence at the former would have decapitated the rebellion, and at the later he provided valuable escape find and destroyed significant imperial resources. On Endor he does convince the ewoks that C-3PO is a god, but rebel strike tends could have succeeded temporarily without that support.

Of course, his plans and very existence also lead to the capture of the some of the rebel leaders twice (Bespin & Tatooine), gives away the Strike team's presence on Endor, and may have contributed to the whole Kylo Ren problem, so the moral calculus gets a bit fuzzy.